ronfkingswanson

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Some folks think I don't make my charts and explanations simple enough to understand. So here's a plain one ;) Looking to top out 15-16K, probably about the same time the next round of futures contracts close... (check out my related charts below if you want to read more details, there really is more to the analysis than a wave count and falling wedge) If...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

We just dropped ~60% from the recent 19K peak down to just past the 0.705 retrace. We kissed the 200MA in the process, having fallen through the 100MA. Look familiar? News of government crackdowns and exchanges being hacked have turned the euphoric parabolic moon-bulls into panicked waterfall dumping bears. Yawn. For those of us who lived and traded through...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

We've been on this road since the ATH, but the exact route we would take on the way has been cause for much debate. We had one bull trap at 17.2K, but everything since has been heavy. Even my own forecasts for a momentary sunny trip to the topside of the pitchfork (before more winter) have fallen flat as we just keep slumping to the bottom with greater velocity....

ronfkingswanson Updated 

CME bitcoin futures termination of trading happens Friday (last of the month) at 4pm London time. We've got about 24 hours. The previous CBOE expiration was preceded by a massive selloff right up to the end (mid-january) -- and then a big rebound rally. So for those expecting another heavy dump, why are we consolidating on support? If there was going to be...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Selloff rebounded perfectly to the 0.705 OTE zone, and while ripple at first formed a nice bullish pennant, it fell out the bottom as bitcoin was more bearish and pulled everyone down again. So if we're still going up in the mid-term, I'm looking for the reversal to happen at the 0.705 retrace of the rebound itself . Then we can continue on to the $2.10 sell...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

(see related ideas below) Called the 17.2K bulltrap when folks were expecting to unload bags at 18-19K. Called the 9K low on the second selloff, when folks were clamoring for even more blood. Now we're repeating the same rebound, retrace, and collapse cycle on this pitchfork. This rally should get stuck under the old yellow triangle bottom, so no more than 14K....

ronfkingswanson Updated 

We've solidly settled the recent 10K bottom, and finally popped above the major 11,100 S/R line (from the big ATH selloff bottom). Next challenge is breaching the yellow downtrend shoulder line at 12K, which also happens to be where the pitchfork median is waiting. Note the red circle both here and back on Jan 2nd when we rallied from the same crossing point. **If...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

BTC is about to dump on its bearflag for the next day or so (down to 10,300) -- and that should coincide nicely with this Cup & Handle setup on EOS. Targeting the 1.618 extension on the cup bottom fibs. Should peak about 0.00165, then fall back to retest the previous high. After BTC hits its low target, should begin a rally to 13,600 -- so this is a great way to...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Everyone's been watching how this triangle resolved, and here we are. NOTE that oooold RSI purple trendline . We could have banged our heads against it but instead it's busted too. Still inside the 4H cloud, hugging the 200MA like a lifeline. Needs to solidly breach the cloud (could slide down the top a bit to 14,400 where the 0.382 fib is) before continuing to...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Textbook bear flag correction on the way down to 10,300 - after that expecting rally to wrestle with the old yellow bear trendline, then finally onwards to 13,600 high target Right now we're just bouncing around inside the white ranging box (between the 50% fibs of both moves). Note how the big selloff rebounded to the 0.705 OTE retrace, so I'm expecting the...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Thanks to some "Korea Bans Bitcoin" FUD news, we slammed into the existing triangle floor a little too hard and various exchanges busted the previously solid rising trendline (except Bitfinex). This sets up a possible lower triangle floor as we slowly, carefully rebound from this danger zone. Bulls are not climbing strong here, nerves have been rattled, so...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Setup for a 40% drop again, second leg of the measured move, with cheap coin buy zone at 9K. If this recent selloff to 11K was really the "bottom", we should have sprung back up forcefully to retrace -- but we never got above the 50% level, which is rather bearish given all the recent enthusiasm. Also failed to break above the orange ceiling trendline at a crucial...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

Time for some wild speculation, looking at where we might be in a year, if the bulls have their way. The next "reward halving" coming in July 2016 could easily fuel another bubbly rally (whether you think that's a valid reason or not :P) I've been using this dusty old fork for a really long time now, and at this weekly scale, there's a lot of wiggle room. So...

ronfkingswanson Updated 

This is that chart -- the one that I never published, but should have long ago, because for once I stopped trying to make a technical analysis, grabbed the marker and just scribbled a potential path based on the price action in this two-year long bull channel. Back on June 16th, as the rally was peaking in the blue zone, I freehanded a sloppy pink scribble which...

ronfkingswanson

Yeah, yeah, I know all the reasons why things are different now, and we did actually bust this fork already, but you'll have to forgive me for not reading the exact same signs that have proceeded the bear market waterfalls for almost 2 years now. I've been using this same damn chart for too long. I'm sure it's invalidated by a bunch of stuff, but that stubborn...

ronfkingswanson

Plenty of doomsayers around here, and I'm fully aware we're still in bear market territory – but we have been ranging pretty much flat sideways for months now, and there's still room for a minor bull push without robbing the bears of their eventual collapse into $120 territory. The local bull channel I'm watching above might easily break down, but really until we...

ronfkingswanson

We've been crawling carefully up this local bull channel, and could still drop a leg to the bottom of it before bouncing, but if you notice the yellow circles, we might actually be about to repeat the move of Feb 26th, where we formed a small arch before exploding into a strong 5-wave bull push. The fibs I've placed are clearly projections, as we haven't finished...

ronfkingswanson

EDIT 4/27 – $269 TARGET HIT seems like BTCE went a bit overboard (as usual) compared to the others, but coins were traded, orders went thru just fine, so target counts ;-) EDIT 4/22 – see first comment chart below with revised descent channel and alternate 5-wave path to $288 max high target We find ourselves on 4H RSI and MACD right back in the same position as...