A lot of violence going on the past few hours, where the bears took over with a lot of volume. During the last few moves up, the volume dropped slightly, so now it has become clear that the bears were exhausting the bulls and attacked when the buying volume was decreasing since the past few candles on the left.
Glad i gave a small warning on the Alt's and Bitcoin just before the second bigger leg of the drop happened. Alt coins were just not moving along with each move up Bitcoin did.
Going to keep this story short, we had have this big sell candle now, suggesting another wave down is very likely to happen. Can't say yet if this is the start of another bear trend (on these time frames) or that this is just an correction from the 3700/4050 rally. A lot will depend on the next drop, the volume of it and the size of it. If the volume is less than the drop we just had, it could stop in that green zone and bounce up and down again. If it's the same or more, we could see a much bigger drop.
If the 4000 breaks, this bear flag scenario is probably of the table. So you can see this as and ABC, so making wave C down now, or we start a new impulse wave down.
Previous analysis:
Glad i gave a small warning on the Alt's and Bitcoin just before the second bigger leg of the drop happened. Alt coins were just not moving along with each move up Bitcoin did.
Going to keep this story short, we had have this big sell candle now, suggesting another wave down is very likely to happen. Can't say yet if this is the start of another bear trend (on these time frames) or that this is just an correction from the 3700/4050 rally. A lot will depend on the next drop, the volume of it and the size of it. If the volume is less than the drop we just had, it could stop in that green zone and bounce up and down again. If it's the same or more, we could see a much bigger drop.
If the 4000 breaks, this bear flag scenario is probably of the table. So you can see this as and ABC, so making wave C down now, or we start a new impulse wave down.
Previous analysis:
Comment:
I do have to say, OI on Bitmex only dropped a little bit actually, it's already at 565 mil again. So now i am not sure, if this move was just to stop the rally, dump it and being able to close longs in this area. So far still no bounce and as long as we stay below the 3980ish, bears are in full control
Comment:
OI is almost back to it's high from before the drop, i am a bit surprised to see that. Does not really confirm that bulls have given up, so i am less sure of another big drop. Also moving quite stable at the moment, i know it follows my blue line here to the point, but was expecting a bit more zig zag withing the flag.
This pattern on the left, is something i have shown 2 other moments the past months, i tried to find them, but i couldn't. I will try to look tomorrow. Anyway, those 2 other moments were also after a drop (quite sure those were bigger), but instead of making a normal flag, it was like moving from one stage up to the next. Think there was even a third stage, just before a squeeze up would happen.
Now when looking at the bounce, usually also a bit too strong after such a drop and in hindsight, the drop was less severe than i looked while it was happening. Now when having a second look, i am less sure about it and have to rethink this a bit.
This pattern on the left, is something i have shown 2 other moments the past months, i tried to find them, but i couldn't. I will try to look tomorrow. Anyway, those 2 other moments were also after a drop (quite sure those were bigger), but instead of making a normal flag, it was like moving from one stage up to the next. Think there was even a third stage, just before a squeeze up would happen.
Now when looking at the bounce, usually also a bit too strong after such a drop and in hindsight, the drop was less severe than i looked while it was happening. Now when having a second look, i am less sure about it and have to rethink this a bit.
Comment:
In this comment i made a small mistake. Closing longs had to be: closing shorts.
Comment: I do have to say, OI on Bitmex only dropped a little bit actually, it's already at 565 mil again. So now i am not sure, if this move was just to stop the rally, dump it and being able to close longs in this area. So far still no bounce and as long as we stay below the 3980ish, bears are in full control
Comment: I do have to say, OI on Bitmex only dropped a little bit actually, it's already at 565 mil again. So now i am not sure, if this move was just to stop the rally, dump it and being able to close longs in this area. So far still no bounce and as long as we stay below the 3980ish, bears are in full control
Comment:
New Bitcoin analysis:
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