Gold is near to engaging the #1,678.80 Selling sequence

Gold's general outlook: Despite the fair Technical value of Gold (Spot prices) around #1,700.80 psychological barrier or less (near #1,678.80), Gold didn’t collapsed cause of the strong Volatility which once again distorted Technical trends and postponed my expectations. DX took a decent hammering last week as the Price-action strongly bounced back from Resistance levels and tested Higher Low zone, which added huge Buying pressure on Gold which was evident as Friday's E.U. session approached, along with the Bond notes. The Price-action has approached the same as February #14 Bottom on a typical intra-day Neutral fluctuation. The High Hourly 1 chart Volatility is an outcome of the Fundamental reports missing the Target and early interpretation that positive numbers will result into more aggressive hikes. I have to account the roll over effect for futures before considering a #1,678.80 test as the Price-action is closer to the Higher Low, than to Lower Low / indicating indecision throughout current session and this week’s first fractal. Expect the Volatility to increase as April is approaching and clear formation of already mentioned pattern with #1,678,80 as an Final downside extension. April, historically is most volatile month for Gold and I think the situation won’t change this Year. Once the Bond notes corrects the dip and start recovering, I can expect my Targets to be met, but monitoring correlations lately didn’t brought any results as Gold is not taking those into account (same as last March variance), but remember: the longer Gold ignores correlations and fair Technical trend, the steeper fall will be. This will be Bearish Yearly variance for Gold since #2021 is projected to be a Bullish Year for Bond notes, as an inflation rises, Investors will be willing to park their capital into Treasury Yields and make Gold lose.


Technical analysis: Allow me to share the Short and Medium-term for Gold along with it’s correlating instruments. Gold was close to the important #1,750.80 Hourly 1 Resistance test (Xau-Usd numbers on my focus), as Price-action was rejected on #1,745.80 - #1,750.80 configuration, which shows how slow to engage the decline Gold has become (not taking Fundamental Buying pressure into account) and didn’t even engaged full scale recovery / even though that Bond notes were Trading near the Resistance. If there wasn’t Bearish DX developments last week, Gold would be significantly lower. DX is reversing again despite Thursday’s late session dip, as mentioned Bond notes were Trading near their Weekly Resistance - reveals an Bearish sentiment Gold should be Trading on. Even though my Medium-term outlook remains Bearish based on fractal analysis of candles, Volume and RSI with the period May - September #2019 - I am expecting a Short-term pullback towards the Hourly 4 Support zone first (#1,722.80 - #1,727.80) as the Hourly setting was too Oversold approaching the levels of early December. I am looking closely at last week's U.S. data to monitor DX movements, and would instantly Sell the market on normal market conditions / but as trend has to continue Trading below #1,722.80 Support, my main point of interest / I won’t make any more moves, at least for few hours more after E.U. session until I have Selling confirmation (again, #1,722.80 or below). It is important to note that Powell's speech is expected within few hours, which can bring the Volatility on Short-term.


My position: I am still on sidelines, waiting for Short-term Support to break (#1,722.80) and engage #1,700.80 psychological barrier extension, which I won't hesitate to pursue with my Selling orders. I am not interested in Buying Gold on Short-term.