Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...
For the few years there has been a close correlation between the US Dollar Index, US Treasury Yields, US Oil, and The Volatility Index, as of right now all are forming similar accumulation patterns, with the DXY, and Oil both sitting at the PCZ of a potential Bullish 5-0 at the 50% Retrace after breaking above its trend and the US10 Year yield sitting at the 61.8...
OANDA:XAGUSD has been sold heavily with yesterday's CPI numbers. Hotter CPI than expected numbers increased the probability of postponing the start of rate cuts to a later than March. With this expectation, OANDA:XAUUSD and OANDA:XAGUSD were sold with the initial reaction and then they saw some recovery. Silver might have bottomed out. Why? TVC:US10Y ...
QQQ / SPY New Closing Daily High Semiconductors Mixed * Transports weak DXY & Yields Continuing Lower
NASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest...
We have our first indication of a top in bond yields with price overlapping and losing it's impulsivity to the upside. However, a top is not confirmed until yields breach 3.40% which is our wave 4 of one lesser degree. To do so should confirm the beginning of our wave 2 decline into the target box, and over time.
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2%...
TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation...
Economic Policy needs to remain restrictive or should tighten further, until clear signs of easing inflationary conditions are available. Technicals Favor: Strong yearly candle Favor: Strong M BiMS Favor: M BiMS after ATL Favor: Multiple BSL Levels higher Currently at 10Y High Expectation Downside Retracement Targets (careful Short Term) 1 - 2.057% (Y SIBI...
Are we seeing a divergence in the market? Interest rates & yields have cooled off significantly in recent trading sessions thus providing the perfect tailwinds for tch to continue higher. Todays price action saw Tech make a new nominal high as yields were falling but ended up reversing lower. The fact that tech appears to be selling off under falling yields...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis for last week of November. TBC further details/write-up via ideas section, cheers.
- US 10 Years Government Bonds(Yield) TVC:US10Y experienced a pull back in the fourth week of August, after having rallied previously for five (5) consecutive Weeks, printing only green *W candlesticks. The Weekly pullback retraced to a Weekly price level of 4.09% for $U10Y (key level marked on dashed green line) We can clearly see TVC:DXY being dragged...
In 2022, the stock market took a hit and the US Dollar gained strength due to higher yields in the US. Toward the end of that year, as yields eased off, the US Dollar lost some of its power, and this coincided with a rebound in stock market performance. Now, as yields are climbing once again, the US Dollar is regaining strength, but it seems like stocks are...
There is a Bearish Bat with Bearish Divergence on the TLT, which could perhaps be signaling that the 20-year Bond Auction is going to demand higher yield than the current level.
Quick update on some calls that we made not long ago. Keep in mind that many were bullish on yields at the time. We stated that TVC:DXY was topping. We also believed that #yields topped, especially longer term. What has happened since then? US #dollar cratering. TVC:TNX , 10 Yr, 2YR & shorter frames are also rolling over. Last night we stated that #stocks...
Gold is once again in the spotlight, and here’s why! Economic Cycles, PMI & Gold The US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator often used to identify turns in the economic cycle. A below 50 PMI print indicates contraction in the US manufacturing cycle, while a print above 50 suggests expansion. Generally speaking, expanding manufacturing...
TVC:US10Y intraday mapping/analysis. US yields dip while bonds & stocks rip. US10Y in clear downtrend with potential bearish H&S pattern developing, TBC. H&S development would correlate with bonds/stocks pullback before further bullish momentum into EOY. Left shoulder, head & neckline outlined. Right shoulder parameters: Rally above ascending 1st...
Markets have had an extraordinary move to the upside with 8 days of consecutive gains and 9 days in the QQQ. Semiconductors often lead the market and have now hit major resistance. Microsoft has almost completed its bullish move.