Fiber 1.16156 - dividing line, to the extent feasible.
We can mark 1.16156 as Rubicon.
The only thing that hangs us here at current 1.17 level is long term strategy following accounts. It is more powerful and relax part of big HF, mostly seems run by algos with low reaction to the news and more technically oriented.
My humble view that 1.16 is the last fort for this algos, once triggered we can see sharp liquidation of core long fiber positions. How about support at 1.1147/67 to be touched first than? Do not scary with longs?
But until that happy moment of fiber price collapse we will stay in wait and see boring mode.
Small HF and smart mthfckrs from big banks offload their strategy longs and are already tactical players.
Regarding eurozone fundamental side we have:
- Currency is overpriced on the trade weighted side. European goods are less competitive. This is future headache, but no one really thinking about it.
- EU Recovery Fund still not ratified (weird story). In fact all this up move was on the back of this talks about size, price and other idiotic talks about this mythical fund that can happen not to arrive at all.
- Europe Covid-19 numbers are still rising and already more over the first wave figures. Some cities are facing lockdown. 4 countries that are oriented on the tourists this is story for a new bankruptcy of middle class service companies.
- Eurozone inflation data is poor. ECB must act already, but the head is politician and lawyer, more than famous or even infamous financier. This is producing tail risks of political decision rather then financial one in the future.
- When we face another black swan, fiber is not safe-haven.
On the other side of the pond
FED do not implementing new FOMO or provides additional QE and it will last now till the end of the year?
Anyway till the next Mr. Turdburger eaten out on the future road.
Conclusion - Situation is dangerous for eur longs. I will stay keen with sell on spikes strategy until FED is silent.
Hope it helps. Good luck in trading ahead, folks.
The only thing that hangs us here at current 1.17 level is long term strategy following accounts. It is more powerful and relax part of big HF, mostly seems run by algos with low reaction to the news and more technically oriented.
My humble view that 1.16 is the last fort for this algos, once triggered we can see sharp liquidation of core long fiber positions. How about support at 1.1147/67 to be touched first than? Do not scary with longs?
But until that happy moment of fiber price collapse we will stay in wait and see boring mode.
Small HF and smart mthfckrs from big banks offload their strategy longs and are already tactical players.
Regarding eurozone fundamental side we have:
- Currency is overpriced on the trade weighted side. European goods are less competitive. This is future headache, but no one really thinking about it.
- EU Recovery Fund still not ratified (weird story). In fact all this up move was on the back of this talks about size, price and other idiotic talks about this mythical fund that can happen not to arrive at all.
- Europe Covid-19 numbers are still rising and already more over the first wave figures. Some cities are facing lockdown. 4 countries that are oriented on the tourists this is story for a new bankruptcy of middle class service companies.
- Eurozone inflation data is poor. ECB must act already, but the head is politician and lawyer, more than famous or even infamous financier. This is producing tail risks of political decision rather then financial one in the future.
- When we face another black swan, fiber is not safe-haven.
On the other side of the pond
FED do not implementing new FOMO or provides additional QE and it will last now till the end of the year?
Anyway till the next Mr. Turdburger eaten out on the future road.
Conclusion - Situation is dangerous for eur longs. I will stay keen with sell on spikes strategy until FED is silent.
Hope it helps. Good luck in trading ahead, folks.
Cheers!