Technicals: The 10 year T Note is finding support along the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.38. This level also coincides with the 20 MA on the Monthly chart which is on an uptrend. The general uptrend movement from 2013 to now suggest that the recent selloff could be a consolidation ahead of a larger break to the upside. Macro: The Fed has been hinting towards...
$TLT has been rallying for a while but from the middle of May until now price has been going nowhere. Today price broke significant resistance and will go higher from here.
30 Years Treasury Bond weekly chart Broken Tentative Up Trendline. If the 30 Years Treasury Bond is closing the week below the support ( 3.27 ) level, it may trigger more bearish move.
Bonds appeared to break out of a flag consolidation pattern today in the TLT Bond ETF. If this fund can close over 115.50 there is upside range to 117.50 and then ~119 as next target. This seems to be coinciding with US Dollar chart firming up as well as the VIX index closing over the key 14 level. This is a key chart to watch over the coming days and weeks.
Based on this pattern triggering on a move over ~21.60 you could expect a measured move to ~22 before hitting resistance. The timing of this breakout seems to be coinciding with market topping action which further strengthens the likelihood of this chart having predictive utility. This chart taken together with today's breakout in Treasuries (TLT) and over 30%...
Ratio chart between the S&P 500 and US Treasury Bonds. The ratio is right now at the same height as before the crash in 2008 and it could eventually reach the levels of the pre-2000 crash if it continues. The only times the monthly RSI(14) of this chart went over 70, a crash eventually followed. However notice the period from 1994 to 2000 where RSI hovered around...
This ETF was in bear channle as we saw rotation out of Fixed Income into Equities. Yesterday it broke down trend line ahead of tomorrow ECB meeting. The longer it will stay above $62 the higher probability it will continue higher. Target at 50/100/200 EMA. Higher rates could make banks more attractive.
Chart speaks for it self Music at work: open.spotify.com www.youtube.com
There is no real reason to believe the bond rally is over. Bullish structure and bullish price action. Shorts will just fuel the gentle squeeze higher.
As we fast approach the typical seasonal top for the North American economy it shouldn't surprise us to see the anti-equity-market proxy (bonds) start to look more attractive. While I am not suggesting a trade (low reward to risk ratio on setup prevents me from considering the idea) , I do respect the fact that we may see a nice rally from current levels. Three...