US10Y rising wedge breakdownUS10Y broke out of the orange rising wedge downward. It bounced off of the teal upward trendline, retesting the rising wedge. Last week it also printed inverted hammer candle stick. Next support level would be 3.3%. Shortby HowardMarks46446
US 10Y TREASURY: rate cut on a long stick It seems that the market would have to wait longer than initially anticipated for the first rate cut. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed during the previous week showed that Fed officials are optimistic regarding the outcome of already taken monetary measures, however, they would like to be certain that the inflation is clearly on the road toward the targeted 2%, before they decide to make a move toward lower reference rates. The market reaction was further increase in Treasury yields, where the 10Y benchmark reached the highest weekly level at 4.34%. Yields are ending the week modestly lower, at the level of 4.25%. In the week ahead there is PCE data scheduled for a release. In case of any negative surprises in data, the Treasury yields might move to the higher grounds, at least till the level of 4.4%. Still, in case that there are no surprises, then there will be further relaxation in yields, at least till the 4.20% level. by XBTFX17
US10YUS10Y weekly parabolic trend crosses. As we know US10Y is one of the most important parameters for all investors. In this idea, - Shows parabolic trends in logaritmic scale. - Added date for parabolic trend crosses. This chart is published as an educational purpose and not a financial advice in any case. All responsibilty of useage this charts is yours. by SKYNETAITR2228
#SA10YGOVYIELDS looking to start a move back to top of range?The South African 10 year bond yield has found support off the intersection of the 200dma and the previous change of polarity point between 9.55%-9.65%. Momentum seems to be shifting up which could see us move back to the top of the range at around 11.16%. Longby MarcoOlevano2
SG10Y forewarns of a blowout top in the S&P500... The SG10Y had been previously established to be a reliable indicator of the US S&P500 index, and US markets in general. It has had a 100% read accuracy in forewarning of imminent volatility, particularly when the SG10Y breaks out of trendlines. So the end of the week saw Nvidia spark a rally in the S&P500, and closing at record highs for the week. Usually, I would be excited about this, but the SG10Y break out of the Finbonacci fan trendline, as well as the correlated bearish zone for S&P500 (red box) and MACD turning more bullish again... all these tells of a blow out top on the S&P500, which we must be wary about. Clear indicator that in the coming week or two, we should see a quick reversal on the S&P500. Check out the previous linked posts to see how reliable and accurate this has been since I started tracking and reporting. Stay safe!by Auguraltrader3
I am still waiting for a credit crunch event Note RSI level once have come to the 30 level while the fed hikes. I would not hold stocks positions right now. Shortby elalemiami3
US 2 year yield bonds vs copper and gold miners .... US 2 year yield bonds vs copper and gold miners .... strong correlation for finding bottoms and tops in bond yieldsby JoaoPauloPires3
US 20 Year Yield: Bearish Harami at Bearish Bat PCZThere is a Bearish Harami at the HOP level of a Bearish Bat with Impulsive RSI BAMM Confirmation. Alongside that, we also have 2 Major Squareups significantly below the current level and also an unfilled gap. If these Bearish Signals at the highs are to play along, this should be the start of an even greater retrace to fill the downside gap and to complete the square ups. This would likely come with some Bearishness in DXY and upside in the TLT which may also spillover into the IEF.Shortby RizeSenpai7
US 10Y TREASURY: to be or not to be a rate cut?During the previous period investors had been pretty confident that the Fed might cut interest rates in May, however, the latest published inflation data for January made them rethink expectations. Namely, as January inflation came higher than expected, the reaction of the Treasury yields was imminent one to the upside. This move was additionally supported by the released producers price index of 0.3% for January. The 10Y US benchmark made a move during the week from 4.15% up to 4.31%. In the week ahead there are FOMC Minutes scheduled for a release. In case that there is no news that the market did not priced in until now, then it might be expected some further volatility on the market. In the opposite case, some relaxation in Treasury yields should be expected, but not the significant ones. It could rather be a move toward the 4.2%. by XBTFX13
1yr vs 3 month yieldMarket priced in rate cuts for later this year based on the December Dot Plot, but you can see that the market has started to price that back out because of CPI and PPI numbers. PCE release on Feb 29th, and Fed meeting in March with a new Dot Plot. The Fed once again f'ed up by showing rate cuts in their Dot Plot, we'll see if they screw up again. Appears that Powell isn't the only village idiot, he's got company there at the Fed, lol. There gonna figure out that they can't SCHEDULE a rate cut, it should only happen when necessary. This is how rebound inflation happens, the Fed did it with their Dot Plot. Morons. The incompetence is staggering.by hungry_hippo9
DXY Bullish Trend At It's ENDI am really expecting the U.S. Bond Yields to reverse by March.Shortby JohnathanEsteban4
US Treasury Head and Shoulder Pattern visible May be potential drop will start soon. Head and Shoulder Pattern Visible in daily chart. Would like to know your opinionShortby rednivadUpdated 119
Dire warning by $JPM CEO - We've been saying this for some time.Good Morning Update!!!!!!! The real #economy is NOT represented by #equities or other public investments. NYSE:JPM CEO has been vocal on what has been happening but this is his most dire warning in some time. Personally, am shocked this gets air play. --- #yield pumping a bit after "hotter" #inflation than expected reported. 2 things we've been saying for some time!!!!!!! Be in #stocks but, Have Hard assets!!! #gold #BTC #silver Pls see our profile for more info!!!by ROYAL_OAK_INC4
New high in yields by November?I don't think anyone is expecting this, but I think we're setup for yields to hit new highs this year. The chart indicates yields are breaking out to the upside again, and this move could be a strong one. I think we're setting up to see a new high in yields by November topping somewhere between 5.35%-6.40%. Let's see if it plays out.Longby benjihyam335
The Yield Movement Since Peak in 4Q23I want to check which series give the highest Yield to Maturity among Indonesia Government BondsLongby mmdcharts2
SG10Y suggesting another round of volatility Track record of tracking the SG10Y yields in giving heads up to the S&P500 or US market direction has been quite uncanny... This time, the technical outlook for the SG10Y is suggesting a breakout, and in doing so, should see market volatility to the downside. MACD is suggesting a potential breakout, as is a recent close to the high and breaking the Fibonacci fan resistance. Any quick pop up would be confirmation of market volatility being imminent.by Auguraltrader3
The Bond Market this era Vs the Great Depression If this pattern continues to coincide, we should expect a massive downturn across all major indices over the next 5 - 10 yearsShortby trades72772
CRE & Small Banks coincide with each otherSmall banks account for about 70% of #commercialrealestate. Small #banks are considered those with assets less than $10B. We've been bearish CRE for a long time. We believe that this sector will likely not get better anytime soon. #interestrates are still holding fairly strong. They are at banking crisis levels or higher. TVC:TNXby ROYAL_OAK_INC3
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting January inflationDuring the previous week there has not been significant news published for the current state of the US economy, so the Treasury yields remained relatively stable, moving within a short range. The US Labor department revised its data for the inflation in December from 0.3% down to 0.2%, but the US Treasuries did not react much to this news. One of the reasons might be that the week ahead will bring a release of the inflation rate for January, in which sense, December`s data might be of less importance at this moment. At the same time several Fed officials publicly noted that the Fed is resilient to cut rates too soon, in which sense, the first rate cut might be postponed from the period currently expected by the market. The 10Y US Treasuries started the previous week around the 4.0% level, but moved to the higher grounds during the week. Highest weekly level reached was 4.19%. Yields are testing the highest level from the end of January, but without an indication that this level might be clearly breached. This increases probability for a short reversal to the down side, however, at this moment on charts there is indication for the level of 4.0%, with quite low probability that yields could go lower from this level in the coming week. by XBTFX18
Treasury Yields look ripe for further movesCurrent state of the short and long term #Yield. The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher. 10Yr vs 30Yr The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but....... The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still treasury selling pressure. by ROYAL_OAK_INC3
Downtrend has been broken, next wave incoming.Uptrend has commenced and we have barely begun. Generally inflation has 3 waves, and we have had our first. Rates are only up from here. Next stop is 10% ish and a 618 retrace. Wishing for 5% to be terminal rate was a joke.Longby MikeMM447
US10Y: Key Moment for Stock MarketHi Trader! U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against interest rate cut bets, pushed European bond yields higher. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, followed suit, with the uptick gaining momentum after Commerce Department data showing retail sales in December grew by 0.6% month on month, above the 0.4% economists had expected in a poll. Weak demand for a 20-year bond auction also helped lift yields later on Wednesday. 💡 "December retail sales reflect an economy that, although slowing, continues to be underpinned by consumer spending," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. "For the Federal Reserve, slower consumer demand would help propel inflation to decelerate at a faster pace; however, with consumer confidence gaining momentum, the economic landscape remains on solid ground," she said in a note. 🔴 The short-end of the yield curve, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, led the move higher. Two-year yields rose about 13 basis points to 4.354%, their biggest daily increase in over a month. Benchmark 10-year yields US10Y added about four basis points to 4.104%, their highest since Dec. 13. 🔴 From a technical perspective, chart shows a bearish impulse structure forming, and this technical bounce could form the second corrective leg (wave 4) before another bearish swing (wave 5). That said, the key resistance is around 4.23, and a rally above it could invalidate the technical structure. We correctly predicted the surge in inflation last year, but now the geopolitical context has become more complex: (Click on chart below) In conclusion, if this analysis is correct, Stock Markets (SP500, Russell, DJ,...) should see another rally with potential new High Top... Trade with care Like | Share | CommentShortby TheAnonymousBankerUpdated 4441
Looking at short & long term yieldsGood Morning Update Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields. Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels. The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels. The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels. Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels? CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV ------------------------------------ Digesting longer term data = 10 & 30Yr #yield. Higher lows Bullish moving average crossover > circles Moving avgs trending higher Forming small uptrend 2nd pic = WEEKLY Back above previous uptrend Trading under moving avgs TVC:TNX #Gold #silver #BTCby ROYAL_OAK_INC9