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Editors' picks

5 Things To Remember About Bull MarketsHey everyone! 👋 Bull markets are a time of optimism and growth, and they can be a great opportunity for making substantial gains. However, it's important to remember that bull markets don't last forever, and it's crucial to approach them with a healthy dose of caution while keeping your eye on your long-term goals. 🙂 Here are a few things to keep in mind when trading and investing in bull markets: 🚨 Don't get caught up in the speculative frenzy It's important to remain level-headed and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term gains. Take time to thoroughly research any trades you're considering. It’s always good to focus on ideas with strong fundamentals as well as technicals. 📚 Keep an eye on valuations In a bull market, it's common for prices to rise, sometimes to levels that may not be justified by a the underlying fundamentals. For investors, it can be important to keep an eye on supply and demand, valuation, and more to make sure the assets you're positioned in are reasonably priced. 🔔 Be prepared for reversals Like all good things, the Bull markets too eventually come to an end. Hence, it's essential to be prepared for a downturn. It’s always good to manage risk exposure by employing techniques such as diversification, hedging and more. 💸 Control your risk It's natural to want to hold on to the positions that are performing well, but it's important to remember that bull markets eventually come to an end. If you've made substantial gains, trailing may be a good option to lock in profits should things change quickly. Letting the winners ride by continually trailing your positions is a particularly good strategy for improving a trade’s Risk-Reward ratio. 📈 Keep a long-term perspective Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Bull markets can be a great opportunity for gains, but it's important to keep a long-term perspective about your goals. Did you miss the big moves? Don’t get angry and make bad decisions. There will be more opportunities down the road to apply what you’ve learned. Bull markets can provide excellent opportunities, however, they must be approached with caution and with defined personal goals. Consider the risks and rewards of each investment, keep an eye on valuations, and always be prepared for a downturn. We hope you enjoyed this post! Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below. – Team TradingView ❤️
Editors' picks
12
S&P500 Has it bottomed beyond any doubt?Two weeks ago the S&P500 index (SPX) closed above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of April 04 2022. Last week it tested the 1W MA50 as a Support, successfully held it and rebounded. If it wasn't for the rejection just below the 1W MA100, we would talk about the perfect break-out. Still however this is a nearly perfect recovery: a) The dominant pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which practically formed the bottom of the Bear Cycle, rebounding on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). b) The 1W RSI started rising on Higher Lows, while the price was on Lower Lows, waving a huge bullish divergence. Interestingly, we've seen the very same IH&S pattern and RSI Bullish Divergence during both of the last major Bear Cycles, the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and 2001/02 Dotcom crash. Common feature of those two is that after the index closed above the 1W MA50, it formed a Channel Up (green pattern) that led it straight to the 1W MA200. This time the 1W MA200 is a Support, but there is the Resistance of previous Lower High to consider. And that is at 4640. Valid target in our opinion by the end of Q3 if this Channel Up is materialized. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Editors' picks
Long
28
Ordinals on Bitcoin - A Cybersecurity Necessity or Just Hype?With the Launch of NFTs on the Bitcoin chain by Ordinals last month, the community is divided on what this means for Bitcoin as a chain and its future. NFT's have been a mainstay on several blockchains for years now, but until now their prevalence on the Bitcoin chain was understated. With the launch of the project Ordinal Protocol, that's changing. What is Ordinal Protocol Ordinal Protocol, created by Bitcoin Core contributor Casey Rodarmor, enables users to explore, transfer, and receive individual satoshis (1 millionth of a BTC), which can include unique inscribed data such as videos and images. Inscriptions make it possible to put content in a Bitcoin transaction and assign it to a satoshi. Once mined, the inscription is made on the first satoshi of the first output of the transactions, marking that satoshi permanently with the inscribed data. This process stays entirely on the main Bitcoin blockchain and does not require a sidechain or additional tokens. The protocol is enabled by Taproot - a BTC soft-fork upgrade that was activated in 2021 and brought enhanced security and smart contracts to the network. In addition to inscribing data into a single satoshi transaction, Ordinal also allows people to assign a unique serial number to each satoshi. This means that the first satoshi's in the output of notable transactions can have value for collectors even without an inscription within them. For instance, the first satoshi of the genesis block, or the first satoshi after each halving could become collectible due to their historical significance. In a way, this compromises the fungibility of Bitcoin but in reality a parallel could be drawn between these non-fungible Bitcoin's and bank notes or coins that people collect. They do not affect the fungibility of all Bitcoin, and regular users can continue to use them normally as well. Ordinal Inscriptions are, in many ways, superior to the NFTs that most people are familiar with. Ordinals are digital artifacts which means they are decentralized, on-chain, immutable, and unrestricted. Many popular NFT projects don't actually meet these requirements as they are often stored off-chain, controlled by centralized minters, and often on very centralized blockchains. Even with its novel and Bitcoin native approach, the project remains controversial among the community. Detractors Many prominent Bitcoin developers, including Adam Back, were quite opposed to the idea of Ordinals on Bitcoin, claiming that it was a waste of block space. This also led to a discussion over whether miners should censor these resource intensive and "useless" transactions. NFTs take up valuable block space on the network that will raise the cost per transaction for all users. Full nodes need to download the inscribed data when they receive confirmed blocks. With JPEGs and Videos, these blocks can be far larger than conventional transaction blocks requiring node operators to dedicate more resources. Proponents Blockspace in Bitcoin is assigned using a free-market auction. This allows Bitcoin to be fair, open, and accessible to everyone. As such, the free-market should be left to dictate how blockspace is assigned instead of a perceived "utility". With Bitcoin's tokenomics, most miner revenue currently comes from block rewards instead of fees. Although this is not currently a concern, as the block reward continues to become smaller, the security model of Bitcoin comes under threat. A Bitcoin native application like Ordinal provides an additional use-case for Bitcoin, which is mainly used as a transaction protocol for exchanging value right now. By filling up unused block space, Ordinal transactions incentivize users to pay higher-than-minimum fees to make sure their transaction is included faster which will drive organic revenue towards miners. Although, Ordinal protocol transactions provide a potential path to addressing a long-term security concern for the Bitcoin network, it also disincentives normal users of the network in the short-term. Overall, Ordinal transactions have led to a spike in BTC network activity as well as fees. Still, as with most NFT projects, there is a high chance that the hype surrounding the project ends up fading away and Ordinal related transactions drop off again. However, the project has prompted an interesting discussion about the long term security and utility of the Bitcoin Blockchain. Regardless of whether Ordinals end up being a fad or a mainstay on the network, they've illustrated that blockspace and fees will be dictated by the free-market. We could soon see more similar projects now that Taproot allows smart contracts to be executed on Bitcoin. What are your opinions on Ordinals, NFT's, and the long term security model of Bitcoin?
Editors' picks
3
I am BACK :) Hello TradingView :) ITs been a minute since I was active in the community. Last post I made was last year in June 2022. Many things have happened that lead to my away and absence from the community, social media and more. I took a much needed break from being infront of the screen, camera and people. IT has been a good time to spend with family. But, after 8 months or so, I feel its a good time to get back to trading community and social media once again. To start sharing trading analysis, forecast, and market updates. I want to resume the market outlook/update stream like before, and start to create more educational contents for everyone once again. IF you are one of those who have supported me during the last 8 months, I greatly appreciate it. Although I dont reply directly on TradingView or other social media pages, I read the comments and feel posiitive from your encouragement. Thank you very much, and hope to see you all in the live streams to come. :) Cheers Jojo
Editors' picks
115
DJIA daily are we ready for a major move?DJIA daily is still in its symmetrical triangle and just can't move up or down from it. 8, 20, and 50 days MA are coiling on the same levels and will produce a major move in the one direction. Breakout or down should be strong and fast. It is very close to the end of the triangle but it seems it is more bearish than bullish. Just the fact it can't move away from the lower line is bearish. Price is above r20, 50, and Big Red which is bullish, but if it drops, it will be right away below 20 and 50 days MA which will be bearish and fast. Yesterday's volume confirms huge indecision in the market which can be both bearish and bullish. RSI and MACD are for now neutral. Overall: DJIA is probably the only indices that didn't receive a buy or sell signal in our Daily morning brief and will stay like that until it chooses which side will go. Break from the triangle will very likely be very powerful and strong. With the move up even testing of ATH would be possible, but with a move below trend lines support at Big Red will for sure be tested and then likely lows from 2022. Overall same like SPY, Powell's speech could move the market.
Editors' picks
9
AI: Google challenges Microsoft and launches BardInvestment confirms how the Silicon Valley giants are ready to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology. Google (NASDAQ:{{6369|GOOGL}}) is challenging Microsoft (NASDAQ:{{252|MSFT}}) and launching Bard, the rival to ChatGPT, the OpenAI application on which the Redmond giant has bet billions of dollars. The introduction of Bard, the name seems to evoke William Shakespeare, the Bard par excellence of Anglo-Saxon culture, confirms how the race for artificial intelligence is accelerating, with Silicon Valley giants poised to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology. In recent days Mountain View had announced a $300 million investment in the start-up Anthropic, an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. And now it is pushing further ahead with the introduction of Bard, which will initially be available for testing to trusted testers and then later be introduced to the general public, similar to how OpenAI did with ChatGPT. "Secure, quality responses" - The testers have been selected, they are a geographically diverse group that will help Google improve and understand users' use of artificial intelligence. "We will combine external feedback with our internal testing to make sure that Bard's responses are quality, secure, and grounded in the real world," explained Mountain View CEO Sundar Pichai, stressing that the testing phase will help Google "continue to learn and improve Bard's quality and speed." Bard aims to generate detailed answers to simple questions. Its operation is based on LaMDA, the Language Model for Dialogue Applications that made headlines last year for being called "sentient" by one of Google's engineers. ChatGPT's success - Microsoft has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT and believed to be one of the world's top three labs for artificial intelligence. OpenAI has recently become a household name for millions of people thanks to the success of ChatGPT, which, since its introduction in November, has seen a boom in users and opened a heated debate about the potential and application of artificial intelligence, forcing schools and universities, among others, to begin rethinking their teaching models. ChatGPT is indeed able to create text like a human being, using clear, defined prose and appropriate punctuation. For Microsoft therefore a huge chance to gain ground in the face of fierce rivals who, however, do not want to fall behind. As demonstrated by Google's Bard and Mark Zuckerberg's commitment to make meta one of the leaders in artificial intelligence.
Editors' picks
7
Big Four Macro Overview: EquitiesSPX Monthly Log Scale: -Despite last years 28% decline, the defining uptrends remain intact. In my view, the A1-B1 trendline best defines the bull market but decent arguments can also be made for C-D. A test of C-D would require that the market decline roughly 30% from the most recent close. - In the absence of overtly bearish behaviors and with the primary trendlines intact, I would be hard pressed to conclude that the macro trend has changed. The secular bull remains intact and it should be given the benefit of the doubt. -That said, my fundamental world view continues to suggest that equity remains vulnerable. I believe that the primary trend is in a transition between bull and bear (or at least bull to neutral). - While still willing to take bullish trades, I will monitor closely for opportunities to sell solid technical setups into weekly perspective strength. -Generally speaking, this position in the trend continues to be characterized by poor valuations and overly developed bullish sentiment. That was certainly true going into last year, but has been somewhat addressed (depending upon the sector). Despite last years decline, I see valuations and sentiment as more consistent with a market building a top as opposed to one basing for a fresh bull run. Triple Screen (MACD Momentum): Suggests that the current weekly perspective rally is corrective to last years monthly decline. The daily (far right) is setting up a significant divergence, suggesting that the current daily perspective uptrend is quickly aging. NYSE Composite Monthly (Log): -Despite last years decline, the technical trend remains intact. -Last years high to low decline covered 25%. Post "Greenspan Put" declines have covered -42%, -60% and -40% respectively. The 25% drawdown seems incomplete to me. Particularly against an environment in which the Fed is deemphasizing asset prices and concentrating on keeping inflaiton inbounds. Fundamentally: 1) Both policy vectors (Fiscal and Monetary) are negative and are unlikely to provide support. This may change if rising rates break the weakest financial link and forces the Fed to pivot to address a systemic issue or the building reccession threatens to become a hard landing. 2) Of the 19 bear markets since 1929, 15 have been accompanied by rising inflation. Rising inflation is by far the most consistent/reliable of the bear market factors. 3) I believe that the period of very low inflation created by globalization, good demographics, and several other factors has reversed. With higher underlying inflation rates, central banks won't have the luxury of combating weak asset prices with unlimited liquidity. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Editors' picks
22
Bitcoin: Sell Setup Retrace 20K?Are you still waiting for 50K? While this kind of forecast is completely unrealistic and out of range, it is ESPECIALLY so in light of the new SELL SIGNAL that has appeared off of the 24K resistance following Friday's NFP outcome. As I wrote in my previous analysis, when 5 waves can be clearly counted, the move has likely run out of steam. While this is still a risky short, being long anywhere from 23 to 24K poses very high risk as well. This is a perfect example of when to avoid swing trades and mitigate risk by working with smaller time frames. The next swing trade idea that I am WAITING for is the retrace into the next relevant support AREA between 22K and 20K (see rectangle on chart). If this support manages to hold, it can offer an opportunity to capitalize on a retest of the 24K, and possibly a push into the 25K resistance. This type of move can take weeks to unfold, and is relevant only to the recent bullish momentum generated off the 17K area low. I mention this specifically because when observed from the weekly time frame, the broader trend is still arguably bearish. The recent move in Bitcoin may be nothing more than an over reaction (short squeeze) following the move in the Nasdaq and weakness in the Dollar. As long as 25K is not compromised, jumping to the conclusion of a new bullish trend is premature. This is NOT about profit, it is about accounting for RISK. It is important to understand that charts provide a very limited view of potential outcomes because of the assumption that current factors driving the market stay the same. Things CHANGE very quickly and a chart cannot account for unexpected news events in the future. This is why long term opinions are about as valuable as a pet rock. Many are extremely desperate for you to believe that they know something, when in fact that are only betting on the random nature of the market to make them look right. Okay you get it, but what about all this short term movement? You hate to wait, and want action. That is what smaller time frame strategies are all about. For Bitcoin that can mean working with 4 hour, 30 minute and even 5 minute time frames. When working on such time frames, your risk/reward expectations must also stay in proportion to the time frame. If you mix expectations here, you will simply lose, a LOT. For example, 5 minute expectations average around 80 to 100 points of risk, while 150 to 200 points of profit are within reason. IF you expect MORE, you will get stopped out often. Smaller time frames are where the random nature of the market is most prevalent. An open mind and strong decisiveness are major requirements (A LOT of experience also helps). Begin with 30 minute price structures, formulate expectations, identify your levels and wait for setups. I have streamed many examples of this. Keep in mind you ALWAYS have the option to WAIT for a higher probability opportunity. This is why I always emphasize learning to judge for yourself rather than listening to those who are incapable of controlling their emotions, or push some other hidden agenda. Learn to listen to PRICE not PEOPLE. A chart offers limited information but it pays to know which information on a chart carries the MOST actionable value, Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
Editors' picks
51
Nasdaq: Short-term bull Long-term rangeWhy market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range? We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other. Refer to the related video link, I explained at greater length. Or you can always visit my YouTube channel. Content: . Why market is entering into a short-term bullishness? (Fundamental & Technical studies) . Subsequently the market will enter into a range (Fundamental & Technical studies) CME Micro Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 = $0.50 1 = $2 10 = $20 100 = $200 1000 = $2,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
Long
10
The yield curve has to un-invert eventually… right? (Part 2)This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K number. - Unemployment rate continues to fall further, reaching a 53-year low of 3.4% A clear re-pricing has occurred since last Friday’s better-than-expected jobs data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. With markets now expecting 1 more rate hike in May, bringing the peak rate up from the 475 -500 bps range to the 500-525 bps range. Keeping this in mind, we go back to our analysis last week to understand this situation and historical precedence. While the time for a pause in rate hike seems to be pushed back, in the grand scheme of things, we think that this has only kept the window of opportunity for this trade open for longer and at a more attractive entry point now. Without repeating ourselves too much, we encourage readers to take a look at our idea last week which explores the historical correlation between the peaking of yield curve inversion and the pause in Fed rate hikes. Link to our last week’s idea: This week, let’s tap into a different instrument. Here, we aim to take a short position on the 2Y-10Y yield differential by creating a portfolio of Treasury futures to express this view. To do so, we would have to first select the 2 instruments, the 2-Yr Treasury futures is a straightforward choice for the short end. But for the 10-Yr leg, we have a choice of the '10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' vs the 'Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Note Futures'. Digging into the contract specification, the 'Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' provide a better proxy for the true 10-year duration exposure as the delivery requirements are for Treasuries with maturities between 9year 5 months and 10 years. In comparison, the underlying of '10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' has a maturity between 6 year 6 months and 10 years. With contract selection out of the way, the next step is to calculate the Dollar Neutral spread. This requires us to identify the DV01 of the front and back legs of the spread and try to match them. This is to ensure that the entire position remains as close to dollar neutral as possible, so we can get a 'purer' exposure to the yield difference between the front and back legs, and parallel moves are negated. CME publishes articles on this topic to explain the setting up of a DV01 spread clearer than we can explain. You can find them attached in the reference section below. You can handily find the DV01 of the Cheapest To Deliver (CTD) securities on CME’s website. In this case, we are looking at the 2Yr and Ultra 10Yr Treasury Futures to set up the trade. With the DV01 of the 2Yr at 34.04 and the DV01 of the Ultra 10Yr at 96.26. The spread ratio can be calculated as 96.26/34.04 = 2.83. Rounding this to the nearest whole number, we would need 3 lots of2-Yr Treasury Future and 1 lot of Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Future, to keep the DV01 equal (neutral) for both legs of this portfolio. Given our view of the 2Yr-10Yr yield spread turning lower, we want to short the yield spread. Yield and prices move inversely, hence, to short the yield spread, we long the Treasury Futures spread as it is quoted in price. We can long 3 ZTH3 Futures (2Y Treasury Future) and short 1 TNH3 futures (Ultra 10Y Treasury Future) to complete 1 set of the spread. However, since the 2-Yr Treasury Futures has a notional value of 200,000 while the Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures a notional of $100,000, the price ratio will be 6:1 when the position/leg ratio in the spread trade is 3:1. As such the current level would provide us with an entry point of roughly 494 with a minimal move in Ultra 10yrs representing 15.625 USD and that in 2Y representing 7.8125 USD. While slightly more complex in setting up, this trade allows us another alternative to express the same view on the yield curve spread differential. Being able to execute the trade via different instruments allows you to pick the most liquid markets to trade or take advantage of mispricing in the markets. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Editors' picks
Long
9

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February 08February 08

Throwing us a bone

As they often do, the Fed’s comments had an impact on the markets this week. Although this time, it wasn’t all doom and gloom. Jerome Powell has thrown the markets a bone – saying that inflation (particularly in the goods sector) has started to go down. A comment which the markets certainly appreciated. But before everyone could get carried away, he sobered the mood by reminding us that we’re not out of the woods yet.

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I am BACK :) Hello TradingView :) ITs been a minute since I was active in the community. Last post I made was last year in June 2022. Many things have happened that lead to my away and absence from the community, social media and more. I took a much needed break from being infront of the screen, camera and people. IT has been a good time to spend with family. But, after 8 months or so, I feel its a good time to get back to trading community and social media once again. To start sharing trading analysis, forecast, and market updates. I want to resume the market outlook/update stream like before, and start to create more educational contents for everyone once again. IF you are one of those who have supported me during the last 8 months, I greatly appreciate it. Although I dont reply directly on TradingView or other social media pages, I read the comments and feel posiitive from your encouragement. Thank you very much, and hope to see you all in the live streams to come. :) Cheers Jojo
Editors' picks
115
Tron TRX is breaking out! Explosive pump is likely. As you can see, TRX is currently breaking out of the descending triangle on the daily/weekly timeframe, and an explosive pump is now likely! The take-profit is at the top of the triangle, which is 0.18 USDT. I think it's possible to go higher, but we don't want to risk anything, because we could be in wave 5 from the Elliott Wave perspective. Triangles are typically formed as a 4th corrective wave. This bull market that started in January is absolutely amazing, and I hope it will continue as long as it possibly can! We want to take as much profit as possible from this bull run. Sending USDT via the TRX network (TRC20) is very popular among crypto people. Furthermore, Tron's value held up very well during the 2022 bear market. It's definitely a positive sign. Now is the best time to buy TRX if you don't want to miss out on the upcoming pump! It will be huge! This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately. If we take a look at the previous price action from 2020 to 2021, there are no gaps that need to be filled. In other words, it's possible that we will never go back to these levels. I'm not sure how you feel about it, but I'm already long in the futures market. 171% is a good profit, so be greedy! Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
52
GBPJPY H4: BEST Level to SHORT/HOLD +250/+350 pips(SL/TP)(SWING)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -2500+ ideas published -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -before/after analysis -24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! GBPJPY H4: BEST Level to SHORT/HOLD +250/+350 pips(SL/TP)(SWING) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. tagged as SHORT because 350 pips DUMP still remains. recommend to SHORT/HOLD IT. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: GBPJPY H4 hour candle chart review ::: SPECULATIVE reversal trade setup ::: 159.50 RS DUMP heavy overhead resistance ::: DUMP in progress already ::: SHORT/HOLD rips/rallies after BOUNCE ::: ongoing distribution in progress ::: 350/450 pips downside remains ::: distribution in progress / TOPPED OUT ::: expecting fresh selling / DUMP ::: TP1 BEARS +250 TP2 BEARS +350 pips ::: final TP BEARS is 154 00 short rips/rallies ::: recommended strategy: SHORT/HOLD near 159.50 ::: 159.50 heavy rejection new dump in progress now ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: 154.00 fresh demand zone ::: 159.50 fresh supply zone 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS/BOUNCE/WEAK ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BEARS/DUMP/STRONG RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
47
Chiliz CHZ price is approaching the zone of strong liquidityThe CHZUSDT price is trying to catch up with the upward trend that has been dominating the crypto market for more than a month. The other day, the CHZ price finally consolidated in the upper half of the falling global channel . CHZUSD will soon reach $0.18, and then it will be more difficult for buyers to drive the price up. After all, it is in the range of $0.18-0.28 that a strong liquidity zone is observed. During the 3 autumn months, some bought CHZ in this range and others successfully sold it, and, as we can see, the sellers were stronger. And all because Chiliz announced its sponsorship of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. In fact, the situation around the CHZUSDT price perfectly reflects the trader's saying: "buy rumors and sell facts". While some people were buying CHZ in the expectation that the price of CHZ would skyrocket with the start of the 2022 World Cup, major players were selling CHZ to everyone who want for 3 months. And with the start of the FIFA World Cup 20.11.2022, the CHZUSDT price began its -65% drop. Therefore, it is very likely that those who have been sitting in a "painful deposit drawdown" for more than 3 months will sell their CHZ "to zero" in the range of $0.18-0.28. This is how human psychology works. And this, in turn, will slow down growth. _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
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From "FED's pivot" hopes to a "strong labor market" excuseYesterday brought another interesting trading session, with the market being very complacent before Jerome Powell’s speech. However, as soon as he walked on the stage at the Economic Club of Washington, the market rallied. In the early minutes of the speech, SPX jumped up approximately 1.20%. Although, once the FED’s chairman mentioned ongoing rate hikes in the future, SPX slumped by almost 1.8%, bringing it into negative territory. Then again, a few minutes later, the market found its excuse in a strong labor market and rallied toward the end of the day. As a result, SPX closed 1.29% up for the day. This market behavior continues to highlight a tense yet very optimistic mood among market participants, who are back to buying dips. Nonetheless, nothing changes in the big picture. The rally continues against worsening economic data (corporations being hit by a significant decline in net income in 2022, a slowdown in economic activity, declining consumer savings, slow growth of wages, etc.) and assurances of the FED to tighten economic conditions even more in 2023. Overall, the market sentiment seems to have shifted from investors looking for FED’s pivot to them focusing on strong labor market data. Just like on previous occasions, we do not argue against the continuation of the rally in the short term. However, we continue to notice more and more problems in the economy and a growing disconnect between market expectations and reality. That casts a dubious shadow over the market’s performance in the coming months and moves us closer to a big repricing event. With that said, we stick to our price target on the downside for SPX in 2023 at $3 400. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 1-minute chart of SPX. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. If the price breaks above Resistance 1, it will bolster a bullish case in the short term; contrarily, if the price breaks below Support 1, it will hint at exhaustion in the rally. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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🥇 GOLD The price is moving forward. Target open - 1900Gold enters a new local range and forms a retest of support at 1879. From this level, the price can go to the area of 1900. 1) The situation is bullish for now 2) The price consolidates above the liquidity area 1870-1880 2) The next target with active growth is the liquidity area 1910-1920, followed by 1920-1930 3) The trend is still bullish, the priority is to buy The price forms a retest of the previously broken level 1879. This could be a touch or a false breakout. We wait for the consolidation above the level to open a buy position.
Long
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RLinda ! GOLD-> Is a pullback to the 1900 area possible? Gold gives us a hint for growth, A stop in the 1870 zone and a break of the local resistance can promise a rise to the strong 1900 zone, what to expect from the price? Gold is coming out of a consolidation. There are similarities with the scenario from early January. The price breaks through the 1879 line and forms a momentum, testing the high of 1886. There is a chance that gold will soon make a pullback to the previously broken line. The price gets support from MA-50 and breaks through the bollinger line, which might also be a signal. I expect the price consolidation in the long zone (above the area of 1880 with the following continuation of growth to the base of the uptrend - support 1900 Regards R. Linda!
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5 Things To Remember About Bull MarketsHey everyone! 👋 Bull markets are a time of optimism and growth, and they can be a great opportunity for making substantial gains. However, it's important to remember that bull markets don't last forever, and it's crucial to approach them with a healthy dose of caution while keeping your eye on your long-term goals. 🙂 Here are a few things to keep in mind when trading and investing in bull markets: 🚨 Don't get caught up in the speculative frenzy It's important to remain level-headed and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term gains. Take time to thoroughly research any trades you're considering. It’s always good to focus on ideas with strong fundamentals as well as technicals. 📚 Keep an eye on valuations In a bull market, it's common for prices to rise, sometimes to levels that may not be justified by a the underlying fundamentals. For investors, it can be important to keep an eye on supply and demand, valuation, and more to make sure the assets you're positioned in are reasonably priced. 🔔 Be prepared for reversals Like all good things, the Bull markets too eventually come to an end. Hence, it's essential to be prepared for a downturn. It’s always good to manage risk exposure by employing techniques such as diversification, hedging and more. 💸 Control your risk It's natural to want to hold on to the positions that are performing well, but it's important to remember that bull markets eventually come to an end. If you've made substantial gains, trailing may be a good option to lock in profits should things change quickly. Letting the winners ride by continually trailing your positions is a particularly good strategy for improving a trade’s Risk-Reward ratio. 📈 Keep a long-term perspective Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Bull markets can be a great opportunity for gains, but it's important to keep a long-term perspective about your goals. Did you miss the big moves? Don’t get angry and make bad decisions. There will be more opportunities down the road to apply what you’ve learned. Bull markets can provide excellent opportunities, however, they must be approached with caution and with defined personal goals. Consider the risks and rewards of each investment, keep an eye on valuations, and always be prepared for a downturn. We hope you enjoyed this post! Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below. – Team TradingView ❤️
Editors' picks
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BTC & Golden CrossBTC / USDT What is golden cross ? “A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (blue) crosses above the 200-day moving average(red). It’s a bullish sign, indicating that the market may be heading toward a longer-term uptrend or bull market” In BTC history usually when golden cross occurs it turns into bullish market in mid - long term (few exceptions happened in past when BTC got dumped after that like after news of COVID crisis) What can we see in chart The previous two golden crosses shown in my chart and BTC pumped after them … The current one about to occurs and a retest of falling wedge and local correction can also happen before continuation of bullish trend Don’t forget to Like this idea and follow me for more…
Long
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Machine Learning: Lorentzian Classification█ OVERVIEW A Lorentzian Distance Classifier (LDC) is a Machine Learning classification algorithm capable of categorizing historical data from a multi-dimensional feature space. This indicator demonstrates how Lorentzian Classification can also be used to predict the direction of future price movements when used as the distance metric for a novel implementation of an Approximate Nearest Neighbors (ANN) algorithm. █ BACKGROUND In physics, Lorentzian space is perhaps best known for its role in describing the curvature of space-time in Einstein's theory of General Relativity (2). Interestingly, however, this abstract concept from theoretical physics also has tangible real-world applications in trading. Recently, it was hypothesized that Lorentzian space was also well-suited for analyzing time-series data (4), (5). This hypothesis has been supported by several empirical studies that demonstrate that Lorentzian distance is more robust to outliers and noise than the more commonly used Euclidean distance (1), (3), (6). Furthermore, Lorentzian distance was also shown to outperform dozens of other highly regarded distance metrics, including Manhattan distance, Bhattacharyya similarity, and Cosine similarity (1), (3). Outside of Dynamic Time Warping based approaches, which are unfortunately too computationally intensive for PineScript at this time, the Lorentzian Distance metric consistently scores the highest mean accuracy over a wide variety of time series data sets (1). Euclidean distance is commonly used as the default distance metric for NN-based search algorithms, but it may not always be the best choice when dealing with financial market data. This is because financial market data can be significantly impacted by proximity to major world events such as FOMC Meetings and Black Swan events. This event-based distortion of market data can be framed as similar to the gravitational warping caused by a massive object on the space-time continuum. For financial markets, the analogous continuum that experiences warping can be referred to as "price-time". Below is a side-by-side comparison of how neighborhoods of similar historical points appear in three-dimensional Euclidean Space and Lorentzian Space: This figure demonstrates how Lorentzian space can better accommodate the warping of price-time since the Lorentzian distance function compresses the Euclidean neighborhood in such a way that the new neighborhood distribution in Lorentzian space tends to cluster around each of the major feature axes in addition to the origin itself. This means that, even though some nearest neighbors will be the same regardless of the distance metric used, Lorentzian space will also allow for the consideration of historical points that would otherwise never be considered with a Euclidean distance metric. Intuitively, the advantage inherent in the Lorentzian distance metric makes sense. For example, it is logical that the price action that occurs in the hours after Chairman Powell finishes delivering a speech would resemble at least some of the previous times when he finished delivering a speech. This may be true regardless of other factors, such as whether or not the market was overbought or oversold at the time or if the macro conditions were more bullish or bearish overall. These historical reference points are extremely valuable for predictive models, yet the Euclidean distance metric would miss these neighbors entirely, often in favor of irrelevant data points from the day before the event. By using Lorentzian distance as a metric, the ML model is instead able to consider the warping of price-time caused by the event and, ultimately, transcend the temporal bias imposed on it by the time series. For more information on the implementation details of the Approximate Nearest Neighbors (ANN) algorithm used in this indicator, please refer to the detailed comments in the source code. █ HOW TO USE Below is an explanatory breakdown of the different parts of this indicator as it appears in the interface: Below is an explanation of the different settings for this indicator: General Settings: Source - This has a default value of "hlc3" and is used to control the input data source. Neighbors Count - This has a default value of 8, a minimum value of 1, a maximum value of 100, and a step of 1. It is used to control the number of neighbors to consider. Max Bars Back - This has a default value of 2000. Feature Count - This has a default value of 5, a minimum value of 2, and a maximum value of 5. It controls the number of features to use for ML predictions. Color Compression - This has a default value of 1, a minimum value of 1, and a maximum value of 10. It is used to control the compression factor for adjusting the intensity of the color scale. Show Exits - This has a default value of false. It controls whether to show the exit threshold on the chart. Use Dynamic Exits - This has a default value of false. It is used to control whether to attempt to let profits ride by dynamically adjusting the exit threshold based on kernel regression. Feature Engineering Settings: Note: The Feature Engineering section is for fine-tuning the features used for ML predictions. The default values are optimized for the 4H to 12H timeframes for most charts, but they should also work reasonably well for other timeframes. By default, the model can support features that accept two parameters (Parameter A and Parameter B, respectively). Even though there are only 4 features provided by default, the same feature with different settings counts as two separate features. If the feature only accepts one parameter, then the second parameter will default to EMA-based smoothing with a default value of 1. These features represent the most effective combination I have encountered in my testing, but additional features may be added as additional options in the future. Feature 1 - This has a default value of "RSI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Feature 2 - This has a default value of "WT" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Feature 3 - This has a default value of "CCI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Feature 4 - This has a default value of "ADX" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Feature 5 - This has a default value of "RSI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX". Filters Settings: Use Volatility Filter - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to use the volatility filter. Use Regime Filter - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to use the trend detection filter. Use ADX Filter - This has a default value of false. It is used to control whether to use the ADX filter. Regime Threshold - This has a default value of -0.1, a minimum value of -10, a maximum value of 10, and a step of 0.1. It is used to control the Regime Detection filter for detecting Trending/Ranging markets. ADX Threshold - This has a default value of 20, a minimum value of 0, a maximum value of 100, and a step of 1. It is used to control the threshold for detecting Trending/Ranging markets. Kernel Regression Settings: Trade with Kernel - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to trade with the kernel. Show Kernel Estimate - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to show the kernel estimate. Lookback Window - This has a default value of 8 and a minimum value of 3. It is used to control the number of bars used for the estimation. Recommended range: 3-50 Relative Weighting - This has a default value of 8 and a step size of 0.25. It is used to control the relative weighting of time frames. Recommended range: 0.25-25 Start Regression at Bar - This has a default value of 25. It is used to control the bar index on which to start regression. Recommended range: 0-25 Display Settings: Show Bar Colors - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to show the bar colors. Show Bar Prediction Values - This has a default value of true. It controls whether to show the ML model's evaluation of each bar as an integer. Use ATR Offset - This has a default value of false. It controls whether to use the ATR offset instead of the bar prediction offset. Bar Prediction Offset - This has a default value of 0 and a minimum value of 0. It is used to control the offset of the bar predictions as a percentage from the bar high or close. Backtesting Settings: Show Backtest Results - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to display the win rate of the given configuration. █ WORKS CITED (1) R. Giusti and G. E. A. P. A. Batista, "An Empirical Comparison of Dissimilarity Measures for Time Series Classification," 2013 Brazilian Conference on Intelligent Systems, Oct. 2013, DOI: 10.1109/bracis.2013.22. (2) Y. Kerimbekov, H. Ş. Bilge, and H. H. Uğurlu, "The use of Lorentzian distance metric in classification problems," Pattern Recognition Letters, vol. 84, 170–176, Dec. 2016, DOI: 10.1016/j.patrec.2016.09.006. (3) A. Bagnall, A. Bostrom, J. Large, and J. Lines, "The Great Time Series Classification Bake Off: An Experimental Evaluation of Recently Proposed Algorithms." ResearchGate, Feb. 04, 2016. (4) H. Ş. Bilge, Yerzhan Kerimbekov, and Hasan Hüseyin Uğurlu, "A new classification method by using Lorentzian distance metric," ResearchGate, Sep. 02, 2015. (5) Y. Kerimbekov and H. Şakir Bilge, "Lorentzian Distance Classifier for Multiple Features," Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Pattern Recognition Applications and Methods, 2017, DOI: 10.5220/0006197004930501. (6) V. Surya Prasath et al., "Effects of Distance Measure Choice on KNN Classifier Performance - A Review." . █ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS @veryfid - For many invaluable insights, discussions, and advice that helped to shape this project. @capissimo - For open sourcing his interesting ideas regarding various KNN implementations in PineScript, several of which helped inspire my original undertaking of this project. @RikkiTavi - For many invaluable physics-related conversations and for his helping me develop a mechanism for visualizing various distance algorithms in 3D using JavaScript @jlaurel - For invaluable literature recommendations that helped me to understand the underlying subject matter of this project. @annutara - For help in beta-testing this indicator and for sharing many helpful ideas and insights early on in its development. @jasontaylor7 - For helping to beta-test this indicator and for many helpful conversations that helped to shape my backtesting workflow @meddymarkusvanhala - For helping to beta-test this indicator @dlbnext - For incredibly detailed backtesting testing of this indicator and for sharing numerous ideas on how the user experience could be improved.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
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Smart Money Concepts [LuxAlgo]This all-in-one indicator displays real-time market structure (internal & swing BOS / CHoCH), order blocks, premium & discount zones, equal highs & lows, and much more...allowing traders to automatically mark up their charts with widely used price action methodologies. Following the release of our Fair Value Gap script, we received numerous requests from our community to release more features in the same category. "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) is a fairly new yet widely used term amongst price action traders looking to more accurately navigate liquidity & find more optimal points of interest in the market. Trying to determine where institutional market participants have orders placed (buy or sell side liquidity) can be a very reasonable approach to finding more practical entries & exits based on price action. The indicator includes alerts for the presence of swing structures and many other relevant conditions. Features This indicator includes many features relevant to SMC, these are highlighted below: Full internal & swing market structure labeling in real-time Break of Structure (BOS) Change of Character (CHoCH) Order Blocks (bullish & bearish) Equal Highs & Lows Fair Value Gap Detection Previous Highs & Lows Premium & Discount Zones as a range Options to style the indicator to more easily display these concepts Settings Mode: Allows the user to select Historical (default) or Present, which displays only recent data on the chart. Style: Allows the user to select different styling for the entire indicator between Colored (default) and Monochrome. Color Candles: Plots candles based on the internal & swing structures from within the indicator on the chart. Internal Structure: Displays the internal structure labels & dashed lines to represent them. (BOS & CHoCH). Confluence Filter: Filter non-significant internal structure breakouts. Swing Structure: Displays the swing structure labels & solid lines on the chart (larger BOS & CHoCH labels). Swing Points: Displays swing points labels on chart such as HH, HL, LH, LL. Internal Order Blocks: Enables Internal Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Internal Order Blocks appear on the chart. Swing Order Blocks: Enables Swing Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Swing Order Blocks appear on the chart. Equal Highs & Lows: Displays EQH/EQL labels on chart for detecting equal highs & lows. Bars Confirmation: Allows the user to select how many bars are needed to confirm an EQH/EQL symbol on chart. Fair Value Gaps: Displays boxes to highlight imbalance areas on the chart. Auto Threshold: Filter out non-significant fair value gaps. Timeframe: Allows the user to select the timeframe for the Fair Value Gap detection. Extend FVG: Allows the user to choose how many bars to extend the Fair Value Gap boxes on the chart. Highs & Lows MTF: Allows the user to display previous highs & lows from daily, weekly, & monthly timeframes as significant levels. Premium/Discount Zones: Allows the user to display Premium, Discount, and Equilibrium zones on the chart Usage Users can see automatic CHoCH and BOS labels to highlight breakouts of market structure, which allows to determine the market trend. In the chart below we can see the internal structure which displays more frequent labels within larger structures. We can also see equal highs & lows (EQH/EQL) labels plotted alongside the internal structure to frequently give indications of potential reversals. In the chart below we can see the swing market structure labels. These are also labeled as BOS and CHoCH but with a solid line & larger text to show larger market structure breakouts & trend reversals. Users can be mindful of these larger structure labels while trading internal structures as displayed in the previous chart. Order blocks highlight areas where institutional market participants open positions, one can use order blocks to determine confirmation entries or potential targets as we can expect there is a large amount of liquidity at these order blocks. In the chart below we can see 2 potential trade setups with confirmation entries. The path outlined in red would be a potential short entry targeting the blue order block below, and the path outlined in green would be a potential long entry, targeting the red order blocks above. As we can see in the chart below, the bullish confirmation entry played out in this scenario with the green path outlined in hindsight. As price breaks though the order blocks above, the indicator will consider them mitigated causing them to disappear, and as per the logic of these order blocks they will always display 5 (by default) on the chart so we can now see more actionable levels. The Smart Money Concepts indicator has many other features and here we can see how they can also help a user find potential levels for price action trading. In the screenshot below we can see a trade setup using the Previous Monthly High, Strong High, and a Swing Order Block as a stop loss. Accompanied by the Premium from the Discount/Premium zones feature being used as a potential entry. A potential take profit level for this trade setup that a user could easily identify would be the 50% mark labeled with the Fair Value Gap & the Equilibrium all displayed automatically by the indicator. Conclusion This indicator highlights all relevant components of Smart Money Concepts which can be a very useful interpretation of market structure, liquidity, & more simply put, price action. The term was coined & popularized primarily within the forex community & by ICT while making its way to become a part of many traders' analysis. These concepts, with or without this indicator do not guarantee a trader to be trading within the presence of institutional or "bank-level" liquidity, there is no supporting data regarding the validity of these teachings.
Pine Script™ indicator
443
Hurst Diamond Notation PivotsThis is a fairly simple indicator for diamond notation of past hi/lo pivot points, a common method in Hurst analysis. The diamonds mark the troughs/peaks of each cycle. They are offset by their lookback and thus will not 'paint' until after they happen so anticipate accordingly. Practically, traders can use the average length of past pivot periods to forecast future pivot periods in time🔮. For example, if the average/dominant number of bars in an 80-bar pivot point period/cycle is 76, then a trader might forecast that the next pivot could occur 76-ish bars after the last confirmed pivot. The numbers/labels on the y-axis display the cycle length used for pivot detection. This indicator doesn't repaint, but it has a lot of lag; Please use it for forecasting instead of entry signals. This indicator scans for new pivots in the form of a rainbow line and circle; once the hi/lo has happened and the lookback has passed then the pivot will be plotted. The rainbow color per wavelength theme seems to be authentic to Hurst (or modern Hurst software) and has been included as a default.
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Pine Script™ indicator
44
Fair value bands (Dynamic risk levels, fair value metrics)— Overview Fair value bands, like other band tools, depict dynamic points in price where price behaviour is normal or abnormal, i.e. trading at/around mean (price at fair value) or deviating from mean (price outside fair value). Unlike constantly readjusting standard deviation based bands, fair value bands are designed to be smooth and constant, based on typical historical deviations. The script calculates pivots that take place above/below fair value basis and forms median deviation bands based on this information. These points are then multiplied up to 3, representing more extreme deviations. By default, the script uses OHLC4 and SMA 20 as basis for the bands. Users can form their preferred fair value basis using following options: Price source - Standard OHLC values - HL2 (High + low / 2) - OHLC4 (Open + high + low + close / 4) - HLC3 (High + low + close / 3) - HLCC4 (High + low + close + close / 4) Smoothing - SMA - EMA - HMA - RMA - WMA - VWMA - Median Once fair value basis is established, some additional customization options can be employed: Trend mode Direction based Cross based Trend modes affect fair value basis color that indicates trend direction. Direction based trend considers only the direction of the defined fair value basis, i.e. pointing up is considered an uptrend, vice versa for downtrend. Cross based trends activate when selected source (same options as price source) crosses fair value basis. These sources can be set individually for uptrend/downtrend cross conditions. By default, the script uses cross based trend mode with low and high as sources. Cross based (downtrend not triggered) vs. direction based (downtrend triggered): Threshold band Threshold band is calculated using typical deviations when price is trading at fair value basis. In other words, a little bit of "wiggle room" is added around the mean based on expected deviation. This feature is useful for cross based trends, as it allows filtering insignificant crosses that are more likely just noise. By default, threshold band is calculated based on 1x median deviation from mean. Users can increase/decrease threshold band width via input menu for more/less noise filtering, e.g. 2x threshold band width would require price to cross wiggle room that is 2x wider than typical, 0x erases threshold band altogether. Deviation bands Width of deviation bands by default is based on 1x median deviations and can be increased/decreased in a similar manner to threshold bands. Each combination of customization options produces varying behaviour in the bands. To measure the behaviour and finding fairest representation of fair and unfair value, some data is gathered. — Fair value metrics Space between each band is considered a lot, named +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, -3. For each lot, time spent and volume relative to volume moving average (SMA 20) is recorded each time price is trading in a given lot: Depending on the asset, timeframe and chosen fair value basis, shape of the distributions vary. However, practically always time is distributed in a normal bell curve shape, being highest at lots +1 to -1, gradually decreasing the further price is from the mean. This is hardly surprising, but it allows accurately determining dynamic areas of normal and abnormal price behaviour (i.e. low risk area between +1 and -1, high risk area between +-2 to +-3). Volume on the other hand is typically distributed the other way around, being lowest at lots +1 to -1 and highest at +-2 to +-3. When time and volume are distributed like so, we can conclude that 1) price being outside fair value is a rare event and 2) the more price is outside fair value, the more anomaly behaviour in volume we tend to find. Viewing metric calculations Metric calculation highlights can be enabled from the input menu, resulting in a lot based coloring and visibility of each lot counter (time, cumulative relative volume and average relative volume) in data window: — Alerts Available alerts are the following: Individual - High crossing deviation band (bands +1 to +3 ) - Low crossing deviation band (bands -1 to -3 ) - Low at threshold band in an uptrend - High at threshold band in a downtrend - New uptrend - New downtrend Grouped - New uptrend or downtrend - Deviation band cross (+1 or -1) - Deviation band cross (+2 or -2) - Deviation band cross (+3 or -3) — Practical guide Example #1 : Risk on/risk off trend following Ideal trend stays inside fair value and provides sufficient cool offs between the moves. When this is the case, fair value bands can be used for sensible entry/exit levels within the trend. Example #2 : Mean reversions When price shows exuberance into an extreme deviation, followed by a stall and signs of exhaustion (wicks), an opportunity for mean reversion emerges. The higher the deviation, the more volatility in the move, the more signalling of exhaustion, the better. Example #3 : Tweaking bands for desired behaviour The faster the length of fair value basis, the more momentum price needs to hit extreme deviation levels, as bands too are moving faster alongside price. Decreasing fair value basis length typically leads to more quick and aggressive deviations and less steady trends outside fair value.
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Pine Script™ indicator
19
CVD - Cumulative Volume Delta (Chart)█   OVERVIEW This indicator displays cumulative ​volume delta (​CVD) as an on-chart oscillator. It uses intrabar analysis to obtain more precise ​volume delta information compared to methods that only use the chart's timeframe. The core concepts in this script come from our first ​ CVD indicator , which displays CVD​ values as plot candles in a separate indicator pane. In this script, CV​D values are scaled according to price ranges and represented on the main chart pane. █   CONCEPTS Bar polarity Bar polarity refers to the position of the close price relative to the open price. In other words, bar polarity is the direction of price change. Intrabars Intrabars are chart bars at a lower timeframe than the chart's. Each 1H chart bar of a 24x7 market will, for example, usually contain 60 bars at the lower timeframe of 1min, provided there was market activity during each minute of the hour. Mining information from intrabars can be useful in that it offers traders visibility on the activity inside a chart bar. Lower timeframes (LTFs) A lower timeframe is a timeframe that is smaller than the chart's timeframe. This script utilizes a LTF to analyze intrabars, or price changes within a chart bar. The lower the ​LTF, the more intrabars are analyzed, but the less chart bars can display information due to the limited number of intrabars that can be analyzed. Volume delta Volume delta is a measure that separates ​volume​ into "up" and "down" parts, then takes the difference to estimate the net demand for the asset. This approach gives traders a more detailed insight when analyzing volume​ and market sentiment. There are several methods for determining whether an asset's volume​ belongs in the "up" or "down" category. Some indicators, such as On Balance Volume​ and the Klinger Oscillator , use the change in price between bars to assign ​volume​ values to the appropriate category. Others, such as Chaikin Money Flow , make assumptions based on open, high, low, and close prices. The most accurate method involves using tick data to determine whether each transaction occurred at the bid or ask price and assigning the ​volume​ value to the appropriate category accordingly. However, this method requires a large amount of data on historical bars, which can limit the historical depth of charts and the number of symbols for which tick data is available. In the context where historical tick data is not yet available on TradingView, intrabar analysis is the most precise technique to calculate ​volume delta on historical bars on our charts. This indicator uses intrabar analysis to achieve a compromise between simplicity and accuracy in calculating ​volume delta on historical bars. Our Volume Profile indicators use it as well. Other ​volume delta indicators in our Community Scripts , such as the Realtime 5D Profile , use real-time chart updates to achieve more precise ​volume delta calculations. However, these indicators aren't suitable for analyzing historical bars since they only work for real-time analysis. This is the logic we use to assign intrabar ​volume to the "up" or "down" category:  • If the intrabar's open and close values are different, their relative position is used.  • If the intrabar's open and close values are the same, the difference between the intrabar's close and the previous intrabar's close is used.  • As a last resort, when there is no movement during an intrabar and it closes at the same price as the previous intrabar, the last known polarity is used. Once all intrabars comprising a chart bar are analyzed, we calculate the net difference between "up" and "down" intrabar volume​ to produce the volume​ delta for the chart bar. █   FEATURES CVD resets The "cumulative" part of the indicator's name stems from the fact that calculations accumulate during a period of time. By periodically resetting the volume​ delta accumulation, we can analyze the progression of ​volume delta across manageable chunks, which is often more useful than looking at ​volume delta accumulated from the beginning of a chart's history. You can configure the reset period using the "CVD Resets" input, which offers the following selections:  • None : Calculations do not reset.  • On a fixed higher timeframe : Calculations reset on the higher timeframe you select in the "Fixed higher timeframe" field.  • At a fixed time that you specify.  • At the beginning of the regular session .  • On trend changes : Calculations reset on the direction change of either the Aroon indicator, Parabolic SAR , or Supertrend .  • On a stepped higher timeframe : Calculations reset on a higher timeframe automatically stepped using the chart's timeframe and following these rules: Chart TF ​HTF < 1min 1H < 3H 1D <= 12H 1W < 1W 1M >= 1W 1Y Specifying intrabar precision Ten options are included in the script to control the number of intrabars used per chart bar for calculations. The greater the number of intrabars per chart bar, the fewer chart bars can be analyzed. The first five options allow users to specify the approximate amount of chart bars to be covered:  • Least Precise (Most chart bars) : Covers all chart bars by dividing the current timeframe by four.   This ensures the highest level of intrabar precision while achieving complete coverage for the dataset.  • Less Precise (Some chart bars) & More Precise (Less chart bars) : These options calculate a stepped ​LTF in relation to the current chart's timeframe.  • Very precise (2min intrabars) : Uses the second highest quantity of intrabars possible with the 2min ​LTF.  • Most precise (1min intrabars) : Uses the maximum quantity of intrabars possible with the 1min ​LTF. The stepped lower timeframe for "Less Precise" and "More Precise" options is calculated from the current chart's timeframe as follows: Chart Timeframe Lower Timeframe Less Precise More Precise < 1hr 1min 1min < 1D 15min 1min < 1W ​2hr​ 30min > 1W 1D 60min The last five options allow users to specify an approximate fixed number of intrabars to analyze per chart bar. The available choices are 12, 24, 50, 100, and 250. The script will calculate the LTF​ which most closely approximates the specified number of intrabars per chart bar. Keep in mind that due to factors such as the length of a ticker's sessions and rounding of the LTF​, it is not always possible to produce the exact number specified. However, the script will do its best to get as close to the value as possible. As there is a limit to the number of intrabars that can be analyzed by a script, a tradeoff occurs between the number of intrabars analyzed per chart bar and the chart bars for which calculations are possible. Display This script displays raw or cumulative volume​ delta values on the chart as either line or histogram oscillator zones scaled according to the price chart, allowing traders to visualize volume​ activity on each bar or cumulatively over time. The indicator's background shows where CVD​ resets occur, demarcating the beginning of new zones. The vertical axis of each oscillator zone is scaled relative to the one with the highest price range, and the oscillator values are scaled relative to the highest volume​ delta. A vertical offset is applied to each oscillator zone so that the highest oscillator value aligns with the lowest price. This method ensures an accurate, intuitive visual comparison of volume​ activity within zones, as the scale is consistent across the chart, and oscillator values sit below prices. The vertical scale of oscillator zones can be adjusted using the "Zone Height" input in the script settings. This script displays labels at the highest and lowest oscillator values in each zone, which can be enabled using the "Hi/Lo Labels" input in the "Visuals" section of the script settings. Additionally, the oscillator's value on a chart bar is displayed as a tooltip when a user hovers over the bar, which can be enabled using the "Value Tooltips" input. Divergences occur when the polarity of ​volume delta does not match that of the chart bar. The script displays divergences as bar colors and background colors that can be enabled using the "Color bars on divergences" and "Color background on divergences" inputs. An information box in the lower-left corner of the indicator displays the HTF used for resets, the ​LTF used for intrabars, the average quantity of intrabars per chart bar, and the number of chart bars for which there is LTF data. This is enabled using the "Show information box" input in the "Visuals" section of the script settings. FOR Pine Script™ CODERS  • This script utilizes `ltf()` and `ltfStats()` from the lower_tf library.   The `ltf()` function determines the appropriate lower timeframe from the selected calculation mode and chart timeframe, and returns it in a format that can be used with request.security_lower_tf() .   The `ltfStats()` function, on the other hand, is used to compute and display statistical information about the lower timeframe in an information box.  • The script utilizes display.data_window and display.status_line to restrict the display of certain plots.   These new built-ins allow coders to fine-tune where a script’s plot values are displayed.  • The newly added session.isfirstbar_regular built-in allows for resetting the ​CVD segments at the start of the regular session.  • The VisibleChart library developed by our resident PineCoders team leverages the chart.left_visible_bar_time and chart.right_visible_bar_time variables to optimize the performance of this script.   These variables identify the opening time of the leftmost and rightmost visible bars on the chart, allowing the script to recalculate and draw objects only within the range of visible bars as the user scrolls.   This functionality also enables the scaling of the oscillator zones.   These variables are just a couple of the many new built-ins available in the chart.* namespace.   For more information, check out this blog post or look them up by typing "chart." in the Pine Script™ Reference Manual .  • Our ta library has undergone significant updates recently, including the incorporation of the `aroon()` indicator used as a method for resetting ​CVD segments within this script.   Revisit the library to see more of the newly added content! Look first. Then leap.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
16
Harmonic Patterns Based Trend FollowerEarlier this week, published an idea on how harmonic patterns can be used for trend following. This script is an attempt to implement the same. 🎲 Process 🎯 Derive Zigzag and scan harmonic patterns for last 5 confirmed pivots 🎯 If a pattern is found, highest point of pattern will become the bullish zone and lower point of the pattern will become bearish zone. 🎯 Since it is trend following method, when price reaches bullish zone, then the trend is considered as bullish and when price reaches bearish zone, the trend is considered as bearish. 🎯 If price does not touch both regions, then trend remains unchanged. 🎯 Bullish and bearish zone will change as and when new patterns are formed. 🎲 Note Patterns are not created on latest pivot as last pivot will be unconfirmed and moving. Due to this, patterns appear after certain delay - patterns will not be real time. But, this is expected and does not impact the overall process. When new pattern formed When price breaks over the zones 🎲 Output 🎯 Patterns formed are drawn in blue coloured lines. Due to pine limitation of max 500 lines, older patterns automatically get deleted when new ones come. 🎯 Bullish Zone and Bearish Zone are plotted in green and red colours and the zone will change whenever new pattern comes along. 🎯 Bar colors are changed according to calculated trend. Trend value can be 1 or -1 based on the current trend. You can also find the value in data window. 🎯 For simplicity purpose, input option for selection of specific patterns are not provided and also pattern names are not displayed on the chart.
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Pine Script™ indicator
32
[@btc_charlie] Trader XO Macro Trend ScannerWhat is this script? This script has two main functions focusing on EMAs (Exponential Moving Average) and Stochastic RSI. EMAs EMAs are typically used to give a view of bullish / bearish momentum. When the shorter EMA (calculated off more recent price action) crosses, or is above, the slower moving EMA (calculated off a longer period of price action), it suggests that the market is in an uptrend. This can be an indication to either go long on said asset, or that it is more preferable to take long setups over short setups. Invalidation on long setups is usually found via price action (e.g. previous lows) or simply waiting for an EMA cross in the opposite direction (i.e. shorter EMA crosses under longer term EMA). This is not a perfect system for trade entry or exit, but it does give a good indication of market trends. The settings for the EMAs can be changed based on user inputs, and by default the candles are coloured based on the crosses to make it more visual. The default settings are based on “Trader XO’s” settings who is an exceptional swing trader. RSI Stochastic RSI is a separate indicator that has been added to this script. RSI measures Relative Strength (RSI = Relative Strength Index). When RSI is <20 it is considered oversold, and when >80 it is overbought. These conditions suggests that momentum is very strong in the direction of the trend. If there is a divergence between the price (e.g. price is creating higher highs, and stoch RSI is creating lower highs) it suggests the strength of the trend is weakening. Whilst this script does not highlight divergences, what it does highlight is when the shorter term RSI (K) crosses over D (the average of last 3 periods). This can give an indication that the trend is losing strength. Combination The EMAs indicate when trend shifts (bullish or bearish). The RSI indicates when the trend is losing momentum. The combination of the two can be used to suggest when to prefer a directional bias, and subsequently shift in anticipation of a trend reversal. Note that no signal is 100% accurate and an interpretation of market conditions and price action will need to be overlayed to Why is it different to others? I have not found other scripts that are available in this way visually including alerts when Stoch RSI crosses over/under the extremes; or the mid points. Whilst these indicators are default, the combination of them and how they are presented is not and makes use of the TradingView colouring functionalities. What are the features? Customise the variables (averages) used in the script. Display as one EMA or two EMAs (the crossing ones). Alerts on EMA crosses. Alerts on Stoch RSI crosses - slow/fast, upper, lower areas. - Currently set on the chart to show alerts when Stoch RSI is above 80, then falls below 80 (and colours it red). Customisable colours. What are the best conditions for this? It is designed for high timeframe charts and analysis in crypto, since crypto tends to trend. It can however be used for lower timeframes. Disclaimer/Notes: I have noticed several videos appearing suggesting that this is a "100% win rate indicator" . NO indicator has 100% win rate. An indicator is an *indicator* that is all. Please use responsibly and let me know if there are any mods or updates you would like to see.
Pine Script™ indicator
7
True Trend Average BandsThis is the indicator I am most proud of. After reading Glenn Neely's book "Mastering Eliott Waves" / "Neowave" and chatting with @timwest who got acknowledged by Neely, we came up with the idea of an moving average which does calculate the real average price since a trend started. Addionally I adapted a method from Neely Neowave and Tim Wests TimeAtMode to not force a timeframe on a chart but instead let the charts data decide which timeframe to use, to then calculate the real average price since the trend started. It took me a while to get this right and coded, so take a moment and dive deeper and you might learn something new. We assume that the price is in multiple trends on multiple timeframes, this is caused by short term traders, long term traders and investors who trade on different timeframes. To find out in which timeframe the important trends are, we have to look out for significant lows and highs. Then we change the timeframe in the chart to a value so that we have 10 to 20 bars since the significant low/high. While new bars are printed, and we reach more than 20 bars, we have to switch to a higher timeframe so we have 10 to 20 bars again. In the chart you see two significant trends: a downtrend on the 3 week timeframe and an uptrend from the 2 month timeframe. Based on the logic I have described, these are the two important timeframes to watch right now for the spx (there is another uptrend in the yearly chart, which is not shown here). Now that we understand how to find the important timeframes, let's look what the magic in this script is that tells us the real average price since a trend started. I developed a new type of moving average, which includes only the prices since a trend started. The difference to the regular sma is that it will not include prices which happened before the significant low or high happened. For example, if a top happened in a market 10 days ago, the regular sma20 would be calculated by 10 bars which happened before the top and 10 bars which happened after the top. If we want to know the average price of the last 10 bars we manually have to change the ma20 to the ma10 which is annoying manual work, additionally even if we use the ma10 in this case, and we look at yesterday's bar the ma10 will include 9 bars from after the top and one bar before the top, so the ma10 would only show the real average price for the current bar which is not what we want. To come up with a solution to this problem, the True Trend Average searches for the lowest/highest bar in a given period (20 bars). Then starts to calculate the average value since the low/high. For example: if the price reaches a new 20 day high and then trades below it, the day of the high will be the sma1, the day after it's the sma2, ... up to the maximum look back length. This way, we always know what the average price would have been if someone sold/bought a little bit every bar of his investment since the high/low. Why is this even important? Let's assume we missed selling the top or buying the low, and think it would have been at least better to buy/sell a little bit since the new trend started. Once the price reaches the true trend average again, we can buy/sell, and it would be as good as selling/buying a little bit every day. We find prices to buy the dip and sell the bounce, which are as good as scaling in/out. There is a lot more we can learn from these price levels but I think it is better to let you figure out yourself what you can learn from the information given by this indicator. Think about how market participants who accumulate or distribute feel when prices are above or below certain levels. Now that we understand this new type of moving average, let's look into the lines we see in the chart: The upper red band line shows the true trend average high price since the last significant top within 20 bars. The lower red band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant top within 20 bars. The lower green band line shows the true trend average low price since the last significant low within 20 bars. The upper green band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant low within 20 bars. The centerline is the average between the upper red band and the lower green band. The teal lines show 1 standard deviation from the outer bands. Before today only a few people had access to this indicator, now that it is public and open source, I am curious if you will find it useful and what you will do with it. Please share your findings. /edit: The chart only shows the 3week timeframe so here are the other two trends from the 2month and 1year timeframe
Pine Script™ indicator
13
Financials - Comparing CompaniesHello All For a while I have been working on this indicator to compare financials of the companies and sort them accordingly. Finally I completed and published it. I preferred using new object type feature in Pine language™ and I hope it might be an example and helpful for the developers. First of all, as we have limitation on security calls, the indicator can get and compare financials for 5 companies only. also Chart time frame must be 1Day or higher! ( I recommend 1Day time frame ). if not then the indicator stops and shows the error message: "Please set the time frame 1Day or higher" . More important than others: You should choose the companies from the same sector! Compare apples to apples :) The Financials in the indicator: Earnings Per Share Price to Earnings Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Profit Margin Dept to Equity Current Ratio Market Capitalization Also more information shown for each stocks: Closing Price, sets the color accordingly 2 Simple/Exponential moving average, you can set the length, also it checks if it is rising/falling and sets the color accordingly Volume info Average volume (20 days), you can set the period Currency for each security Lets see some features in it: it sorts the companies according to the financials: If you move the mouse onto any header then it shows explanation about the financial: You can change location and text size: You can set the type of Moving averages as SMA or EMA and you can also set the length for both . Headers for both are changed automatically by MA type and length Colors for Closing price and MA cells are set automatically: For new Objects in Pine language click here P.S. You can use this indicator while analyzing the financials of the companies in same sector/industry. So please don't ask for the alerts :) Enjoy!
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
23
NET BSP NET BSP derived from Buying & Selling Pressure which is a volatility indicator that monitors average metrics of green and red candles separately. We could navigate more confidently through market with projected market balance. BSP allowed us to track and analyze the ongoing performance of bullish and bearish impulsive waves and their corrections. Due to unintuitive way of measuring decline with SP going up, I decided to remake it into more intuitive version with better precision. When we encounter the fall it's better to have declining values of tool to be able to cover it visually with ease. One of the solutions was to create a sense of balance of Buying Pressure against Selling Pressure. Since we are oriented by growth, it'd be more logical to summarize the market balance with BP - SP Comparison: When Buying and Selling Pressure are equal, NET BSP would be at 0. NETBSP > 0 and NETBSP > NETBSP = 🟢 NETBSP > 0 and NETBSP < NETBSP = 🟡 NETBSP < 0 and NETBSP < NETBSP = 🔴 NETBSP < 0 and NETBSP > NETBSP = 🟡 Hence, we get visualized stages of uptrends and downtrends which allows to evaluate chances and estimations of upcoming counter-waves. Also, it is worth to note that output clearly shows how one wave is derived from another in terms of sizing. Feel free to adjust NET BSP arguments to adapt sensitivity to the timeframe you're working on.
Pine Script™ indicator
20

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Educational ideas

What I've learned after backtesting So, I love backtesting. Recently I've found my self in a 3% drawdown and needed to figure out what the cause of it was and trading at this moment won't give me that answer. So, I decided to backtest. Here is what I found: 1. I'm overtrading my system I am a proud swing trader who got back into scalping the market in December 2022. It was mot my idea, but I thought I could handle it. I started out great, but then the market reminded me why I left the lower timeframes. 2. I'm not holding my trades long enough. Thanks Prop Firms! Since joining a prop firm my mind has been changed to holding trades for less time than I normally would. I don't mind holding trades for weeks or months, but prop firms give you time limits during evaluation periods. That was and still is a huge adjustment for me. Being a swing trader means I have to let my profits run. So, now, I've found a prop firm that will allow me to hold my trades with no time limits. 3. Not holding trades to my weekly and monthly targets. I need to see past my daily targets. Normally my daily risk to rewards are between 1:1 and 1:2. I'm in drawdown because I'm not recovering from my losses with these risk to rewards. So now, I'm only taking trades with RR over 1:2 and better. This way I'm trading less, holding longer(sometimes), and getting the best bank for my buck. Backtesting helped me see my mistakes and how to correct them. This is called fixing your strategy. Notice how I'm not changing my strategy. I'm tweaking my strategy to fit my mental capacity and trading style. If you find you're in a drawdown and can't see, stop trading and backtest what you're currently doing and find a way to stop the behavior thats causing your drawdown. Then, stop doing that particular thing so you can see better results. I pray this has helped you. Let me know your key takeaway by commenting below.
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Education
45
Learn Risk-Reward Ratio | Risk Management For Beginners 📚The risk-reward ratio (or risk return ratio) measures how much your potential reward (or return) is, for every dollar you risk. 📚For example: If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:3, it means you’re risking $1 to potentially make $3. If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:5, it means you’re risking $1 to potentially make $5. You get my point. ⚠️Now, here’s the biggest lie you’ve been told about the risk reward ratio: “You need a minimum of 1:2 risk reward ratio.” This statement is incorrect! Because the risk-reward ratio is meaningless on its own. 📚Here’s an example: Let’s say you have a risk reward ratio of 1:2 (for every trade you win, you make $2). But, your winning rate is 20%. So out of 10 trades, you have 8 losing trades and 2 winners. Let’s do the math… Total Loss = $1 * 8 = -$8 Total Gain = $2 * 2 = $4 Net loss = -$4 By now I hope you understand the risk reward ratio by itself is a meaningless metric. Instead, you must combine your risk-reward ratio with your winning rate to know whether you’ll make money in the long run (otherwise known as your expectancy). 📍THEREFORE: The key to success is the combination of the RR and Win Rate in such a fashion that yields a positive return. 📙Example: 🔘If your RR is 1:1 then you start making money with 51% win rate and above. 🔘If your RR is 1:1,5 then you start making money with 41% Win rate and above. 🔘If your RR is 1:2 then you start making money with 34% win rate and above. 🔴The higher the RR the lower is the breakeven Win Rate! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Education
5
Are NFT Marketplaces a trend today? Which assets to choose? The anticipated release of $BLUR could force traders to reevaluate the NFT marketplace sector and create a wave of growth. In this article, we will gather the main assets from the NFT marketplace sector and compare their metrics and products. The major players in the sector, the two biggest players OpenSea and Blur have no token LooksRare ($LOOKS) Price: $0.3 ATH Price: $5.3 Market.cap: $145m ATH Market.cap: $757m FDMC: $308m Although $LOOKS is one of the largest companies in the sector, it is risky enough to buy the token. $LOOKS has a large number of stakers, some of whom bought and accumulated the token at lower prices The $LOOKS token has risen 131% in the last 3 months. SuperRare ($RARE) Price: $0.17 ATH price: $3.1 Market.cap: $56m ATH Market.cap: $317.8m FDMC: $170m One of the most popular niche marketplaces where unique art is traded, not collections. It is also interesting because it's listed on Binance, and Binance retail investors are willing to buy anything that's trending and can give profit. $RARE token is up 92% in the last 3 months X2Y2 ($X2Y2) Price: $0.21 ATH price: $3.2 Market.cap: $38.6m ATH Market.cap: $300m FDMC: $209m It is the largest volume marketplace after Blur and OpenSea, but its token is lower by all metrics than $LOOKS, for example. It can be considered as a potential alpha for narrative growth and one of the hidden gems along with $RARE. $X2Y2 is up almost 400% in the last 3 months. Rarible ($RARI) Price: $2.27 ATH price: $45 Market.cap: $867m ATH Market.cap: FDMC: $56m One of the oldest projects of the sector. It has the smallest metrics for today.. RARI token has risen 34% in the last 3 months A little bit about $BLUR The Blur project now is a direct competitor to OpenSea, whose capitalization was estimated at the market peak in 2021 at ~ $1b. The release of $BLUR with roughly the same performance for FDMC may prompt the rest of the market to review token prices for projects from the same segment and, even more interestingly, may prompt OpenSea to give up issuing shares and going public and move to prepare for a token issue so as not to lose its position in the market Conclusion This year may be a pivotal year for the entire NFT sector. The largest companies in the real sector have increased their presence in this market and almost all of them have their own initiatives for denser integration. The possible token rally of NFT marketplaces could be just the beginning of this trend Share your thoughts about NFT projects in a comments section, whether it worth trading/investing or not. Maybe you did some profit with it and you're ready to share your experience. Also check links and start trading with us! Thank you for reading!
Education
4
🧠 The Mind Of A Smart TraderTrading psychology is influenced by emotions like greed and fear, which can drive irrational behavior in markets. Greed causes excessive risk-taking and speculation, while fear causes traders to exit positions prematurely or avoid risk. Regret can also cause traders to violate discipline and make trades at peak prices, leading to losses. These emotions can be particularly prominent in bull or bear markets and can have a significant impact on market outcomes. Trading psychology is a crucial factor in determining success in trading securities. It includes aspects of an individual's character and behavior that affect their trading decisions. Discipline and risk-taking are critical components of trading psychology, as is the impact of emotions like fear, greed, hope, and regret. It can be as important as knowledge, experience, and skill in determining trading success. 🧠10 Trading mindset tips: 🔹 Stay informed: Stay updated with the latest market news, trends, and developments, as well as your preferred assets. 🔹 Create a trading plan: This should include a clear set of rules for entry, exit, and risk management. Stick to your plan. 🔹 Manage your emotions: Avoid making impulsive decisions, especially during volatile market conditions. Keep a clear head and stick to your plan. 🔹 Continuously educate yourself: Enhance your knowledge and skills by reading books, attending seminars, and practicing with demo accounts. 🔹 Diversify your portfolio: Spread your risk across different assets and markets to reduce your exposure to any one particular market. 🔹 Stay disciplined: Follow your plan and stick to your rules, even if your emotions are telling you otherwise. 🔹 Set realistic expectations: Be mindful of your limitations and don’t overreach. Accept small losses and focus on long-term success. 🔹 Stay focused: Avoid distractions and keep your mind on your trading activities. 🔹 Keep a trading journal: Record your trades, track your progress, and reflect on what you could have done differently. 🔹 Take breaks: Avoid overtrading, which can lead to burnout. Take time to recharge and come back fresh. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
2
🔥SECRET METHOD TO IDENTIFY LONG TERM TREND:VOLUME PROFILE+POC🚀🔥Hi, friends! Trend is the most important thing in trading, so you have to know how to identify it and be a successful trader. In this idea, I will explain to you the most easiest and useful method for trend identification. I know that you haven't heard about that. 📊 THE INSTRUMENTS WE USE TO IDENTIFY THE TREND: 🔥 Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) 🔥 Point of control or POC 🔥 Bitcoin monthly candles/bars. They help to identify the long-term trend without local noise ✅ IF YOU WANT TO UNDERSTAND IF THE BULL MARKET BEGINS AND CONTINUES, YOU NEED: 1. Use the Volume Profile. Just pick it at the left side of the TradingView chart at "Prediction and Measurement Tools". 2. Stretch the volume profile on a monthly candle/bar. 3. After this you will see the Point of Control (POC, red line) which shows you where the most liquidity is concentrated. 4. If the price continues to close above the POC each month, this means that we have a healthy bull market. 5*. If you see that the monthly candle is close below the POC, you need to be more careful with your trends. This can indicate about a trend change, but it happens at least 1 time in the middle of the bull market. Check the precious bull market. Thats work perfectly! 🚩 You can check if it rule works for the BEAR market and write it in the comments. 📊 WHY IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THE LONG TERM TREND I know that you guys know the most famous trading quote: "Trend is your friend." . Naive but very useful recommendation. The understanding of the long term trend helps you to reduce 50-70% of your losing trades and increase your winrate at least to 60-80%: 🔥 you can use only trend following strategy and make much more money (open only long trades on bull market or open only a short trades on bear market) 🔥 reduce the risk when opening a trade against the trend and cut the losses. 🚩 Additionally, if you buy crypto (BTC, ETH or other alts) on spot, you can use this method to buy and hold crypto till BTC not change the trend. This method helps you to make a huge profit. So friends, this 5 min educational idea helps you to grow your deposit much faster and don't get big losses during the trading. Traders, was it useful for you? I know I have is a lot of experienced traders. Write your most useful trading tips in the comments to help the newbies. 💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Education
3
1 Sentence that will RUIN you as a traderWhat if I told you, it can take one sentence to blow it as a trader. Say it once and you’ll set a ripple effect. Before you know it, you’ve given up and leave the trading journey with pure frustration… Wanna know what this one sentence is? “I’ll take the next trade”. Yep that’s it! When you have a winning trading strategy, with strict entry, risk and exit levels – you are no longer the boss. You are a worker. And your job is to follow your job description or risk losing your job. Think about it… The system works with or without you. And if you follow it, you’ll generate a stable and consistent income. So, it is not your place to decide which trades you feel you want to take or not. Think about your back and forward tested statistics. Do you think there’s a robot that says… “Mmm let’s skip that trade my feelings tell me it’ll be wrong.” No, it records each and every trade one the criteria lines up. Here are some ridiculous examples of where traders don’t take trades. “It’s my birthday and I don’t want to lose money”. “I have banked 5 winning trades and I feel the next trade will be a loser’. “I’m on a losing streak and I don’t feel like taking another loser”. “Oooh I’m not going to take a trade, Elon Musk just tweeted ‘stock trading is over rated'”. And I can go on and on… So why will that one sentence ruin you as a trader? Here it is again: “I’ll take the next trade”. Reason #1: You’ll keep looking for the perfect trade Not only will you choose the trades you take, but you’ll also lose the confidence in the trading system and yourself whenever the next trade lines up. Reason #2: You’ll do it again and again You’ll set a precedent for not following your trading setups in the future. Reason #3: You won’t be able to keep a strong track record You won’t be able to jot down your trades with accuracy in your trading journal. Reason #4: Your emotions will get the better of you You’ll start thinking that you know better and refuse to accept the inevitable losses that come with trading. Remember, nothing in life that is rewarding comes without some degree of risk. By taking every trade your strategy yields, you’ll get to the point where you’ll enter into a long-term state of certainty and confidence with your trading.
Education
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Funds and money in cryptoFunds and money in crypto First, let's determine why money are required for the project. Money . The first and most evident thought that occurs to mind. A startup exchanges a portion of its stock or tokens (often a soul) for digital evergreen paper. Is it feasible to grow your business without these funds? Certainly, you can, but why? When a team has operational cash flow, it can stop pursuing profits from day one and instead focus on developing a high-quality product that will bring a lot more profit for everyone in the long run. Expertise . Every big VC has a whole team of specialists that can assist a new or not-so-young startup with a variety of difficulties, including business model development, tokenomics, marketing, and cost reduction. Even if a developer is a talented coder, this does not guarantee that he or she can create a lucrative firm. Connections . The fact that funds invest in dozens of initiatives necessitates communication with hundreds of thousands of professionals worldwide. There may be an intriguing project in the investor's portfolio with which one might form a relationship or attract customers. Quality rating . When a cool fund invests in a firm, the rest of the market receives a signal to keep an eye on them. If stock experts who evaluate hundreds of companies every month opt to invest in the team, then the startup's concept and potential are rather strong. While this does not alter the fact that even market experts occasionally miss the mark. We have therefore determined why we require a financial investment and will proceed. The following important question is how much was invested in the project. It would appear that more is better. However, this is not always the case, at least not in our experience as bold speculators. When 100-200 million dollars are invested in a token, this indicates that the minimum FDV is already trying for a billion dollars, making it considerably more difficult for early investors to obtain Xs with sensible prices on the listing. Therefore, purchasing such enormous items at the beginning of the market is a mediocre idea, however participation in their activities is an excellent idea. On the other hand, if they invest too little ($100-$300k), this may indicate that they don't trust much in the progress just yet; other funds invested three kopecks just in case. With this alternative, however, there is a substantial potential for X, as was the case with My Neighbor Alice, who, after privately accumulating two lyams, moved to binance and made their early investors and players wealthy. I should emphasize, however, that this is a relatively unusual occurrence, which occurred owing to the bull market's enthusiasm. Ideally, we are interested in anything that falls between the preceding two criteria. A $5-$20k investment gives ample room for X's on the listing, and is sufficient to form a really cool team and develop the product.
Education
Probability theory for trading signalsThere is a standard mathematical task. Let’s assume that six guns fired simultaneously at one target. The probability of hitting one target with one shot from one gun is 0.35 (35%); for the rest of the guns separately, the probability of hitting the target is also 0.35 (35%). We need to find the probability of at least one hit in one salvo from all guns. I believe that solution of this task can be used to find the correct moment for buy or sell signals. Let's say we have six indicators of different natures (stochastic, trend, chart pattern, volume profile, Fibonacci levels, candlestick patterns etc.) and each indicator has a relatively low win rate %, let's assume conservatively, that each indicator has 35% of win rate. If all indicators simultaneously show a buy signal, then the probability that at least one signal will be correct is calculated as follows: The probability that each signal separately is true: p1 = 35%, p2 = 35%, p3 = 35%, p4 = 35%, p5 = 35%, p6 = 35% The probability that each signal separately is false: q1 = 65%, q2 = 65%, q3 = 65%, q4 = 65%, q5 = 65%, q6 = 65% The probability that all signals will be false at the same time: P_(A) = q1 x q2 x q3 x q4 x q5 x q6 = 8% The probability that at least one signal will be true: P(A) = 1 - P_(A) = 1 – 0,08 = 0,92 (92%) So, we just confirmed obvious thing that if many indicators show the same signal simultaneously that we have higher chance to win as compared with signal of only one technical indicator. But you must be careful. - This methodology doesn’t work good in a flat market - Big players can easily steal your stop-losses because they also see these cumulative signals. - Close to 90% win-rate is not 100% win-rate, thus risk management is a must anyway - this method is quite heavy due to big volume of manual work. Important note: in order to avoid receiving too optimistic results, it’s necessary to use different types of indicators by their nature. Don’t use, for example three stochastics and five trend indicators. Correct example of indicators: 1 Fibonacci levels, 1 stochastics, 1 candlestick pattern, 1 chart pattern, 1 volume profile, 1 trend indicator. Anyway, I just made a test of this methodology for Crypto, Equity and Forex and the win-rate was about 80-90% with 80% profit after three weeks, I think that it really works.
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Leading Indicators To Improve Decision Making in Oil TradingHello Traders! As you know, trading is a game of probabilities and navigating the financial markets is not always easy. Different strategies that we use, such as Elliott wave analysis and pattern trading, can provide different scenarios for market movements. However, market conditions are often uncertain and can extend beyond what is predicted by these strategies. In such cases, it is useful to have access to scientifically proven tools that can help us better assess the probabilities of different scenarios. One such tool is the use of leading indicators. In this educational idea, we will explore the use of a leading indicator for Wti prices that embodies information from futures term spread and Relative Inventories. Correlation with Relative Inventories is due to the basic supply and demand dynamics of the market. When inventories are high, there is an oversupply of oil which puts downward pressure on prices. Conversely, when inventories are low, there is a shortage of oil which puts upward pressure on prices. Another useful metric for predicting oil prices is the term spread. The term spread refers to the difference between the prices of two oil contracts with different delivery dates. Researchers have found that changes in the term spread can be a leading indicator of future prices. The relationship between the term spread and oil prices comes from the fact that the term spread reflects changes in market expectations about future supply and demand for oil. Studies have confirmed the predictive power of both relative inventories and the term spread. Starting in a seminar paper by Hamilton (1983), it was demonstrated that changes in inventories had a significant impact on future oil prices. Similarly, other research has shown that changes in the term spread have a strong correlation with future oil price movements (e.g., Kilian and Murphy, 2009), and now there are a vastity of academic paper that explores that correlations and the predictive possibilities. Here another couple of references: www.sciencedirect.com gupea.ub.gu.se Now, I want to bring you an example of how these empirical result can be exploited and used in trading. In the main chart indeed I show an indicator constructed to reproduce the forecasting model proposed in the last article that I linked (Larsson, 2018). This Forecasting Model is a time series ARIMA model that uses both relative inventories and term spread between 3-months ahead contract and the 40-months ahead contract, together with squared relative inventories to capture non linearities in the relation between inventories and wti price. You can see the forecasted model in the red line, while the blue line is the weekly oil closing price. I will report again here the chart for clarity: After the uptrend ended, in which the forecasting model overshooted before crossing back, we can see that every time the red line (forecasting model) retested the blue line (actual price) the retest was followed by a strong decrease in price. This was use for us as confirmation for our bearish scenario on oil, that we are still trading. I hope you can find this post useful! If you have any comment, please share, we will be happy! Cheers, GMR
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Microsoft -> All Timeframes Are BullishHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . Microsoft is looking extremely juicy right now. From a weekly perspective we just created a long term double bottom and we also broke above a long term downtrend line. There is definitely the possibility that after a short term pullback, we will start the next bullrun from here, creating new all-time-highs in the process. From a daily perspective I am just waiting for a short term retest of the weekly neckline of the double bottom and then there is a very high chance that we will also see the daily continuation to the upside from here. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
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What I've learned after backtesting So, I love backtesting. Recently I've found my self in a 3% drawdown and needed to figure out what the cause of it was and trading at this moment won't give me that answer. So, I decided to backtest. Here is what I found: 1. I'm overtrading my system I am a proud swing trader who got back into scalping the market in December 2022. It was mot my idea, but I thought I could handle it. I started out great, but then the market reminded me why I left the lower timeframes. 2. I'm not holding my trades long enough. Thanks Prop Firms! Since joining a prop firm my mind has been changed to holding trades for less time than I normally would. I don't mind holding trades for weeks or months, but prop firms give you time limits during evaluation periods. That was and still is a huge adjustment for me. Being a swing trader means I have to let my profits run. So, now, I've found a prop firm that will allow me to hold my trades with no time limits. 3. Not holding trades to my weekly and monthly targets. I need to see past my daily targets. Normally my daily risk to rewards are between 1:1 and 1:2. I'm in drawdown because I'm not recovering from my losses with these risk to rewards. So now, I'm only taking trades with RR over 1:2 and better. This way I'm trading less, holding longer(sometimes), and getting the best bank for my buck. Backtesting helped me see my mistakes and how to correct them. This is called fixing your strategy. Notice how I'm not changing my strategy. I'm tweaking my strategy to fit my mental capacity and trading style. If you find you're in a drawdown and can't see, stop trading and backtest what you're currently doing and find a way to stop the behavior thats causing your drawdown. Then, stop doing that particular thing so you can see better results. I pray this has helped you. Let me know your key takeaway by commenting below.
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SHIU - This ALTSEASON: Meet SHIRTUM 💰⚽💰Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Shirtum / SHIUUSDT is a fairly new token that poses a great opportunity. Currently trading in an ideal accumulation zone; a previous fractal shows the potential for a near +300% increase from this point. Don't sleep on this altcoin, but remember to pre set your orders as this alt seems prone to pumping and dumping, which can be seen by the excessive wicking. Since you're here 👀 Here's my current outlook on Bitcoin: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
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