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Launch Chart
15 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
15 2295
Not a lot on my radar this morning which is perfect seeing how Monday’s are typically days where I let the markets wake up after the weekend. One pair that I’ve been continuing to watch closely has been the EURUSD which has provided a lot of opportunity over the past month or so.

The chart before you shows a potential bullish Gartley pattern completing extremely close to the “X” leg. As I shared with my Syndicate members in this morning’s trading video, this is a really good thing, because it puts us in a situation where we don’t have to risk as much and can potentially receive a greater reward if the trade goes in our direction.

I usually don’t take patterns too seriously until the “B” leg is broken so there may be a few bullish opportunities beforehand, but that’s something I won’t be interested in until tomorrow.
Good luck in the markets this week traders and as always, if you like this post PLEASE HIT the THUMBS UP button, and if you have any question, comments or would like to share your views on this pair don’t hesitate to type in below.

Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered

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1 day ago
GBPUSD, 240 Short
36 1580
Last week the dollar weakened prior to FOMC, helping the Cable rise during the first three days of the week. The UK GDP coming out as expected also supported the rise; illustrating the economy is doing well. In the FOMC statement on Wednesday the FED referred to solid job creation and said there will be an increase in interest rates following 'some further' improvement in the labor market. There were however no clues as to the timing of the rate hike. Cable rose again on Friday, after a far below expectations US employment cost index, leading to a dollar sell off. With all the fundamentally bullish impulses of last week, price failed to break above and close above the key resistance at 1.567

On the technical side, the Cable is trading inside an ascending triangle for about three weeks, printing a quintuple top along the way. It dropped 65 pips after the last failed attempt to break this resistance. There is a confluence with this resistance level and the 618 retracement of the swing low that preceded the triangle. We also have clear regular bearish RSI divergence; indicating underlying weakness and possible trend direction change from uptrend to downtrend. If the pair would break below and close below the lower trend line of the triangle, I would go short. More conservative traders could wait for a successful retest of the broken trend line before entering the trade. Monday we have the UK manufacturing pmi coming out, which will no doubt give an impulse to this pair.

The stop would go 30 pips above the flat top. TP1 lies just above the low of the swing low that precedes the triangle. TP2 lies just above the next key support level. See the chart for details. In terms of trade management, when TP1 is hit I would take profit on half of my position and roll my stop loss to breakeven, enjoying a risk free trade towards TP2.

There are +/- 400 pips to be made (depending on where it breaks to the downside) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of +/-3.0!
20 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
9 959
Did that headline get you excited? Who doesn't want to catch a wave 3, right? So my thorough analysis says a wave 3 is the next move. But when and where will it start? Or has it already started? Can you still catch it if it has? If so, where would it be best to catch it? All these questions will be answered....in due time! So let's get started with why I'm thinking wave 3.

I did post about his possibility last week (see Related Ideas: "EURUSD: Did Wave C Just Start? Bull Bat TP1+TP2 Hit (+222 pips)". But in doing my weekend re-analysis, I throw everything from last week away and start from scratch and see if I come to the same conclusions. Here's what I got.....

SUMMARY OF MAIN CHART ABOVE
The chart I posted above is the 4Hr TF chart. The chart is simple. Two patterns. One is a bullish Gartley and the other a bearish butterfly. Both end at/near the lower and upper trend lines respectively. By my wave count, it's possible that we are already in a wave 3 moving up towards filling the bearish butterfly at the top trend line. But it is also possible that the wave 2 has not yet finished and prices will move towards the lower trend line more and fill the bullish Gartley before starting on the wave 3 up after testing the lower trend line. Prices are at a decision point (as of the time of this posting) as to which way to go. It's simple. If it goes down and breaks the B point of the Gartley, then wave 2 is not finished and the Gartley will get filled. Prices then will start on wave 3. If prices either move down and DOES NOT break the B point of the Gartley and then start moving up again OR prices just move up from where it is now, then wave 3 has already started and now is a good time to look for opportunities on small retracements to get in on it. Why the B point is so important? Because if wave 3 has already started, then point B is the end of the wave 2. If prices go lower than that, then wave 2 is not done. OK, so how did I come to the conclusion that there is a wave 3 coming here and that prices are not just poised to shoot down in starting another impulse wave down?

OVERVIEW - MONTHLY CHART
There is A LOT going on here! Mostly self-explanatory but overall...BEARISH! So if I am overall bearish on this pair, why am I saying there is a wave 3 UP coming? Well, remember this is a MONTHLY chart and everything that is happening now is all within the context of the MONTHLY moves.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VuR6izeU/

WEEKLY CHART - ZOOMING IN ON THE CURRENT PRICE ACTION
https://www.tradingview.com/x/740kUuVy/

DAILY CHARTS - HERE'S WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING: 3 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
So below are 3 charts on the DAILY TF that show 3 possible scenarios that I think have the most likelihood of happening. Of course I am not saying any of these WILL happen and that there are many other ways that this correction could still unfold and also that there is a possibility that the correction is over and prices are poised to move lower from here as well. But these are just MY thoughts are the most likely scenarios. Choose whichever you think. But in ALL 3 scenarios, the next move is UP in a wave 3. And that is why I am so confident that this is a very good opportunity to catch a wave 3 movement!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/baZjsOJ2/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tDFKIlgZ/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/AAp2ogAZ/

CONITNUED BELOW IN COMMENTS SECTION DUE TO POSTING LIMITS
1 day ago
EURJPY, D Neutral
3 1122
The Bearish Scenario
The cluster of moving averages holds well, and price heads lower breaking the minor rising trend line for the recent consolidation. That would create the right shoulder for this POTENTIAL head and shoulders, and retest the neckline for the pattern. Its too early for further forecast.

The Bullish Scenario
A breakout above the main resistance cluster. That would be strongly bullish. and the right shoulder completion scenario will no longer be valid. That would suggest a minimum move towards the latest major swing high at 141.00

My way to trade this could be shorting just below 137.00 targeting 135.50 then the neckline. With a stop above 138.00. Alternatively, on a break above 138.00 to reverse position and go on the long side targeting 140.50-141.00.

My best regards
Technician
Subscribe to my trading portal http://thefxchannel.com
12 hours ago
USDJPY, 60 Short
10 307
At the risk of sounding like the boy who cried "WOLF!" too many times, I have re-adjusted my current wave count and now it seems a "wave 3" has just started. It is the nature of the market that it is unpredictable and we can only take our best guess at what is actually happening. This is why counting waves is an art. Not a science. Wave counting is dependent upon the eye of the beholder. And must always be re-assessed over and over with every new significant price action. Otherwise, you risk missing out on great trade opportunities or worse yet...getting in on bad ones.

So what I'm doing here is alerting to the POSSIBILITY that a "wave 3" has started....just not the "BIG ONE" that I have been waiting for. This is a "small one" relatively speaking but with a chance to yield 180+ pips if taken now. The risk:reward is good as the S/L is pretty close. That would be the point to which my wave count would again be rendered incorrect.

Take my recommendation as you see fit. Again, it's just what I'm seeing and what I'm doing.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all comments are welcome.
19 hours ago
EURUSD, 60 Long
2 744
EUR/USD has made a high of 1.1113 and declined from that level. It is currently trading well below 100 and 200 day HMA.

Any break above that level 1.100 will confirm short term bullishness , a jump till 1.1035/1.1085/1.1100 cannot be ruled out.

On the downside minor support is around 1.09425 (76.4% retracement of 1.0920 to 1.1113) and nay break below will drag the pair further down till 1.0920/1.08865/1.0850.

Intraday trend reversal only above 1.1000.

It is good to buy only above 1.1000 with SL around 1.0945 for the TP of 1.10858/1.1100/1.1130.
8 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Short
6 400
I will be shorting this based on Clones and to catch the remaining CD leg of potential bullish gartley. The solid black dashed lines and light dashed lines are the decision points which i will be using it as support resistance while in trade.

Decision Points for Down Move:
1.0960 - 1.0924 - 1.0892 - 1.0858

Entry : Market
SL : 1.1
TP : 1.085x

Disclaimer: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/HR0NplaT-Trading-View-Ideas/
1 day ago
USDCAD, D Neutral
6 589
Hello friends, this is not a setup, just doing this for research and fun.
Thanks to GcNaif and Nmike for bringing my attention to this cloning technique.
Actually its not new for me, i have used it before succesfully but only by "instinct"
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPCAD/43O9tAQ4-GBPCAD-moving-within-a-channel-again/

We know price action often likes cloning (wave cloning, AB=CD patterns, bollinger band duplication i often use, etc)

This techique is similar but very simple and useful.
Looking at chart on USDCAD price history we see the channel duplication worked perfectly before (sky-blue channel).
It still hurts me when i remember i was stopped out by a few pips before price going in my favor 800 pips (ARRGGGGHH!!!!!.....)
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCAD/8QtSUfbn-USDCAD-a-good-area-to-enter-long-1-20000/

I remember very clear how difficult was to find an entry point then using another trading systems. This cloning technique would have been more useful and easy.

Im trying to use and test this technique now, we see the price is on clear bullish trend but respecting the base channel, specially the middle points.

Very important: this technique must be used not alone but in confluence with another reasons/trading systems.

I expect some reaction near the levels shown on the chart. My prefered scenario is bearish because i think the price needs a correction.


Lets see what happens.

Best regards.


19 hours ago
GBPUSD, D Long
12 249
GBPUSD is showing some weakness to move further up. But I still see a possible retest to the trendline support possibly completing a Gartley pattern. For me the price to watch is 1.57000 which has been tested several times and rejected in the recent past.
So short term, I believe there is yet another upward move left. What do you guys think?
14 hours ago
USDJPY, 240 Short
6 259
Last week, I presented 2 Scenarios for the next move in this pair. In the first scenario, I suggested that there was a strong possibility that a wave 3 could be starting or started. At the time of the posting, I gave a "make or break" point for the wave 3 scenario (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: USDJPY - Let's Go Surfing! Wanna Catch A Wave 3?"). Well, as the saying goes, "The best laid plans of mice and men...."! That scenario was invalidated soon after I published it as prices did indeed break below that "make-or-break" point that invalidated my wave count. So back to the drawing board!

Here I've updated the wave count possibility and now see that the wave 2 correction is not yet over so wave 3 will have to wait. And there will be a wave 3. Just not right now. What I see now is the probability that this wave 2 is now unfolding in an possible expanded flat. A rather common pattern for wave 2's. We could be at the tail end of the expanded flat and I've also drawn in a EARLY POTENTIAL Bullish Crab that would be filled at the extreme of the expanded flat at 1.618 extension.

HOW TO PLAY THIS SCENARIO
Right now, I am waiting to see if prices stop before the most recent high point (which I've labeled the end of wave (b) and the end of the previous abc wave. If prices DO NOT EXCEED that point but can come close and then start retreating possibly leaving a double top, then I will expect prices to decline as per my scenario. A relatively low-risk trade is that when prices reach near the previous high point, take a SHORT position there to ride the next leg down to the completion of the bearish crab. That's a POTENTIAL 240+ pips to be had.
20 hours ago
USDCAD, 240 Short
1 329
THIS MIGHT BE A TRICKY BREAK
REASON:
1:THE BREAK OUT OCCURED IN ASIAN TIME
2: TOUCHED THE TREND LINE
3: TOUCHED 1.13 EXT OF PREV LEG
I WILL ENTERE A SHORT POSITION AND SL
ABOVE 1.3170
14 hours ago
EURUSD, 240 Long
0 481
The major support is around 1.0900 (trend line joining 1.0807 and 1.08922) and any break below targets 1.0850/1.10800.

Intraday minor resistance is around 1.0978 (20 day 4 HMA) and any break above will extend gains till 1.100/1.1085 in short term.

It is good to buy at dips around 1.09525-550 with SL around 1.0890 for the TP of 1.100/1.1085
9 hours ago
GBPCAD, D Neutral
1 191
Hello, it seems this pair is going to the stars. Right now many traders want to short them but better to wait a little more because the final rally and decline is near.

According to W1 chart analysis this pair is forming a big ABC zigzag. Usually we expect the AB=CD harmonic pattern. We can see also a corrective channel that can contain the price.
RSI is extremely and HISTORICALLY overbought repeating similar setup that ocurred the beginning of 2014.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3q1foE51/

Here on D1 chart MY wave counting suggest we are still on Wave 3 blue just finishing. It could be nice opportunity to look for shorts to catch some pips.

Then i expect a final rally and dramatic decline near 2.1000

Best regards.
1 day ago
NZDCAD, 240 Short
5 221
UPDATE #1: Trade is ACTIVE now. Good Luck EVERYONE !!

Hello Traders,

Here we have a BEARISH 2618 TRADE SETUP on FX:NZDCAD. Market was able to break previous structure (HL) and made a new lower low (LL). Now it has retraced back to 61.8%Fib retracement level for nice shorting opportunity. I havemarked my entry price on the chart above and market is close to the entry point for this setup. Risk to reward for this setup is also quite favorable. See the chart above for more details.

NOTE #1: See the idea under the "RELATED IDEAS" section below, for detailed description on 2618 trading strategy.

NOTE #2: We could also have a POTENTIAL AB=CD Harmonic Move completing at the 2nd target of 2618 trade setup. We also have some well respected 4 HOUR and DAILY trend lines at the 127.2% Fib extension level. This level can be a good place to close all SHORT positions and opening LONG positions from the same level. See the chart below this description for further clarification.

Please feel free to AGREE or DISAGREE with this idea by leaving a comment below. Hit that thumbs up button (top left corner of this chart) if you like the idea. Good Luck :)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tGRHvYir/
6 hours ago
GBPJPY, D Short
6 120
Friends

Trend looks weak, showing obvious resistance levels off, Ma's are struggling to stay apart, suggesting weakness.
Rest of the notes on the chart ;-)

Best of luck
Tom
7 hours ago
GBPUSD, 60 Long
1 187
Did that grab your attention? I'll bet it did! After all, everyone wants to hop on a wave 3 gravy train, right? Well, is this the time to do that in this pair? The answer is....(drum roll, please!) YES! Ok, I might get hammered for saying that so boldly but I'll post my DISCLAIMER at the end of this post so you people who want to bash me if I'm wrong can go read that!

In my previous analysis on this pair, I mentioned that there were 4 patterns that were pointing at PA moving up. Well. recent PA wiped out a couple of those patterns and left the other ones wondering what did they ever do wrong to get so abused! So like any good trader, I went and drank a couple of beers to get buzzed so I could see the squiggly lines in a different way. If I lived in Colorado, I might've smoked up a little, too!

Anyway, enough of the bad jokes and let me not waste the LIMITED space they give me to actually write something constructive you'd want to read. The chart. Yep, it certainly look like I did this chart while drunk, doesn't it? Crazy lines going every which way. But when you see such crazy lines, then you know it MUST be a consolidation! If you are confused as to what is happening, first thing you should think is CONSOLIDATION! After all, no one is confused when prices are moving in a straight line. Which they will be very soon I think....or maybe not.

In the chart above, what you are seeing is MY wave count as to what COULD be happening. This consolidation is unfolding in a "double 3" corrective combo wave. Keep in mind that this particular consolidation wave, as per my BAT PATTERN WAVE COUNT (yes, all harmonic patterns have their own INTERNAL wave counts!) is part of a larger wave 3 that is already under way! Yes, that's right. By my wave count, we are ALREADY IN A WAVE 3. And this is could be the ending of the wave 2 of the larger wave (3). So that means that where prices are RIGHT NOW (as of the time of this posting) is probably the best place to get in with minimal risk and draw down! If my count is correct.

If it's NOT correct and the consolidation is still on, then there will be a triangle coming up and prices should still NOT go lower than they are now. On the chart, I have labeled a "make--or-break" point for what I think is happening which serves as a good S/L for a entry right now. If this S/L is broken, then I will re-assess again what might be happening and what is the next move. Anyway, the risk;reward for this trade is phenomenal if it works out.

OVERVIEW - DAILY CHART
https://www.tradingview.com/x/llAEWcDn/

4Hr CHART
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v8m1EQs3/

CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
Simple. I've already added another full LONG position as I think this is a great spot to take a risk on. Even if wrong, the loss is minimal. It's rare to be able to get in on the very beginning of a wave 3. I plan to take full advantage but of course as always, well within my overall MM and trading plan. I would never "bet the house" on any trade! I can ALWAYS be wrong!

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all comments are welcome.
7 hours ago
INDU, D Neutral
4 137
The sum of all of the KEY LEVELS of the DJIA stocks that have reported as of August 2, 2015 represents a resistance level if the market is below it or a support level if the market is above it.

The latest batch of earnings from the oil sector have weighed down the number (CVX, DD, XOM, in particular) from 18,150 down nearly 400 points to 17,769.

The interesting part is how the market peaked right at the KEY LEVEL in the recent run-up after it had violated the widely followed 200 day moving average. I graph the 1-year moving average or 253 days because I believe that is even more useful than an arbitrary 200 days.

Use this information however you wish and feel free to comment and review the past charts of this time-consuming calculation.

Cheers,

Tim 3:41PM EST August 3, 2015

I can post an additional chart that has each symbol with a box on the date that it reported, but I want to get this chart out to you all right now. Thanks.
8 hours ago
GER30, D Long
5 168
If we don't reach this price level during this week, cancel the pending buy stop.
I think it's possible to see the Dax start an uptrend in the weekly, but first I'd need to see price accelerate away from the mode in this timeframe.

I had entered already using the 4h chart, but my target in that timeframe is lower (11550). Entry was 11421, SL 11244.
The entry suggested here is a bit safer, since it would trigger the weekly signal on chart.
Entry: 11616, SL 11314, TP #1 13256, TP #2 14723. ETA: 13256 reached before November 20 while price doesn't move below 11383.
Potential targets are 13256, and up to 14723, while the stop loss would have to be below the mode.
Risking 0.5-1% in this trade is ok, but it's ultimately up to you.

Good luck,

Ivan.
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