ScottMelker

ScottMelker

Broke and retested range lows as resistance. Nothing but air until around $52,000 on the chart. My biggest concern I have been discussing for months (in newsletter) is that RSI never made the trip to oversold. Almost there now, all lower time frames oversold. This is still ONLY A 23% correction, very shallow for a bull market and consistent with other...

ScottMelker

Out of sheer boredom, I clicked on my old favorite indicator, the Ichimoku Cloud. Without going into too much detail on how it works. I can say that those who use this strategy should be salivating at ETH at the moment. The flat cloud top (kumo) is considered strong support - this is the third test. The brown line, or Kijun, is also viewed as a support level for...

ScottMelker

ETH price action has been viewed as a signal for the rest of the altcoin market in past cycles. I just wanted to share the main weekly support levels, in case this correction continues. These black lines are the areas that we could likely see interest in Ethereum.

ScottMelker

RSI has once again given amazing signal. Clear bullish divergence for the entry. Confirmed hidden bearish divergence for the exit. Easy trade. Will we run it back with bullish divergence again here? We need to see a clear elbow up in RSI if we get the lower low on price. Regardless, this price action is disgusting and utterly avoidable.

ScottMelker

It appears we have some bullish divergence with RSI on the 4-hour chart (and 6-hour possibly). Not oversold this time, so not as strong of a signal - but RSI also never made it to overbought. Seems good to me for a trade, but likely just a bounce.

ScottMelker

The weekly candle failed to confirm the reversal from last week. Remember, we had a reversal candle 8 days ago, but for that to be relevant we wanted to see a green candle this week. Not a big deal, but not the clear sign we were looking for. On the weekly, we are clearly still ranging and Trading Alpha still has the bullish grey dots intact. More chop.

ScottMelker

If we take a look at the weekly Bitcoin chart and draw the same range that we have been looking at on the daily, the situation becomes more clear. Why? When you have a range, you add the EQ (equilibrium, center dashed line) and it tends to act as resistance and support. As you can see, the last two weekly candles all found strong resistance at the range EQ and...

ScottMelker

Bitcoin is “boring” and ranging sideways. This is a decent time to take a look at altcoins, if you are actively trading.

ScottMelker

This is an interesting chart, on one of the most hyped projects of the past few months. As you can see, this coin effectively pulled a 10X in 2024 before pulling back, which always happens after a massive run. It appears that CORE is forming an inverse head and shoulders of sorts (usually more clear at a bottom than in consolidation like this). More importantly,...

ScottMelker

The chop fest continues. As you can see, Trading Alpha is yet to turn back to grey dots on the daily, meaning that for now we have no clear signals from the indicator. As I have said many times, we are sideways, so the range EQ (the center dashed line) is an obvious place to find some resistance after the nice bounce off of the lows. Things look… fine. My thesis...

ScottMelker

Bitcoin printed a weekly hammer candle, a sign of a potential reversal. This is generally confirmed by the next candle being green. As you can see, the candle has a long wick down, with a small body at the top. We have had strong demand for the past two weeks, as shown by the long wicks to the bottom. This still look absolutely fine.

ScottMelker

Bitcoin continues to range sideways, basically from $60,000 to $74,000, give or take. As you can see, the sweep of the range lows was effective, with two wicks below and one perfectly touching the range lows as support. For now, this looks like a local bottom is once again in, which was a bit obvious (in hindsight) from the chart and from the sentiment. Remember...

ScottMelker

Bitcoin continues to build stronger bullish divergence with oversold RSI on multiple time frames. More often than not, this is the best bottoming (which is a process) signal there is.

ScottMelker

While the pricey action remains dicey, we have a number of signals forming (but NOT confirmed) that a bottom could be forming. On the daily, the range lows were pierced yesterday, but price bounced back above and closed with a wick through the low. This is a liquidity grab - called a bullish SFP (swing failure pattern). Generally this is a stop hunt, where...

ScottMelker

The bullish divergences that I was looking for are confirmed, which is usually an indication that we are bottoming, if not bottomed. Remember, these can build with more lower lows on price and higher lows on RSI, but this is my favorite signal.

ScottMelker

this is just sideways chop in a range, and the bottom of the range is always scary. I continue to believe that a lot of sideways is the most likely path as we approach the halving and see it pass like a nothing burger in the rearview mirror. I can always be wrong. It is very important to note - RSI still has not come CLOSE to oversold on the Bitcoin daily...

ScottMelker

Trading Alpha gave continual top signals (orange Ts) with orange squeeze shading, perfectly predicting that the local top for Bitcoin was in. As you know, I have been highly skeptical of price continuing up for a variety of reason - toppy charts, overbought RSI across the board on multiple coins with bearish divergences, memecoin madness, extreme greed etc. This...

ScottMelker

Trading Alpha is giving mixed signals on the daily chart at the moment, so I am watching and waiting. We have quite a few “Ts” which indicate potential tops, but the dots are still green and we do have squeeze shading - which indicates a bigger move is coming, but does not tell us the direction. The weekly chart still looks very bullish, but I am just sitting on...