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Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 04-08

Long
vanimator Updated   
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold suffered its worst weekly decline for the year erasing value over $34. The price took a nose dive on the last day of the trading week breaking the psychological $1300 with an ease and testing the support of the longterm trendline. This kind of movement can be taken as a pure price correction as the fundamentals still favor higher gold prices and even the dollar index didnt reflect such a lethal downmove. Gold though has fallen from highs but took support again at the longterm trendline keeping the bullish trend intact.

On the chart –

Gold had a big fall which erased gains worth of 4 weeks breaking the $1300 mark. The fall which can be simply called as a retracement from highs or overbought levels took support at the long term trendline which is the strongest support on offer in the chart. Technically gold remains bullish as the support was held and with a correction done newer highs is possible till the support holds. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold again took support at the long term trendline, till this is held it can go back above $1308. If this is crossed it can rally till $1318. And if this is taken out it can move towards $1327.

2. Short trades come live once the support gets broken for the targets of $1284 and $1273.

Bullish view – Bulls had a really tough week as the prices pierced through support levels briskly. The only factor that can console the bulls is the long term trendline support being respected yet again. For bulls, it is very important to defend this support to keep the trend intact as once it gets breached the bears come back into the mix. By the nature of the support and ongoing fundamentals its likely the support will be held and the price starts moving back up.

Bearish view – Bears finally made their presence felt as the price erosion was pretty big and it broke through support levels with an ease. Though bears may sense more downside but for the trend to turn in their favor they need to take out crucial supports.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1300 for the targets of $1308 and $1318 with a stop loss placed below $1290. Longer term target $1327.
Short trades come into the picture once the support gets broken for targets of $1284 and $1273.
Comment:
Trade Active
Comment:
First short target met at $1284

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