Coinrule

Coinrule

In a world where the pulse of global finance never rests, a seismic shift ripples from the heart of the U.S. monetary system. 2022 witnessed the Federal Reserve's audacious move to slim its colossal $9 trillion balance sheet, heralding the dawn of Quantitative Tightening (QT). But contrary to expectations, the effects of QT on asset prices were subtler than...

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On Tuesday, in a dramatic and unexpected move, renowned rating entity Fitch made the decision to downgrade the U.S. government's supreme credit rating. The U.S. was demoted to an AA+ status from its previously pristine AAA rating. The downgrade was driven by the projected fiscal decline over the coming three years, and the now-recurring last-minute debt ceiling...

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As we step into the riveting theatre of this week's markets, we find ourselves in a world where contrasts paint the canvas. Equity markets have been on a downward slide since Friday, while in contrast, cryptocurrency markets have seized the spotlight and made a remarkable upward shift with Bitcoin at the forefront. The surge seems to be fueled by renewed hope...

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Last Wednesday, inflation prints (CPI) came in below expectations of a ‘hot’ print which would have likely indicated that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening rates. Cryptocurrency and equities markets reacted positively while bond yields dropped. These numbers are expected to persuade the Fed to lean more towards a "pause" stance for its next FOMC meeting...

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In recent days, a variety of technology stocks have surged as a result of robust earnings reports. Microsoft's impressive cloud and AI performance have been particularly noteworthy, leading to a ~8% increase in its stock value. The company was on the verge of breaking its single-day record for market capitalization growth. In contrast, cryptocurrency markets...

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Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) went ahead with the 25bps hike that many expected, causing a spike in the U.S. dollar and a temporary halt to the rally that equities and risk-on assets were experiencing. This rate hike has come under scrutiny from market analysts. In the past two weeks since Silicon Valley Bank ( SVB ) and Silvergate Capital collapsed, there...

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Two financial institutions, Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), collapsed early last week due to a series of ill-fated investment decisions which were exposed by global interest rate tightening. The collapses came after the institutions invested large amounts of capital in long-dated US government bonds, which were considered relatively low risk....

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Since the start of January, most leading macro markets have experienced a reversal around their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, BTC has shown resilience and fought the cross-asset sell-off. This divergence is likely driven by the fact that there has been over $1 trillion in net liquidity added to the market since the bottom in October, primarily...

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U.S. CPI inflation data was published on Tuesday. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation data came in hot at 0.21% above expectations. Despite inflation slowing YoY, expectations had been that current data would come out lower. Consequently, risk assets and equities have taken a short-term hit whilst the dollar gained some bullish momentum as this data...

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On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish...

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On February 1st, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released, and the Fed announced a 25bps rate hike. As such, markets started to rally. An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across...

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In the past two weeks, the market has seen a significant increase in bullish momentum leading many to believe that the proposed ‘echo bubble’ that many predicted for 2023 may indeed play out. It was initially unclear what was driving this momentum but the market gaining confidence that CPI will continue to decrease, as well as a temporary liquidity increase...

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The past two weeks have been largely uneventful as the market has seen a sustained period of low volatility and Bitcoin has been trading between the $16,250 support and the $17,000 resistance. From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator just crossed above its signal line. The last time this happened, the market saw a short-term increase in bullish momentum....

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On the 13th and 14th of December respectively, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve (FED) published their announcements on inflation figures and interest rates. U.S. CPI inflation came in soft at 7.1%, less than the 7.3% that was expected. As such, the FED stuck to the 50 bps hike that was hinted at previously. Although the market did see a small...

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The past two weeks have been relatively calm as Bitcoin traded in the $16,000 to $17,500 range. It appeared that the contagion effects from the FTX collapse were slowly starting to fade, however in the past few days more information has surfaced surrounding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and its potential insolvency. On Wednesday GBTC closed down -7.42%, giving...

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The past two weeks have been filled with more pain as the contagion effects from FTX have continued to spread and the market has started to get more information on the events that culminated in the FTX scandal. On November 11th, Sam Bankman Fried (SBF) stepped down as the CEO of FTX. Shortly after, John Ray III was appointed as the new CEO, a Chicago-based...

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The last 48 hours have been some of the craziest hours the cryptocurrency market has ever experienced. This comes after FTX, the 3rd largest cryptocurrency exchange behind Binance and Coinbase, paused user withdrawals and announced they were seeking to raise funds to avoid bankruptcy. What makes this more surprising is that in January 2022, FTX had raised funds at...

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The past two weeks have been another two weeks of low volatility, making October the month with the lowest volatility for some time. However, in the past few days, the upper and lower Bollinger Bands have begun to diverge, implying volatility is starting to pick up. Many active traders will be happy to see a change from the sideways market we have experienced in...