AUD/USD tests medium-term wedge
Even though the Australian Dollar had taken a direction towards the monthly and weekly S1s during the first half of Monday’s trading session, this bearish sentiment changed swiftly early in the morning when the rate surged up to the weekly PP at 0.7793. As a result, the rate was testing the upper wedge boundary for several hours, but nevertheless failed to surpass the strong resistance of the weekly PP and the 100-hour SMA.
There is still some upside potential that could push the rate towards the 200-hour SMA circa 0.7813. This mark, however, should work as an unbreakable resistance, thus guiding the pair back down to the 0.7770 area.
A possible trading range for the next session could be somewhere between the 200– and 55-hour SMAs.
There is still some upside potential that could push the rate towards the 200-hour SMA circa 0.7813. This mark, however, should work as an unbreakable resistance, thus guiding the pair back down to the 0.7770 area.
A possible trading range for the next session could be somewhere between the 200– and 55-hour SMAs.
Comment:
The AUD/USD exchange rate was moving sideways for two trading sessions, as it was unable to move past the weekly PP at 0.7794. This situation changed swiftly early on Thursday when the pair managed to surge up to the 0.7831 mark.
Meanwhile, the rate has formed a minor ascending channel that has been guiding the rate since October 6. The Aussie reached the upper channel boundary in this session and has since weakened against the Greenback. Thus, it is likely that this movement southwards continues to prevail for the following trading hours.
As a result, rate would test a combined support cluster formed by the 200-, 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP in the 0.7780/0.7800 area. It is expected that one of these barriers could work as a reversal point.
The AUD/USD exchange rate was moving sideways for two trading sessions, as it was unable to move past the weekly PP at 0.7794. This situation changed swiftly early on Thursday when the pair managed to surge up to the 0.7831 mark.
Meanwhile, the rate has formed a minor ascending channel that has been guiding the rate since October 6. The Aussie reached the upper channel boundary in this session and has since weakened against the Greenback. Thus, it is likely that this movement southwards continues to prevail for the following trading hours.
As a result, rate would test a combined support cluster formed by the 200-, 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP in the 0.7780/0.7800 area. It is expected that one of these barriers could work as a reversal point.
Comment:
The trading session on Friday started rather calmly, as the Australian Dollar remained near the upper boundary of a short-term ascending channel. Nevertheless, the rate skyrocketed in response to sluggish US fundamentals released mid-session.
As apparent on the chart, technical indicators made a massive leap southwards after this surge, compared to the Aussie which remained in a relatively narrow range until mid-Monday. Thus, it was pushed between the 0.79 mark, the weekly PP and the 55-hour SMA in the 0.7900/0.7844 area.
The base scenario favours the Aussie testing the nearest support and trading somewhere near this mark. As there are no fundamentals that could shake the market, the rate might fail to breach this level and thus continue trading slightly above it.
The trading session on Friday started rather calmly, as the Australian Dollar remained near the upper boundary of a short-term ascending channel. Nevertheless, the rate skyrocketed in response to sluggish US fundamentals released mid-session.
As apparent on the chart, technical indicators made a massive leap southwards after this surge, compared to the Aussie which remained in a relatively narrow range until mid-Monday. Thus, it was pushed between the 0.79 mark, the weekly PP and the 55-hour SMA in the 0.7900/0.7844 area.
The base scenario favours the Aussie testing the nearest support and trading somewhere near this mark. As there are no fundamentals that could shake the market, the rate might fail to breach this level and thus continue trading slightly above it.
Comment:
The Australian Dollar continues to depreciate against the Greenback for the third consecutive session. This movement down has been confined in a short-term descending channel.
During the past 24 hours, the rate has formed two waves in opposing directions and has therefore returned near its mid-Tuesday level.
As apparent on the chart, the Aussie remains stranded between the 55– and 200-hour SMAs that are providing very strong barriers for the pair. Given that the upside is likewise reinforced by the 100-hour SMA, the weekly PP and the upper channel line, the overall direction of the rate should be either sideways between the above moving averages or even lower, setting the weekly S1 at 0.7790 as the ultimate downside target.
The Australian Dollar continues to depreciate against the Greenback for the third consecutive session. This movement down has been confined in a short-term descending channel.
During the past 24 hours, the rate has formed two waves in opposing directions and has therefore returned near its mid-Tuesday level.
As apparent on the chart, the Aussie remains stranded between the 55– and 200-hour SMAs that are providing very strong barriers for the pair. Given that the upside is likewise reinforced by the 100-hour SMA, the weekly PP and the upper channel line, the overall direction of the rate should be either sideways between the above moving averages or even lower, setting the weekly S1 at 0.7790 as the ultimate downside target.
Comment:
Contrary to expectations, the Aussie managed to gather strength against the US Dollar and push through the 55– and 100-hour SMAs on Wednesday. As a result, the upper boundary of the short-term channel was breached.
The Aussie spiked on two occasions and even unsuccessfully tried to push below the 0.7848 mark in this session. Apart from the 38.2% Fibo, the next resistance is the distant monthly PP at 0.7940.
Taking into account signals flashed by technical indicators, downside risks are likely to drive the pair for most of the session, thus leading the pair towards the 200-hour SMA and the 23.8% Fibo at 0.7826.
Moreover, additional support along the way circa 0.7850 could hinder the pair from rapid depreciation.
Contrary to expectations, the Aussie managed to gather strength against the US Dollar and push through the 55– and 100-hour SMAs on Wednesday. As a result, the upper boundary of the short-term channel was breached.
The Aussie spiked on two occasions and even unsuccessfully tried to push below the 0.7848 mark in this session. Apart from the 38.2% Fibo, the next resistance is the distant monthly PP at 0.7940.
Taking into account signals flashed by technical indicators, downside risks are likely to drive the pair for most of the session, thus leading the pair towards the 200-hour SMA and the 23.8% Fibo at 0.7826.
Moreover, additional support along the way circa 0.7850 could hinder the pair from rapid depreciation.
AUD/USD showed no drastic changes to its overall price level on Tuesday, as the rate was confined in the 0.7779/0.7800 area. The Aussie did manage to breach the upper wedge boundary and move above the 100-hour SMA.
From theoretical point of view, the given currency should pick up speed and consequently dash trough the 200-hour SMA near 0.7806. However, the pair has been sticky to the weekly PP but has nevertheless failed to move above this mark (expect for a minor false breakout).
Thus, it is likely that the rate could test this moving average, but its subsequent movement should be guided by bears.
In general, the rate is stranded between two strong barriers that could result in a movement sideways. However, FOMC minutes released at 1800GMT could overturn this assumption.