Rough map pf rate expectation without pretension of accuracy for dates nor timing...
What would cause rates to move higher? Inflation 2.0? According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates. If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future. This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a...
This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining...
Traders, In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions. However, I spotted something sus on the U.S....
Knock knock. Who's there? I. O. I. O. who? Me. When are you paying Treasury holders back? Never! Bullish Breakout ...to be continued... The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
The 10 year T is fighting the line. A bounce and break of current downtrend could mean more pain. But a break of the secondary support would demolish the bears as it would signal my long-expected blow-off top in the U.S. stock market. Stay tuned.
Let's see: This was the chart I posted this year: We reached the U-MLH. This is the stretch to the upside. How ever, it could go further towards the Moon. But usually, if price get rejected at the MLH's, we see the opposite move. In this case to the downside, to the Centerline. This is a great opportunity, the second time this year in the 10Y Bonds, which I...
The 10-Year Treasury yield has been consolidating since April as traders grappled with inflation and recession woes. Now, a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation is prevailing. At the time of publishing, prices finished forming the right shoulder and were trading at the neckline, which seems to be around 2.70. This is as the 100-day Simple Moving Average...
Lots of gloom and doom in the market these days because there is no vertical up and easy money is made. Use this opportunity to risk manage, buy quality on weakness as I did a month ago.
Sh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically crushed. It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4. One by one these are failing. Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound. _____________________________________________________________________________ Short term, we'll...
Ladies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation...
The 10-year Treasury yield soared to a new high over the past 24 hours, confirming the breakout above peaks from June - July 2019. Yields are now testing the former 2.34 - 2.43 support zone. Extending gains above the former exposes 2.61 before the 2019 high at 2.79 comes into play. These may offer the next critical levels of resistance as hawkish US monetary...
These 2 charts have been following eachother since Aug 2020 - this chart is the answer to the question: is bitcoin an inflation haven? Right now yes it is, and even at these price levels - obv too early too tell but this is encouraging sign
Following another strong US CPI report, the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 2%, further pushing above peaks from late 2019 (1.9073 - 1.9718). That has exposed peaks from summer 2019 as key resistance (2.1779 - 2.1431). A bullish Golden Cross remains in play between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages. Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence...
The attached chart shows 40 years of declining 10 year rates. As we all know, that rate is the basis for mortgage rates and just about everything else. During that half cycle the housing market boomed, the stock market boomed and generally speaking, corporations and individuals prospered. But that trend has ended. Thursday I would have said that rates would either...
Watching for a back-test of the neckline. NQ1! with support below at the 2 hour MBB.
After finding support and a fourth Lower Low under 1.35, bond yields have had a mini bounce to produce a Bear Flag. A lower interest rate environment persists, will the volatility in bonds become a staple of the new markets?
Sometimes it helps to invert the charts, particularly in bonds where price is inverse to yields, to see what the pattern looks like in the mirror. Bull plays in Big Tech would benefit from a bounce of this monthly neckline. As long as yields increase, and the Vix is elevated, the Santa rally is waiting for the sleigh to get out of the garage for repairs.