How long can a counter stays in the dark valley (bear mode)? Well, it can take months to years. As it is for Oil now, you can see clearly the 3 bearish trend lines remain intact. And I have shown you the other 2 support lines, 17.51 on 19 Nov 2001 and 10.83 on 15 Feb 1999 which the Oil price might revisit again.
When ? Your bet is as good as mine. It is possible after touching the 19 Nov 2001 support, there might be a correction towards the 1st bearish trend line (dashed line). It is here that short term traders would play the long positions to catch the available pips here. If you have a clear strategy and know how to profit from it, of course this is an opportunity. But just because it is made available in TV by me or any other authors, please do not use it blindly.
Commodities trading is volatile and thus the movement within the day itself can means making profits in the morning and loss in the afternoon. Are you mentally prepared for it ? Do you have the time to monitor it ? How about your capital ?Putting it here would means an opportunity costs for you not able to deploy into other assets. So, there is no best strategy, it all depends on your personality, time to trade, risk appetite, etc. That is why trading is so versatile. There are traders who make it rich in trading by the minutes and there are others who trade infrequently and hold positions for weeks or months before selling/buying.
The challenge with most retail traders is they keep switching from intraday to swing to position to long term. They think that by widening the stop loss , there is a chance of recovery. Maybe. But, trust me (based on painful experience), it is a strict NO NO. If you had been stopped out , it means a fe w things :
1. The market go against you - ie. your analysis is right , strategy is OK but still you are stopped out. Accept it and move on. Good example is last Friday jobless claims results - many were surprised that the market had a rally thus if you short like me, then you are stopped out.
2. Your analysis was wrong - maybe you did a countertrend trade - as in you short instead of long . Depending on what indicators or strategy you used, if the market is heading down and you long, that is a counter-trend strategy. Maybe you are riding on the pullback as a way to make money, it is OK if you know how. Or you use too small a time frame and go into long but was not able to make much profits because the main trend is bearish.
3. SL is too tight - Some traders are too stingy or greedy I should say, haha. You want to take as much from the Market as possible but failed to give back to him. So , you think you could outsmart Mr Market by giving him as little as possible with a tight SL. It may works if your strategy is really good and precise but there would come a time when Mr Market hit you back with a short covering and take back what you owed him. So, be reasonable . Give and take.
Hope this is helpful.
When ? Your bet is as good as mine. It is possible after touching the 19 Nov 2001 support, there might be a correction towards the 1st bearish trend line (dashed line). It is here that short term traders would play the long positions to catch the available pips here. If you have a clear strategy and know how to profit from it, of course this is an opportunity. But just because it is made available in TV by me or any other authors, please do not use it blindly.
Commodities trading is volatile and thus the movement within the day itself can means making profits in the morning and loss in the afternoon. Are you mentally prepared for it ? Do you have the time to monitor it ? How about your capital ?Putting it here would means an opportunity costs for you not able to deploy into other assets. So, there is no best strategy, it all depends on your personality, time to trade, risk appetite, etc. That is why trading is so versatile. There are traders who make it rich in trading by the minutes and there are others who trade infrequently and hold positions for weeks or months before selling/buying.
The challenge with most retail traders is they keep switching from intraday to swing to position to long term. They think that by widening the stop loss , there is a chance of recovery. Maybe. But, trust me (based on painful experience), it is a strict NO NO. If you had been stopped out , it means a fe w things :
1. The market go against you - ie. your analysis is right , strategy is OK but still you are stopped out. Accept it and move on. Good example is last Friday jobless claims results - many were surprised that the market had a rally thus if you short like me, then you are stopped out.
2. Your analysis was wrong - maybe you did a countertrend trade - as in you short instead of long . Depending on what indicators or strategy you used, if the market is heading down and you long, that is a counter-trend strategy. Maybe you are riding on the pullback as a way to make money, it is OK if you know how. Or you use too small a time frame and go into long but was not able to make much profits because the main trend is bearish.
3. SL is too tight - Some traders are too stingy or greedy I should say, haha. You want to take as much from the Market as possible but failed to give back to him. So , you think you could outsmart Mr Market by giving him as little as possible with a tight SL. It may works if your strategy is really good and precise but there would come a time when Mr Market hit you back with a short covering and take back what you owed him. So, be reasonable . Give and take.
Hope this is helpful.
Comment:
www.cnbc.com/2020/04...nd-analyst-says.html
