EdwinPus

EdwinPus

SPX has a bit of leeway, QQQ, not really, a possible scenario based on technical levels, could get rejected here, but on weekly still have some space, been waiting for 4250 for months now.

EdwinPus

It's currently still at resistance in my books, after convincingly beating the traditional bear market resistances (typically a very bullish indicator) but since this bear market has been prolonged we have to raise these resistance lines and the last white one is coinciding with the W pattern resistance upon which if completed should indicate a further break out,...

EdwinPus

In case we have a hard landing it should reset downwards. In case we don't it might proceed upwards, but that's not bullish by any means for equities.

EdwinPus

European stocks broke out of their channel months ago, but they are now facing an all-time resistance at the top, which positions them perfectly for a potential drop. If the SPX breaks out, it could mean that Europe will start retracing down while the SPX surges. However, it could also mean that both the SPX and EUR50 will begin their real bear market moves.

EdwinPus

Let's see if we manage to close the week above. Simple as that. Top of the range since the market is defined in channels.

EdwinPus

Possibly the last small push for NDQ and then all hell breaks lose. A personal take.

EdwinPus

At the current channel resistance. If it sustains, that's extremely bearish.

EdwinPus

Since 2000 we've lost this support 3 times, in all of these cases after closing below a spike up followed (on monthly). Let's see what happens this time, looking for a close above the red line in order to have confirmed signal.

EdwinPus

Watching a pullback take place in central bank liquidity usually correlates with retracements in SPX (albeit sometimes lagging). If it explodes higher, that could possibly mean two things, we're in the actual QE stage (we're not there yet despite what many others claim) and that would suppose the actual crisis has started. I would expect the move to be down first...

EdwinPus

Uncharted waters as the caption suggests since we've closed monthly above the long term channel. What does it mean? A shift in monetary policy, hence the attractiveness in bonds or a potential peak during uncertain times. No hard convictions, but the odds are not looking great for high risk plays.

EdwinPus

Usually VIX catches up to bonds volatility, hasn't happened yet.

EdwinPus

Most of the market is celebrating victory over the recession, let's zoom out.

EdwinPus

VIX might be signaling a bullish move for the index, however that is yet to be confirmed via 4 hourly close. SPX target I'm aiming for are around 3950

EdwinPus

In case we close above, these are the levels I'm looking at and will try to trade, but sell depending on the market positioning on any of the highlighted price levels. Good luck!

EdwinPus

An SPX level, which if lost would most likely initiate capitulation. Watch it closely. I know I am.

EdwinPus

Whenever in doubt I always zoom out, that's the most accurate approach to long term investing and macro cycle forecasting. This chart says us that dollar milkshake theory is at it's last stage, therefore a trade you don't want to overstay your stay. Should introduce a similar cycle behavior to 2000's