Hey guys,
It has been a while...
I would like to share some quick ideas with you, you got a minute?
Let's get started with the analysis for the DXY at the quarterly time-frame. We've been talking about that potential right shoulder on the DXY right.. well a ton of retail is shorting that 'POTENTIAL' right shoulder. Well, one thing
I will say is that you NEVER trade right shoulders, you trade the necklines.. but you might ask, how do we know retail is short? Well if you look at the order books / COT Reports, institutions are heavy long the Dollar and retail is on the other side, like always.
Besides that small edge of having institutions long..
I took a dive into the overall Quarterly and Monthly chart, we are sitting at supply which means that price should go lower, and it did months ago when I posted the fresh levels with the article named -> Faith of the Dollar, or something like that. But if you flip your overall bias and look at the history from 2008 towards this crisis, the dollar has been in a bullish run ever since, so it makes sense that this crisis will keep pushing to the upside. But yeah that is also a small edge in my opinion, and my game is to stack a lot of small edges.
So what I take from the Q & M Chart;
Bullish;
- TL Rejection.
- Overall Bullish trend since 2008.
- Retail is heavy short (currently)
Bearish.
- Q/M Supply.
Conclusion 1: More bullish than bearish.
Second step in my thought process is located at the weekly time-frame for EUR/USD, because I'll only play the EU..
The 9th of March Weekly Close was an imbalance candlestick. The 16th of March Weekly Close was an engulfing candlestick, creating supply. The 23rd of March Weekly Close was a bullish engulfing candlestick, to fill up the supply created in the previous 2 weeks pattern. So... Down (Imb) + Down (Eng) + Up (Come back for the short orders) ... Well after the shorts are triggered, March 30th hit and of course the shorts pushed price down.
Conclusion 2: It took the institutions 4 weeks to position themselves short.
Third step into my mind.. still EU chartzz..
The last week of April is something I would like to share, price bounced from 1.08 towards 1.10, created several bullish breakouts on the lower timeframes for people to go long, but I was only interested in watching the 1.10 area,
because if that breaks my weekly thought process would have been mindfucked. Well last Friday price closed below its 15th of April body close, telling me short season is starting from monday (this week) (shared in the community weekly watch list)
Conclusion 3: Price failed to break 1.10 and closed below the 15th high, creating another body lower high.
What's next?
Daily is not looking that bearish right now for the EU positions, why? Price is sitting at a major level of interest for bulls. Maybe more retail longs, maybe institutions trying to get some hedges in. So from monday and tuesday, I've some shorts stacked. Now it is waiting time, and see the DXY break out of 101 and see EU follow lower. Higher time-frames is what we play atm and they align.
Next for our community is to see this play develop and if we're right, capatalize on the next and maybe strongest trend in recent times. DXY +108?
Maybe I am wrong, which can easily happen. But for me it all makes sense.
Hope you're all well, and this opened your mind.
It has been a while...
I would like to share some quick ideas with you, you got a minute?
Let's get started with the analysis for the DXY at the quarterly time-frame. We've been talking about that potential right shoulder on the DXY right.. well a ton of retail is shorting that 'POTENTIAL' right shoulder. Well, one thing
I will say is that you NEVER trade right shoulders, you trade the necklines.. but you might ask, how do we know retail is short? Well if you look at the order books / COT Reports, institutions are heavy long the Dollar and retail is on the other side, like always.
Besides that small edge of having institutions long..
I took a dive into the overall Quarterly and Monthly chart, we are sitting at supply which means that price should go lower, and it did months ago when I posted the fresh levels with the article named -> Faith of the Dollar, or something like that. But if you flip your overall bias and look at the history from 2008 towards this crisis, the dollar has been in a bullish run ever since, so it makes sense that this crisis will keep pushing to the upside. But yeah that is also a small edge in my opinion, and my game is to stack a lot of small edges.
So what I take from the Q & M Chart;
Bullish;
- TL Rejection.
- Overall Bullish trend since 2008.
- Retail is heavy short (currently)
Bearish.
- Q/M Supply.
Conclusion 1: More bullish than bearish.
Second step in my thought process is located at the weekly time-frame for EUR/USD, because I'll only play the EU..
The 9th of March Weekly Close was an imbalance candlestick. The 16th of March Weekly Close was an engulfing candlestick, creating supply. The 23rd of March Weekly Close was a bullish engulfing candlestick, to fill up the supply created in the previous 2 weeks pattern. So... Down (Imb) + Down (Eng) + Up (Come back for the short orders) ... Well after the shorts are triggered, March 30th hit and of course the shorts pushed price down.
Conclusion 2: It took the institutions 4 weeks to position themselves short.
Third step into my mind.. still EU chartzz..
The last week of April is something I would like to share, price bounced from 1.08 towards 1.10, created several bullish breakouts on the lower timeframes for people to go long, but I was only interested in watching the 1.10 area,
because if that breaks my weekly thought process would have been mindfucked. Well last Friday price closed below its 15th of April body close, telling me short season is starting from monday (this week) (shared in the community weekly watch list)
Conclusion 3: Price failed to break 1.10 and closed below the 15th high, creating another body lower high.
What's next?
Daily is not looking that bearish right now for the EU positions, why? Price is sitting at a major level of interest for bulls. Maybe more retail longs, maybe institutions trying to get some hedges in. So from monday and tuesday, I've some shorts stacked. Now it is waiting time, and see the DXY break out of 101 and see EU follow lower. Higher time-frames is what we play atm and they align.
Next for our community is to see this play develop and if we're right, capatalize on the next and maybe strongest trend in recent times. DXY +108?
Maybe I am wrong, which can easily happen. But for me it all makes sense.
Hope you're all well, and this opened your mind.