RealMacro

NDX and the DXY

RealMacro Updated   
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
The chart is self-explanatory I would just like to add a couple of things here. There is never one reason why something moves.
For example

1. Dollar rises bc the economy is improving.
2. Bc of fear
3. Rates higher than other competitors
4. Monetary inflation or disinflation

In the chart, we see a number of these factors that take front and center stage.
Initially, the $ was strong bc the economy was improving. Then we saw fear,
followed by monetary inflation and low rates.

Now we are seeing the initial breakout of the dollar and a fall in stocks. Why? This is what patreaon.com/realmacro is all about. Understanding
the message of the markets and building a thesis around that. Adjusting that thesis, managing it, and assessing the risk-reward. In my view,
there are no models that work. Models is a fancy way of saying "I know the future" to create self-importance. The real world is too dynamic for
rigid models to work. At least I have never seen anyone's model work nor have I ever created one that works. It's not bc of a lack of trying either.
Several times I tried to write a book but kept running into the "MODEL" problem. The book kept leading me to "THIS IS HOW IT WORKS" and I know
enough to know NOT ALWAYS! So how can I write a book if whatever I put down on paper is NOT ALWAYS!? Right?

Anyway, the point I am trying to make is this. While this particular chart is bang on, it is only a small fraction of the analysis. Sometimes these
small fractions become a very big deal, so knowing how to read them and then weigh the importance of them becomes the art one should learn.
Not so much the data in of its self.

So to answer the question what is leading the dollar higher? Answer fear & higher rates. If the economy was growing stronger relative to current stock
bond valuation both stocks and $ would rise as rates rose. That is not the case here. Again just one chart one data point in a sea of others to consider.
Comment:
Again we see Dollar up markets down. The trend continues.

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