TLT is back on level which took the liquidity on left side and impulsed a massive bullish movement, there is and identified breaker block before the liquidity was taken and also a fair value gap in yellow.
Good R/R for a long down here, especially with a potential for a weekly hammer to set up a higher low from the 2023 bottom. Especially with a seeming "risk off" in the markets could be an attractive place to look for returns. Been bleeding for a long time... plus take a look at the volume since the bottom.. highest volume since inception at the bottom of the chart
We have a nice convergence on week chart. Normally, bonds start rise half year before recession, so I expect in next 2-4 weeks it will start rising. 1 target - 115$ 2 target - 121$ 3 target - 135$ But it`s long term investing - 180-360days, so better to wait when it will start rise.
This could be forming a H&S bottom. Zero talk about it. Could reflation move be peaking? Are we in a recession or soon to be?
Don't forget that another man's trash, is another man's treasure. Volume speaks volumes, pun intended. You know what to do...
Nassim Taleb's: “My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.” He also said: "The only economic research that seems to replicate out-of-sample is the work of Daniel Kahneman on behavioral...
... for a .28 credit. Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20. The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.
For TLT, I just wanted to share my own ideas, which are not investment advice, about the interaction of recent geopolitical events and expectations, as a note to history. In the pre-trading hours, I expect 88.3 with the opening and maybe 86.9 with reaction sales. Since I foresee a movement around 1.045 in terms of Euro / Dollar parity, I suspect that there will...
TLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023. Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time. Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20. Relative strength trending correlates with price . I...
Entry: Price broke through the 4H and 1D swing highs. Will be looking for longs/buys if the market taps the bullish zone. Stops: Close below the all time lows will invalidate the idea. Take Profit: Discretionary.
Bullish Falling Wedge continues on TLT. Inflation Data is screaming higher for longer, however the Bond Market continues to "prophesy" a Pivot from the Fed. Does the Bond Market see a massive Bank Failure Event in the near future?
... for a 1.55 credit. Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. ...
Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024
TLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern. Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value...
This is a possibility for TLT brought to you by Goodtexture who is hoping you can appreciate this artwork for its noble character and enthusiastic reprise
... for a 1.19 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals ... . Targeting the strike that would result in a break even around the 52-week low on weakness here. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point. I already have rungs on in July through Nov, so adding one here in Dec. This is complimentary to the covered calls I have on In January (See...
Can long NASDAQ:TLT here...with a 0.50 cents SL per share Hourly shows SMA support at 93.85 Daily shows SMA support at 94.25
Major buying under 92.66 . The day closed higher even after briefly touching a new low. Fed Chair Powell : Long-term goal is to move to a balance sheet that's mostly treasuries Source : www.youtube.com