AUD/USD is set to breach falling wedge
Downside risks that pressured the rate down to the 0.7870 mark on Tuesday have prevailed in this session, as well. The rate was supported by the weekly S1, but after rebounding from the bottom channel line, the Aussie was set for another plunge.
It seems that the rate has stopped at the 0.7840 mark and therefore confirmed the bottom boundary of a falling wedge. The rate is located near the pattern’s ending point that suggests a soon breakout, possibly to the upside.
Thus, the upper target for the following 24 hours could be set near the aforementioned weekly S1 at 0.7879.
It seems that the rate has stopped at the 0.7840 mark and therefore confirmed the bottom boundary of a falling wedge. The rate is located near the pattern’s ending point that suggests a soon breakout, possibly to the upside.
Thus, the upper target for the following 24 hours could be set near the aforementioned weekly S1 at 0.7879.
Comment:
The falling wedge which was formed last week was breached to the upside on Thursday. Further appreciation was halted by the 55-hour SMA that provided unbreakable resistance until mid-today.
Despite being hindered by this moving average for several hours, it is still expected that the Aussie could move higher, thus approaching the weekly S1 and the 100-hour SMA at 0.7880. In case the given resistance fails to restrict the pair, a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern would be formed.
Conversely, it should not be dismissed that the bearish sentiment might still prevail and send the pair for a test of the two-month low or the weekly S2 at 0.7822 and 0.7811, respectively.
By and large, priority is given to the bullish scenario.
The falling wedge which was formed last week was breached to the upside on Thursday. Further appreciation was halted by the 55-hour SMA that provided unbreakable resistance until mid-today.
Despite being hindered by this moving average for several hours, it is still expected that the Aussie could move higher, thus approaching the weekly S1 and the 100-hour SMA at 0.7880. In case the given resistance fails to restrict the pair, a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern would be formed.
Conversely, it should not be dismissed that the bearish sentiment might still prevail and send the pair for a test of the two-month low or the weekly S2 at 0.7822 and 0.7811, respectively.
By and large, priority is given to the bullish scenario.
Comment:
Despite continuous attempts to move past the 55-hour SMA, AUD/USD’s direction on Friday was entirely dependent on the given moving average.
As a result, the Aussie moved away from this line on Monday morning and reached a new ten-week low at 0.7800. The pair was testing this psychological level mid-session, but nevertheless showed reluctance to move lower.
As technical indicators demonstrate that there is still some downside potential, it is possible that the rate depreciates down to the weekly S1 at 0.7760.
As apparent on the chart, the Aussie has formed a short-term descending channel. If the 0.78 mark is to hold, this could point to a possible appreciation in this session, possibly up to the 55– and 100-hour SMA circa 0.7840.
Despite continuous attempts to move past the 55-hour SMA, AUD/USD’s direction on Friday was entirely dependent on the given moving average.
As a result, the Aussie moved away from this line on Monday morning and reached a new ten-week low at 0.7800. The pair was testing this psychological level mid-session, but nevertheless showed reluctance to move lower.
As technical indicators demonstrate that there is still some downside potential, it is possible that the rate depreciates down to the weekly S1 at 0.7760.
As apparent on the chart, the Aussie has formed a short-term descending channel. If the 0.78 mark is to hold, this could point to a possible appreciation in this session, possibly up to the 55– and 100-hour SMA circa 0.7840.
Comment:
As apparent on the chart, no massive changes have occurred to the AUD/USD exchange rate during the past 24 hours. The pair bounced off the 55-hour SMA once again and, as a result, was pushed down to the lower channel boundary at 0.7791.
The Aussie has since reversed to the upside in an attempt to re-test the 55-hour SMA—a strong resistance barrier limiting the given currency for the past four days—once again. As the rate has failed to edge higher for some time now, this could pressure the Aussie to fall even lower.
Nevertheless, it is expected that this resistance area could be finally breached to allow for a test of the upper channel boundary circa 0.7833. This pattern might even surrender under the pressure of bulls; thus, the pair could test the weekly PP at 0.7867.
As apparent on the chart, no massive changes have occurred to the AUD/USD exchange rate during the past 24 hours. The pair bounced off the 55-hour SMA once again and, as a result, was pushed down to the lower channel boundary at 0.7791.
The Aussie has since reversed to the upside in an attempt to re-test the 55-hour SMA—a strong resistance barrier limiting the given currency for the past four days—once again. As the rate has failed to edge higher for some time now, this could pressure the Aussie to fall even lower.
Nevertheless, it is expected that this resistance area could be finally breached to allow for a test of the upper channel boundary circa 0.7833. This pattern might even surrender under the pressure of bulls; thus, the pair could test the weekly PP at 0.7867.
Comment:
Even though the Aussie was stranded below the 55-hour SMA for three trading session, bulls found strength and pushed the given currency above this resistance area.
As apparent on the chart, the rate was reluctant near the upper channel boundary for some trading hours. However, the strong upside risks that prevailed the marked during the first hour on Wednesday allowed the Aussie to surge up to the 0.7860 mark.
The rate was testing the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP mid-session. This mark, however, is unlikely to be breached.
The base scenario favours the pair making a rebound from the upper channel boundary, reinforced by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, and remaining between all three SMAs by mid-Thursday.
Even though the Aussie was stranded below the 55-hour SMA for three trading session, bulls found strength and pushed the given currency above this resistance area.
As apparent on the chart, the rate was reluctant near the upper channel boundary for some trading hours. However, the strong upside risks that prevailed the marked during the first hour on Wednesday allowed the Aussie to surge up to the 0.7860 mark.
The rate was testing the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP mid-session. This mark, however, is unlikely to be breached.
The base scenario favours the pair making a rebound from the upper channel boundary, reinforced by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, and remaining between all three SMAs by mid-Thursday.
Comment:
Thursday’s trading session did not introduce any changes to the overall price level, as AUD/USD remained slightly below the 200-hour SMA for the whole session.
The massive plunge during the first trading hour pushed the rate down to an intersection of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. This strong bearish momentum was sufficient to breach this support, and the Australian Dollar thus returned back in the descending channel.
The closest support is set by the relatively distant ten-week low at 0.7791; this shows that the current depreciation could go as low as this mark. The rate, however, should eventually reverse to the upside and remain below the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.
Thursday’s trading session did not introduce any changes to the overall price level, as AUD/USD remained slightly below the 200-hour SMA for the whole session.
The massive plunge during the first trading hour pushed the rate down to an intersection of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. This strong bearish momentum was sufficient to breach this support, and the Australian Dollar thus returned back in the descending channel.
The closest support is set by the relatively distant ten-week low at 0.7791; this shows that the current depreciation could go as low as this mark. The rate, however, should eventually reverse to the upside and remain below the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.
Comment:
After passing the rather strong support against the US Dollar, the Australian Dollar has continued to decline in the last 24 hours. The pair has reached below the 0.7750 mark during the middle of Friday’s trading.
Due to that reason a review of the charts was done, which revealed that the pair is in a rather long term, large scale channel down pattern.
Meanwhile, if one looks at the chart, it can be seen that there are no notable support levels until the monthly S1, which is located at the 0.7716 level. Most likely the rate will reach that level and rebound against it, if the pair simultaneously touches the support of the mentioned descending pattern.
Due to that reason a review of the charts was done, which revealed that the pair is in a rather long term, large scale channel down pattern.
Meanwhile, if one looks at the chart, it can be seen that there are no notable support levels until the monthly S1, which is located at the 0.7716 level. Most likely the rate will reach that level and rebound against it, if the pair simultaneously touches the support of the mentioned descending pattern.
Comment:
The Australian Dollar demonstrated high volatility on Friday, as the rate was fluctuating in the 0.7800/0.7737 area during the whole trading session. It did, however, manage to recover almost all of its daily losses by early Monday.
By and large, the Aussie’s movement during the past month was guided by a falling wedge and it continues to edge lower within the bounds of the given pattern. It seems that the wedge might be breached this week, thus paving the way for a subsequent surge up.
As the rate faces a significant resistance cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP, the expected breakout might be welcomed with strong opposition.
Thus, the rate could halt near the 55-hour SMA or the weekly PP and try to test the weekly and monthly S1s.
The Australian Dollar demonstrated high volatility on Friday, as the rate was fluctuating in the 0.7800/0.7737 area during the whole trading session. It did, however, manage to recover almost all of its daily losses by early Monday.
By and large, the Aussie’s movement during the past month was guided by a falling wedge and it continues to edge lower within the bounds of the given pattern. It seems that the wedge might be breached this week, thus paving the way for a subsequent surge up.
As the rate faces a significant resistance cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP, the expected breakout might be welcomed with strong opposition.
Thus, the rate could halt near the 55-hour SMA or the weekly PP and try to test the weekly and monthly S1s.
The expected breakout of the short-term falling wedge did not occur during the last 24 hours, as downside risks prevailed and thus pressured the Australian Dollar southwards. The rate fell down to the 0.7811 mark and, as a result, made a full retracement of its six-week low.
During the last few hours, the rate has fluctuated around the monthly S1 at 0.7822, showing some reluctance to move either direction. Technical indicators are strongly bearish due to the massive fall in value apparent this week. However, recovery is a likely option in this session.
In general, the rate could remain between the weekly and monthly S1s for the remaining trading week, moving towards the 55-hour SMA at 0.7860 mark.