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Editors' picks

Trends could allow some further upward movementI'm really mixed going into today. I'm going to be a bit bullish, only because I think there is a lot of upward trend movement. However, we are maxed out on trends yet again here, so I am not sure we make it much higher, and I think this rally may be coming to a close, at least briefly. The trends for today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 4005 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 4041 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 4082 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 4093 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Overall, as I say in the video, I'd like to see us shoot up to that 4hr uptrending line, and I would short the market again, especially as it meets a downtrending line of all price action for the year. If we go lower from here, I'll have to decide where I want to enter at if things show significant weakness. Economic Data - We have Unemployment here shortly and payroll numbers. Both should cause some market shock, so sit back and enjoy the ride. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Slightly Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral
Editors' picks
9
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. At their NOV policy decision, the BoE’s updated projections showed a deeper and longer recession than previously thought, as well as a stern push back against current market pricing for the high implied rate path. However, rate markets did not respond to this with only marginal downside in terminal rate expectations. With the new budget now out of the way, the markets should turn their attention to what this means for the economic outlook and means economic data & BoE policy should start to matter a bit more again. Unfortunately, the week ahead is extremely light so the main driver will probably be overall risk sentiment. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. Any overly positive takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a positive for Sterling. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. Any overly negative takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a negative for Sterling. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish with the UK already in a recession based on recent data. At least the new PM has provided some calm to the fiscal situation and political uncertainty though. Expectations are for a lot of pain ahead for the UK economy which means the fundamental outlook remains bearish . But with a lot of bad news priced, we’re looking for shortterm upside opportunities. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, we have a few of important data points such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP on Friday. However, also pay close attention to the scheduled speech from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. The speech from Fed Chair Powell will be important. If he delivers the same stern hawkish tone that accompanied the prior FOMC presser, it can provide upside for the USD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
Editors' picks
15
The ECB's strong message, dovish FED, and a high alertYesterday, Bitcoin broke above the 17 000$ price tag in spite of a strong message coming out of the European Central Bank (ECB). The official Twitter account of the ECB tweeted that the price of Bitcoin is artificially held up (at the moment) and that soon it will embark on a journey to irrelevance. This is an unusual statement from the European officials, leaving us only to speculate about the workings behind the veil. Therefore, this message puts us on high alert. The actual message from the official Twitter account of ECB: "The apparent stabilisation of bitcoin’s value is likely to be an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto-asset embarks on a road to irrelevance. #TheECBblog looks at where bitcoin stands amid widespread volatility in the crypto markets." Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Jerome Powell said during his speech that as soon as in December 2022, the pace of rate hikes might slow down. Despite this being nothing new, the market sought a pivot in Powell’s statements and rose across the board. However, the market discounts the fact that interest rates are here to stay for much longer than initially thought. Additionally, the market participants seem to ignore that rate hikes will continue to increase, putting more pressure on debt servicing and the overall economy. As a result, we expect the bear market to continue to unravel and drag prices of cryptocurrencies and stocks much lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages in a bearish constellation. The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement above the 20-day SMA, which often coincides with corrections and is bullish for the short term. Now, the 20-day SMA acts as a support level; meanwhile, the 50-day SMA acts as a resistance level. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
76
#BTC is getting ready for the Big move!!Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. Let’s get to the chart! I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart, Do not consider financial advice. #BTC UPDATE BTC is forming this big falling wedge pattern what is falling wedge pattern The falling wedge is a bullish pattern. Together with the rising wedge formation, these two create a powerful pattern that signals a change in the trend direction. In general, a falling wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal pattern, although there are examples when it facilitates a continuation of the same trend. *BTC Need to Clear the 18,500 Resistance to Confirm the Falling Wedge Breakout * RSI is also sowing some bullish divergences move *If it conform this pattern then according to the pattern we will see good bounce Stay tuned I will keep updating This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
Editors' picks
69
Another Inverted Yield Curve with Even More Predictive PowerThe Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke again today at a Brookings Institution event. His comments sparked a rally in markets (likely including short covering) that pushed the S&P 500 SP:SPX up about 122 points, or 3.10%, to close at 4080. The Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX rose 4.58% on the day, closing at 12,030. But the bond market is sending less sanguine signals. The 10Y/3M yield curve inverted further today. Its inversion is currently the deepest since the slightly deeper inversion of this segment of the yield curve in 2000-2001 inversion, which had presaged the 2-year bear market from 2000-2002. The 10Y/3M curve has been researched more than the more widely known 10Y/2Y curve (also known as the 10s/2s). Experts say inversions of the 10Y/3M serve as better predictors of recession than the 10Y/2Y curve. The yield curve has remained inverted for over a month now. This qualifies as a "persistent inversion" that creates a recession signal. But the recession does not always follow immediately. According to Jim Bianco of Bianco Research LLC, "The average lead time" until the recession arises "is 311 days, or about 10 months." What does this offer for traders then? On days when equity markets are rallying like there is no tomorrow, it tells us that markets are not out of the woods despite the buying frenzy. It means that a recession is more probable than not in the next year. But it doesn't tell us much about where prices are headed in the near term (technical analysis of price itself works better for this purpose). Just because a recession will likely begin in the coming weeks or months does not necessitate that equity markets plummet in a straight line to the ideal target. Many, including this author, wishes it could be as straightforward and predictable. So traders should also keep in mind that inverted curves are not a trading signal. They are part of the broader economic and rate-policy context within which equity markets operate. It helps me to know that markets are not likely to resume a long-term uptrend until the recession has ended. The bond market tends to sniff out the problems in the economy long before other markets. And equity markets can ride on hope and desperation for much longer than anyone expects—just as this unexpected bear rally carried SPX price from the October 13, 2022 low all the way back above the 200-day MA today and higher to close at 4080.11. Below is a chart of the 10Y/2Y yield curve, which is also inverted. Supplementary Chart A: To compare the current 10Y/2Y inversion with some historic inversions, consider reading this prior post from July 2022 on the 2s / 10s yield curve inversion, and be sure to hit the refresh button to see the most recent months of data. The Wall Street Journal Confirmed in recent days, by the way, that the 2s / 10s curve Supplementary Chart B: Finally, on a monthly chart, one can easily see that the 2s / 10s curve inversion is the deepest one on record—at least as far back as the chart allows. Hat tip to @SPY_Master for pointing this record-breaking inversion recently. Supplementary Chart C:
Editors' picks
37
🟨 Ned Davis - 3 Day Price Thrust The market triggered last week the Ned Davis 3 Day Price Thrust Trigger Indicator - indicator available in my profile. The Thrusts occur when the S&P 500 rises at least 1.5% for one day, at least 1.15% for a second day, and at least 1.5% on the third day. The record since 1970 is perfect one year later. However, the prior18 cases, ending in 1938, only show 11 out of 18 profitable one year later. We have backtested this for you and show you the result. Bare in mind that the FED is speaking this week, which always brings extra volatility.
Editors' picks
Long
20
GEO: Michael Burry bought more GEO Michael Burry has bought more shares of this REIT so I thought I'd give a look at the chart for those who want to follow him. What the chart is saying: Big downtrend since May 2017. In May 2021, the stock has started a consolidation/base in form of a range between 5.5 and 9.54. This range could be a bottom formation. Note that bottoming pattern takes time and this one could continue for a few more weeks/months. However a break out of the range (9.54) could confirm a change of trend and a long trade/investment. Keep monitoring this stock in the next few days/weeks, set an alert at the top of the range. If it breaks out of the range, the first potential targets are 11, 13.90 and 17. I remain neutral for now. On watch.
Editors' picks
11
Is it better to trade large-cap or small-cap cryptocurrencies? When it comes to trading cryptocurrencies, many traders can be confused about which asset to trade. There are thousands of cryptocurrency projects on the market, of varying market capitalisation and utility. It is the latter quality that I want to focus on in this article as the size of the cryptocurrency can significantly affect the volatility and trading conditions of the asset. In crypto, market capitalization is the value you get when you multiply the unit price of a token or coin by the total number of such tokens in circulation. It is a measure of how big a digital asset is. Although the terms ‘large’ and ‘small’ are quantitatively ambiguous, a general rule is that a large-cap cryptocurrency has a market cap of more than $10 billion, while a low cap has less than this value. Going by this rule, at the time of writing, examples of large-cap cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Tether (USDT), Binance coin (BNB), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA). Examples of low-cap assets are far more plentiful than large-cap assets. In fact, most outside of the largest 50 projects are valued at under $1 billion. Large-cap cryptocurrencies are typically considered less volatile than small-cap cryptocurrencies, because of the larger trading volume and larger number of market participants that they attract. However, be aware, this can lure traders into a false sense of security, because extreme volatility can appear in the charts of any cryptocurrency regardless of their market capitalisation. This is due to the immaturity and interconnectedness of the sector. Even so, small-cap cryptocurrencies have a higher volatility potential due to the lower trade volume that occurs with these assets, and thus, they generally have wider spreads. Traders of small-cap cryptocurrencies look to overcome the wider spreads by taking advantage of the larger price moves that can be inherent in these volatile assets. All the while, because small-cap assets attract less retail and media attention, market moving news reports can be few and far between, meaning that the driving factors of price action in small-cap assets can be mysterious at times. Before choosing whether to trade large-cap or small-cap cryptocurrencies you should understand how your trading strategy applies to the characteristics of each asset and what you want to achieve.
Editors' picks
10
AUD/USD storms higherThe Australian dollar has rebounded on Tuesday after a poor start to the week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6737, up 1.28%. What goes down ... can go right back up. This has been the story early this week for the Australian dollar, which tumbled 1.5% on Monday but has recovered most of those losses today. The Australian dollar was hit hard after a weak retail sales report and widespread unrest in China over the country's zero-covid policy. The unrest in China has put a damper on risk appetite, as the result is likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions and dampen domestic spending. Investors may have sensed an opportunity for profit-taking after the massive slide on Monday, which would help explain the rebound today. The Fed doesn't hold a policy meeting for another two weeks, but the Fedspeak blitz, which started after the soft US inflation report sent the markets in a tizzy, continued in earnest on Monday. Fed member Bullard said on Monday the markets could be underestimating the likelihood of higher rates and that the Fed funds rate will have to reach the bottom end of the 5%-7% range in order to curb inflation, which has been more persistent than anticipated. Fed member Williams added that the Fed needed to do more work to tame inflation, which is "far too high". Fed member Brainard, a dove, expressed concern about inflation expectations rising above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed has been aggressive in telegraphing the markets that its rate cycle is far from over, a message we're likely to continue to hear in the coming weeks. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6707. The next resistance line is 0.6829 There is support at 0.6633 and 0.6511
Editors' picks
8
EUR trader - a playbook for trading the EU CPI printEURUSD was on fire through EU trade stopping just shy of 1.0500 – talk of month-end flows predictably doing the rounds, but then it’s been all USD buyers taking us into session lows. The wash-up is an ominous set-up on the EURUSD daily, with a big rejection candle coming off a major supply zone and resistance above 1.0400 – we’ve even seen EUR sellers in US trade vs the AUD and NOK – so it puts emphasis on the view that we’d be seeing EUR month-end flows but these abated and traders faded EUR strength. The focus turns to EU CPI One of the key event risks this week and a big piece of the macro jigsaw will be the EU inflation data this week – it starts today with German regional CPI prints – notably the North Rhine CPI print is due at 17:30 AEDT (no consensus), and represents a decent chunk of German GDP – this will be followed by the German national CPI print at 00:00 AEDT, where the market expects inflation to remain unchanged at 10.4%, although falling modestly to 11.3% (from 11.6%) on EU harmonized basis. Following the German CPI print, we see France’s CPI out tomorrow at 18:45 AEDT (consensus 6.1% from 6.2%), before culminating in the Eurozone aggregate CPI inflation print at 21:00 AEDT – The consensus here is for headline inflation to drop from 10.6% to 10.4% - not a huge fall, but it would represent the first decline in EU CPI since August 2020. We can also study the form guide and see that EU CPI has come out topside of analysts’ consensus expectations in each of the past 19 EU CPI reports (although 3 have come in line). The significance of the CPI print is that it could go some way to shaping the outcome of the ECB meeting on 15 Dec – currently, we see the market pricing 60bp of hikes for the Dec ECB meeting which equates to a 40% chance of a 75bp hike – typically when we see a split like this, we can get rates volatility which spills over into increased FX movement. Using this pricing, a 50bp hike is still the base case, but that could be swayed if we don’t see the expected fall in price pressures. An overly simplistic playbook would suggest if EU CPI prints at 10.6%, and certainly above, then the odds of a 75bp hike from the ECB move above 50% and becomes the market's base case – in theory, a EUR positive vs the crosses. A CPI print below 10.2% should see 50bp become the strong default position. We can cast our minds back to last week and recall speeches from ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel, as well as ECB members Lane and Muller – Schnabel’s comments – effectively calling for a further 75bp hike - have been supportive of the current rates pricing and we’ve seen hawkish commentary from President Lagarde in today’s session – again, it emphasises this CPI data could go some way to influencing this rate debate. We should also consider that there are some positive factors humming way in Europe – or at least less bad – we’ve seen EU NG prices crater, where Europe seems to have LNG all over the shop - stabilisation in energy prices which should help European corporate profitability – while in contraction we’ve seen EU PMI’s come in above expectations, while German IFO survey and GDP have improved. There are some signs of positivity if you look hard enough and this helps EU asset work to the upside – China remains the big unknown and could impact EU assets, just as it could broader global risk sentiment. Trading the EU CPI print Playing the EU CPI print suggests taking a closer focus on the EU FX cross rates – the USD is just so sensitive to market sentiment and risk on/risk off dynamics – Long EURCAD has been a big trend play of late, and a big EU CPI print and I’d be focused on this cross, with EURCHF pushing back towards 0.9900. A weak print, which takes pricing firmly to 50bp, and EURJPY shorts would be where I would be looking and another test of the 11 Nov lows. Naturally, the GER40 and EU equity markets would find better buyers on a low CPI print as real household incomes increase and rate hikes are priced out – the equity bulls could use some additional fodder given price has been consolidating and is starting to look vulnerable for better shorting opportunities – no sell signal on a swing timeframe but watching closely.
Editors' picks
1

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Snaps

02 Dec

Reading the tea leaves

The only way you can predict the future, is to build it. There may be many things completely outside of our control, but if we put our minds to it – we can influence the course history takes. One person in particular who’s spending a lot of time pondering the future right now is the Fed’s Jerome Powell, who’s putting his mind towards lowering inflation and setting the economy on track for a better future. And recently, there’s been some tiny signs that it’s beginning to work.

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DXY
What the future holds

New economic data shows some signs that the beast that is inflation might be beginning to be tamed.

CRM
Salesforce spinning out

Salesforce might have beaten analyst expectations for its earnings, but other news had shares sliding down the charts.

AMC
Hold it right there

AMC and other memestocks were on the up yesterday, leaving investors wondering – could memestock mania be back?

LBCUSD
Regulated into oblivion

The death of LBRY after being declared a security by the SEC has crypto hoping it's a one-off. The bad news? It probably isn’t.

TOTALDEFI
Too cute to pass up

Pudgy Penguin NFTs have been flying off the shelves – perhaps there’s hope for the NFT market yet?

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USOIL H8: 20% Gains CORRECTION setup SHORT/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -2000+ ideas published -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -before/after analysis -24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! USOIL H8: 20% Gains CORRECTION setup SHORT/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: USOIL H8 chart review ::: chart is LOG SCALE ::: setup still valid expecting ::: 20% gains final TP BEARS ::: continuation setup strong DOWNTREND ::: sequence of lower highs in progress ::: cycle low for oil market at 60 USD/ bbl ::: BEARS maintain strategic control ::: 87.50 BEARS get ready to SHORT/HOLD ::: from overhead resistance / 3 drives ::: BEAR CYCLE not over yet ::: DO NOT BUY yet into BEAR MARKET ::: lower highs 96.50 // 91.50 // 87.50 ::: SHORT rips/rallies and get paid ::: 20% gains conservative TP BEARS ::: WAIT for rips/rallies and SHORT IT ::: recommend to SHORT/HOLD ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A fresh demand zone ::: N/A fresh supply zone 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BEARS / SUPER CYCLE RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
44
EURUSD - Massive 22% crash to 0.82! Lifetime opportunity! The EURUSD is going up right now, but it looks like a dead cat bounce rally. It was a nice short-term bull market! We need to focus on the main direction of the trend, which is bearish. I think EURUSD will go up to 1.06311, where there is an extremely strong resistance that should be a reversal point. This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to short EUR/USD!Follow my calls. As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we need a final impulse wave to the downside to complete a major impulse wave. Typically, wave 1 serves as strong resistance, which in this case is 1.06311. 1.06311 is a strong resistance because it is the 2020 COVID swing low + wave (1) + 0.382 FIB retracement (wave 3). You can take profit at the previous POC of the triangle from 2000–2002 (0.88691) or at the previous swing low from 2000 (0.82311). This is not a trade setup because there is no stop loss, expected duration, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post professional trade setups elsewhere. This is just an analysis. I am more than happy to provide you with these analyses, so if you like it, hit "Like" and "Follow"! Tell me in the comment section what you think about EURUSD. It looks like everyone is now extremely bullish, which is definitely not a good sign! The majority is usually wrong. Stay strong!
44
"First signals" that the markets are ready for growth, Why?👇Today we will consider the local situation on the BTCUSDT trading pair And we will offer you a trade that has every chance to work out over the weekend. Last week we published an idea with a possible BTCUSD price movement, it is still relevant, and we believe that it works perfectly During the week that is coming to an end, the BTC price slightly touched the purchase zone and buyers organized a rather aggressive buyback (in the context of the current passive market) Growth Bitcoin price for the week of +7% seems not a bad result, but it is much better that buyers managed to break the first portion of the short stops that were hiding above $17000 The next step is to hunt for the second portion of the short stops hiding in the marked zone above $18000 Today, there may be increased volatility in the market, because unemployment figures in the US are due to be released. It is expected that they will be an additional positive factor for growth in the markets in conjunction with the available data: DXY - the dollar index began to fall actively (and has prospects for further decline) This means that the value of the dollar is falling, and it needs to be invested in the economy, and in business. So that the value of monetary assets does not depreciate, but generates earnings. The last time such dynamics of the fall was in 2020-2021, and the crypto market at that time was experiencing a DeFi boom and the overall growth of most cryptocurrencies. S&P 500 - is steadily growing as a result of investing the dollar in the most powerful companies that are included in the SP 500 index Experts estimate the probability at 82% that the Fed rate on 13.12.2022 will increase by +0.50%, and not +0.75% as it was in previous months. Just three weeks ago, this probability was estimated at 60%, and this is already a positive trend Well, considering all the above facts, we consider it acceptable to try the trade on the following conditions: Entry $16661 Stop $15999 Take profit $18234 Have a nice weekend and profitable trading) _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Long
32
ADAUSDT $36c Likely on PhoenixAscendingHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Here's a short term overview on what we can expect for the price of Cardano for the immediate term. Technical indicator Phoenix Ascending together with Bollinger Bands point towards a potential $0.36c, as we see the RSI and EMA moving up with bullish buying momentum in the short term. IF the green EMA can cross over the 50 line, we can expect movement towards the basis of the bollinger bands, even if it is just a wick. The basis is the 20d moving average currently at $0.36. However, currently with all the bankruptcy happening in the crypto environment, the markets do not look favorable for a new bull cycle, so I expect a resistance zone here. The next immanent support zone is around 0.22c, where there is a high demand zone and this is where I expect a bottom for ADAUSDT to be found. Curious about what Decembers hold for Bitcoin historically? Check out this idea: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
24
USDJPY > Selling Dollars Is the New Game Now!!Analysis of #USDJPY Hi traders, today we will have a look at #USDJPY The USDJPY is unwinding the move up from this year and we can expect the DXY to continue down, the game now is selling dollars before others lol. I am now looking for as well 137.00 because we have trend line resistance lining up with previous structure support no becomes resistant level and FIB 61 golden level. I don't believe we could see this entry coming in because there is big money involved in this market and when they start dumping they don't stop or give you a chance to get in, but as you know we have NFP news today and anything can happen. I hope you guys found this helpful, if you are new here click on follow, to get these ideas delivered straight to your email inbox, I will see you guys at the next one Thanks for your continued support!
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RLinda ! GOLD-> Is it worth waiting for a pullback? Gold has gained $188, or almost 12%, since the beginning of November. The price is tending to the resistance 1807 and also possibly to 1822 (Fibo 2.618), behind which there is a huge amount of liquidity. The energy of the strong growth continues to deplete and I expect a pullback in the near future. The trend is ascending, but at the same time the price is approaching the resistance zone. The pullback will be expected either from 1807 or from 1822. The purpose of the pullback will be the support of 1786 and 1765. Regards R.Linda!
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GOLD:BUY From Accumulation Pattern Waiting For US News LONG Same vision today for the GOLD that, like the EUR/USD still in a solid bullish rally. Yesterday the price reached our target and today the value of the Gold, as for the EUR/USD it's inside an accumulation pattern waiting for the US release of economic news. If you are reading my post about USD/JPY where I explain my Daily Market Analysis you will know that the uncertain condition of the US economy today can impact the markets correlated with USD in a negative view. That's our point of view in general. We are looking for a new Bullish impulse here.
Long
21
BITCOIN Log Growth Curve the only pattern that matters right nowOn this chart we seen Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on its historic Logarithmic Channel (LC), the channel that has been trading in since its inception and will put emphasis on its Growth Curve which is the pattern we popularized here since early 2019. See how well the model has been containing the price action going more than 3 years back: Back to today now. As you see on this chart, which as we mention is the only chart you should care about right now, Bitcoin following the FTX crash hit the bottom of its Logarithmic Channel (LG), displayed by the green line, which historically has proven to be the ultimate buy level, with strong rallies following shortly after. Since then it has been trading on the green line, which we call the Growth Curve (GC), showing the first signs of a new, and most likely the final, accumulation phase. As long as it stays within the GC and the dotted line above, BTC will continue to accumulate. Above that, the first historic Resistance in an upcoming Bull Cycle is the Blue line, which kept the price at bay for most of the 2012 and 2015/16 Cycles, before the parabolic rally that capped the Bull Cycle. The yellow line is a typical pivot line during both Bull and Bear Cycles, as you see it held the first waves of the 2021/22 Bear Cycle before eventually failing. The orange line, is the level where investors typically look to sell and exit the Bull Cycle, while the zone formed by the upper dotted line and the red one has historically been an absolute (extremely overbought) belt. Right now the price is on the absolute bottom of this model that has never failed while having the Multiple 8 (grey trend-line) just below it, which also has never been broken and marked the bottoms of March 2020, August 2015 and November 2011. Are you a buyer or a seller based on this? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
11
Euro can retest the resistance line and start to declineHello to the TradingView community and my followers, please, if you like ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments, thank you so much and we'll get started. Today, I want to talk to you about the EUR/USD chart. On the chart, we can see how the price formed an upward channel and is now trading near the resistance line. I think price can rise to the resistance line, then bounce back and start falling. I expect the price can go up a little bit to retest the resistance line and can fall to the support line. Therefore, I set a goal for Euro, at level 1.0320 which coincide with the support line. This is my opinion, I really hope it will be useful for you.
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Pine scripts

Smart Money Concepts [LUX]This all-in-one indicator displays real-time market structure (internal & swing BOS / CHoCH), order blocks, premium & discount zones, equal highs & lows, and much more...allowing traders to automatically mark up their charts with widely used price action methodologies. Following the release of our Fair Value Gap script, we received numerous requests from our community to release more features in the same category. "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) is a fairly new yet widely used term amongst price action traders looking to more accurately navigate liquidity & find more optimal points of interest in the market. Trying to determine where institutional market participants have orders placed (buy or sell side liquidity) can be a very reasonable approach to finding more practical entries & exits based on price action. The indicator includes alerts for the presence of swing structures and many other relevant conditions. Features This indicator includes many features relevant to SMC, these are highlighted below: Full internal & swing market structure labeling in real-time Break of Structure (BOS) Change of Character (CHoCH) Order Blocks (bullish & bearish) Equal Highs & Lows Fair Value Gap Detection Previous Highs & Lows Premium & Discount Zones as a range Options to style the indicator to more easily display these concepts Settings Mode: Allows the user to select Historical (default) or Present, which displays only recent data on the chart. Style: Allows the user to select different styling for the entire indicator between Colored (default) and Monochrome. Color Candles: Plots candles based on the internal & swing structures from within the indicator on the chart. Internal Structure: Displays the internal structure labels & dashed lines to represent them. (BOS & CHoCH). Confluence Filter: Filter non-significant internal structure breakouts. Swing Structure: Displays the swing structure labels & solid lines on the chart (larger BOS & CHoCH labels). Swing Points: Displays swing points labels on chart such as HH, HL, LH, LL. Internal Order Blocks: Enables Internal Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Internal Order Blocks appear on the chart. Swing Order Blocks: Enables Swing Order Blocks & allows the user to select how many most recent Swing Order Blocks appear on the chart. Equal Highs & Lows: Displays EQH/EQL labels on chart for detecting equal highs & lows. Bars Confirmation: Allows the user to select how many bars are needed to confirm an EQH/EQL symbol on chart. Fair Value Gaps: Displays boxes to highlight imbalance areas on the chart. Auto Threshold: Filter out non-significant fair value gaps. Timeframe: Allows the user to select the timeframe for the Fair Value Gap detection. Extend FVG: Allows the user to choose how many bars to extend the Fair Value Gap boxes on the chart. Highs & Lows MTF: Allows the user to display previous highs & lows from daily, weekly, & monthly timeframes as significant levels. Premium/Discount Zones: Allows the user to display Premium, Discount, and Equilibrium zones on the chart Usage Users can see automatic CHoCH and BOS labels to highlight breakouts of market structure, which allows to determine the market trend. In the chart below we can see the internal structure which displays more frequent labels within larger structures. We can also see equal highs & lows (EQH/EQL) labels plotted alongside the internal structure to frequently give indications of potential reversals. In the chart below we can see the swing market structure labels. These are also labeled as BOS and CHoCH but with a solid line & larger text to show larger market structure breakouts & trend reversals. Users can be mindful of these larger structure labels while trading internal structures as displayed in the previous chart. Order blocks highlight areas where institutional market participants open positions, one can use order blocks to determine confirmation entries or potential targets as we can expect there is a large amount of liquidity at these order blocks. In the chart below we can see 2 potential trade setups with confirmation entries. The path outlined in red would be a potential short entry targeting the blue order block below, and the path outlined in green would be a potential long entry, targeting the red order blocks above. As we can see in the chart below, the bullish confirmation entry played out in this scenario with the green path outlined in hindsight. As price breaks though the order blocks above, the indicator will consider them mitigated causing them to disappear, and as per the logic of these order blocks they will always display 5 (by default) on the chart so we can now see more actionable levels. The Smart Money Concepts indicator has many other features and here we can see how they can also help a user find potential levels for price action trading. In the screenshot below we can see a trade setup using the Previous Monthly High, Strong High, and a Swing Order Block as a stop loss. Accompanied by the Premium from the Discount/Premium zones feature being used as a potential entry. A potential take profit level for this trade setup that a user could easily identify would be the 50% mark labeled with the Fair Value Gap & the Equilibrium all displayed automatically by the indicator. Conclusion This indicator highlights all relevant components of Smart Money Concepts which can be a very useful interpretation of market structure, liquidity, & more simply put, price action. The term was coined & popularized primarily within the forex community & by ICT while making its way to become a part of many traders' analysis. These concepts, with or without this indicator do not guarantee a trader to be trading within the presence of institutional or "bank-level" liquidity, there is no supporting data regarding the validity of these teachings.
Pine Script™ indicator
266
Market sessions and Volume profile - By LeviathanThis script allows you to keep track of Forex market sessions (Tokyo, London and New York), as well as Daily, Weekly and Monthly sessions. All of them are accompanied by Volume Profile options where you can view VP Histogram, Point of Control, Value Area High and Value Area Low. Colors, lines and other design preferences are fully customizable. * Volume Profile of shorter sessions (eg. Tokyo, London, New York) works better when using lower timeframes such as 15min, 5min, etc. ** Use timeframe higher than 15min when viewing Monthly sessions Indicator settings overview: SESSION TYPE - Tokyo session (1:00 - 9:00 UTC/ GMT ) - London session (7:00 - 16:00 UTC/ GMT ) - New York session (13:00 - 22:00 UTC/ GMT ) - Daily session - Weekly session - Monthly session DISPLAY - Show Volume Profile (Show or hide Volume Profile histogram) - Show POC (Show or hide Point Of Control line) - Show VAL (Show or hide Value Area Low line) - Show VAH (Show or hide Value Area High line) - Show Live Zone (Show or hide the ongoing session) VOLUME PROFILE SETTINGS - Resolution (The higher the value, the more refined of a profile, but less profiles are shown on the chart) - Smooth Volume Data (Useful for assets that have very large spikes in volume over large bars, helps create better profiles) APPEARANCE - Up Volume color (Pick a custom color for up/ bullish volume profile nodes) - Down Volume color (Pick a custom color for down/ bearish volume profile nodes) - POC color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Point Of Control line) - VAH color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Value Area High line) - VAL color and thickness (Pick a custom color and thickness for Value Area Low line) - Session box thickness (Pick a custom thickness for the session box. Color is provided automatically with optimal contrast) ** Some VP elements are inspired by @LonesomeTheBlue's volume profile script
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Pine Script™ indicator
40
Volume Profile Volume Delta OI Delta [Kioseff Trading]Hello! This script serves to distinguish volume delta for any asset and open interest delta for Binance perpetual futures. The image above provides further explanation of functionality and color correspondence. The image above shows the indicator calculating volume at each tick level and displaying the metric. The label color outline (neon effect) is configurable; the image above is absent the feature. The image above shows Open Interest (OI) Delta calculated - similar to how the script calculates volume delta - for a Binance Perpetual Future pair. This feature only works for Binance Futures pairs; the script will not load when trying to calculate OI Delta on other assets. Additionally, a heatmap is displayable should you configure the indicator to calculate it. The image above shows a heatmap using volume delta calculations. The image above shows a heatmap using OI delta calculations. Of course, these calculations - when absent requisite data - require some assumptions to better replicate calculations with access to requisite data. The indicator assumes a 60/40 split when a tick level is traded at and only one metric - "buy volume" or "sell volume" is recorded. This means there shouldn't be any levels recorded where "buy volume" is greater than 0 and "sell volume" equals 0 and vice versa. While this assumption was performed arbitrarily, it may help better replicate volume delta and OI delta calculations seen on other charting platforms. This option is configurable; you can select to have the script not assume a 60/40 split and instead record volume "as is" at the corresponding tick level. The script also divides volume and open interest if a one-minute bar violates multiple tick levels. The volume or open interest generated on the one-minute bar will be divided by the number of tick levels it exceeds. The results are, subsequently, appended to the violated tick levels. Further, the script can be set to recalculate after a user-defined time threshold is exceeded. You can also define the percentage or tick distance between levels. Also, it'd be great if this indicator can nicely replicate volume delta indicators on other charting platforms. If you've any ideas on how price action can be used to better assume volume at the corresponding price area please let me know! Thank you (:
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
51
Next Pivot Projection [Trendoscope]Still experimental. Extending further on the divergence backtest results - in this script we try to project next 2 pivots (including one unconfirmed pivot) 🎲 Previous experiments 1. Divergence-Backtester 2. Divergence-Backtester-V2 🎲 Additions Apart from collecting the stats on number of occurrences of HH, HL, LH, LL - this script also keeps track of average ratio for each levels and average bars. Based on these data, we try to calculate the next pivot projections including possible bar and price. Cloud covering the candles indicate historical levels of average HH, HL, LH, LL projections. Hover on projection labels to find more details in tooltips. 🎲 Overall method in a nutshell 🎲 Going bit deeper 🎯 Unconfirmed Pivot and its projection - Last pivot of the zigzag is always unconfirmed. Meaning, it can potentially repaint based on further price movements. But, projection of the unconfirmed pivot will not change as it will be based on previous two pivots - both of which are confirmed. 🎯 Next Pivot Projection - Next pivot is projected based on last two pivots - which include last unconfirmed pivot. Hence, these projections can potentially repaint based on the last pivot repaint. 🎯 Historical projections displayed as cloud - Historical projection values are displayed as cloud around pivots. A cloud above represents area from average lower high range to average higher high range. Cloud color is green if average ratio of pivot high is more than 1. Red Otherwise. A cloud below represents area from average higher low range to average lower low range. Cloud color is red if average ratio of pivot high is more than 1. Green otherwise
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
57
Intrabar Efficiency Ratio█   OVERVIEW This indicator displays a directional variant of Perry​ Kaufman's​ Efficiency​ Ratio​, designed to gauge the "efficiency" of intrabar price movement by comparing the sum of movements of the lower timeframe bars composing a chart bar with the respective bar's movement on an average basis. █   CONCEPTS Efficiency Ratio (ER) Efficiency Ratio ​ was first introduced by Perry Kaufman in his 1995 book, titled "Smarter Trading". It is the ratio of absolute price change to the sum of absolute changes on each bar over a period. This tells us how strong the period's trend is relative to the underlying noise. Simply put, it's a measure of price movement efficiency. This ratio is the modulator utilized in Kaufman's​ Adaptive​ Moving​ Average​ (KAMA​), which is essentially an Exponential​ Moving​ Average​ (EMA​) that adapts its responsiveness to movement efficiency. ER's output is bounded between 0 and 1. A value of 0 indicates that the starting price equals the ending price for the period, which suggests that price movement was maximally inefficient. A value of 1 indicates that price had travelled no more than the distance between the starting price and the ending price for the period, which suggests that price movement was maximally efficient. A value between 0 and 1 indicates that price had travelled a distance greater than the distance between the starting price and the ending price for the period. In other words, some degree of noise was present which resulted in reduced efficiency over the period. As an example, let's say that the price of an asset had moved from $15 to $14 by the end of a period, but the sum of absolute changes for each bar of data was $4. ER would be calculated like so: ER = abs(14 - 15)/4 = 0.25 This suggests that the trend was only 25% efficient over the period, as the total distanced travelled by price was four times what was required to achieve the change over the period. Intrabars Intrabars are chart bars at a lower timeframe than the chart's. Each 1H chart bar of a 24x7 market will, for example, usually contain 60 intrabars at the ​LTF of 1min, provided there was market activity during each minute of the hour. Mining information from intrabars can be useful in that it offers traders visibility on the activity inside a chart bar. Lower timeframes (LTFs) A lower timeframe is a timeframe that is smaller than the chart's timeframe. This script determines which ​LTF to use by examining the chart's timeframe. The ​LTF determines how many intrabars are examined for each chart bar; the lower the timeframe, the more intrabars are analyzed, but fewer chart bars can display indicator information because there is a limit to the total number of intrabars that can be analyzed. Intrabar precision The precision of calculations increases with the number of intrabars analyzed for each chart bar. As there is a 100K limit to the number of intrabars that can be analyzed by a script, a trade-off occurs between the number of intrabars analyzed per chart bar and the chart bars for which calculations are possible. Intrabar Efficiency Ratio (IER) Intrabar Efficiency Ratio applies the concept of ER on an intrabar level. Rather than comparing the overall change to the sum of bar changes for the current chart's timeframe over a period, IER compares single bar changes for the current chart's timeframe to the sum of absolute intrabar changes, then applies smoothing to the result. This gives an indication of how efficient changes are on the current chart's timeframe for each bar of data relative to LTF​ bar changes on an average basis. Unlike the standard ER calculation, we've opted to preserve directional information by not taking the absolute value of overall change, thus allowing it to be utilized as a momentum oscillator. However, by taking the absolute value of this oscillator, it could potentially serve as a replacement for ER in the design of adaptive moving averages. Since this indicator preserves directional information, IER can be regarded as similar to the Chande​ Momentum​ Oscillator​ (CMO​) , which was presented in 1994 by Tushar​ Chande​ in "The New Technical Trader". Both CMO​ and ER​ essentially measure the same relationship between trend and noise. CMO simply differs in scale, and considers the direction of overall changes. █   FEATURES Display Three different display types are included within the script:  • Line : Displays the middle length MA of the IER as a line .   Color for this display can be customized via the "Line" portion of the "Visuals" section in the script settings.  • Candles : Displays the non-smooth IER and two moving averages of different lengths as candles .   The `open` and `close` of the candle are the longest and shortest length MAs of the IER respectively.   The `high` and `low` of the candle are the max and min of the IER, longest length MA of the IER, and shortest length MA of the IER respectively.   Colors for this display can be customized via the "Candles" portion of the "Visuals" section in the script settings.  • Circles : Displays three MAs of the IER as circles .   The color of each plot depends on the percent rank of the respective MA over the previous 100 bars.   Different colors are triggered when ranks are below 10%, between 10% and 50%, between 50% and 90%, and above 90%.   Colors for this display can be customized via the "Circles" portion of the "Visuals" section in the script settings. With either display type, an optional information box can be displayed. This box shows the LTF​ that the script is using, the average number of lower timeframe bars per chart bar, and the number of chart bars that contain LTF​ data. Specifying intrabar precision Ten options are included in the script to control the number of intrabars used per chart bar for calculations. The greater the number of intrabars per chart bar, the fewer chart bars can be analyzed. The first five options allow users to specify the approximate amount of chart bars to be covered:  • Least Precise (Most chart bars) : Covers all chart bars by dividing the current timeframe by four.   This ensures the highest level of intrabar precision while achieving complete coverage for the dataset.  • Less Precise (Some chart bars) & More Precise (Less chart bars) : These options calculate a stepped ​LTF in relation to the current chart's timeframe.  • Very precise (2min intrabars) : Uses the second highest quantity of intrabars possible with the 2min ​LTF.  • Most precise (1min intrabars) : Uses the maximum quantity of intrabars possible with the 1min ​LTF. The stepped lower timeframe for "Less Precise" and "More Precise" options is calculated from the current chart's timeframe as follows: Chart Timeframe Lower Timeframe Less Precise More Precise < 1hr 1min 1min < 1D 15min 1min < 1W ​2hr​ 30min > 1W 1D 60min The last five options allow users to specify an approximate fixed number of intrabars to analyze per chart bar. The available choices are 12, 24, 50, 100, and 250. The script will calculate the LTF​ which most closely approximates the specified number of intrabars per chart bar. Keep in mind that due to factors such as the length of a ticker's sessions and rounding of the LTF​, it is not always possible to produce the exact number specified. However, the script will do its best to get as close to the value as possible. Specifying MA type Seven MA types are included in the script for different averaging effects:  • Simple  • Exponential  • Wilder (RMA)  • Weighted  • Volume-Weighted  • Arnaud Legoux with `offset` and `sigma` set to 0.85 and 6 respectively.  • Hull Weighting This script includes the option to weight IER values based on the percent rank of absolute price changes on the current chart's timeframe over a specified period, which can be enabled by checking the "Weigh using relative close changes" option in the script settings. This places reduced emphasis on IER values from smaller changes, which may help to reduce noise in the output. █   FOR Pine Script™ CODERS  • This script imports the recently published lower_ltf library for calculating intrabar statistics and the optimal lower timeframe in relation to the current chart's timeframe.  • This script uses the recently released request.security_lower_tf() Pine Script™ function discussed in this blog post .   It works differently from the usual request.security() in that it can only be used on LTFs, and it returns an array containing one value per intrabar.   This makes it much easier for programmers to access intrabar information.  • This script implements a new recommended best practice for tables which works faster and reduces memory consumption.   Using this new method, tables are declared only once with var , as usual. Then, on the first bar only, we use table.cell() to populate the table.   Finally, table.set_*() functions are used to update attributes of table cells on the last bar of the dataset.   This greatly reduces the resources required to render tables. Look first. Then leap.
Pine Script™ indicator
4
WaveTrend 3D█  OVERVIEW WaveTrend 3D (WT3D) is a novel implementation of the famous WaveTrend (WT) indicator and has been completely redesigned from the ground up to address some of the inherent shortcomings associated with the traditional WT algorithm. █  BACKGROUND The WaveTrend (WT) indicator has become a widely popular tool for traders in recent years. WT was first ported to PineScript in 2014 by the user @LazyBear, and since then, it has ascended to become one of the Top 5 most popular scripts on TradingView. The WT algorithm appears to have origins in a lesser-known proprietary algorithm called Trading Channel Index (TCI), created by AIQ Systems in 1986 as an integral part of their commercial software suite, TradingExpert Pro. The software’s reference manual states that “TCI identifies changes in price direction” and is “an adaptation of Donald R. Lambert’s Commodity Channel Index (CCI)”, which was introduced to the world six years earlier in 1980. Interestingly, a vestige of this early beginning can still be seen in the source code of LazyBear’s script, where the final EMA calculation is stored in an intermediate variable called “tci” in the code. █  IMPLEMENTATION DETAILS WaveTrend 3D is an alternative implementation of WaveTrend that directly addresses some of the known shortcomings of the indicator, including its unbounded extremes, susceptibility to whipsaw, and lack of insight into other timeframes. In the canonical WT approach, an exponential moving average (EMA) for a given lookback window is used to assess the variability between price and two other EMAs relative to a second lookback window. Since the difference between the average price and its associated EMA is essentially unbounded, an arbitrary scaling factor of 0.015 is typically applied as a crude form of rescaling but still fails to capture 20-30% of values between the range of -100 to 100. Additionally, the trigger signal for the final EMA (i.e., TCI) crossover-based oscillator is a four-bar simple moving average (SMA), which further contributes to the net lag accumulated by the consecutive EMA calculations in the previous steps. The core idea behind WT3D is to replace the EMA-based crossover system with modern Digital Signal Processing techniques. By assuming that price action adheres approximately to a Gaussian distribution, it is possible to sidestep the scaling nightmare associated with unbounded price differentials of the original WaveTrend method by focusing instead on the alteration of the underlying Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the input series. Furthermore, using a signal processing filter such as a Butterworth Filter, we can eliminate the need for consecutive exponential moving averages along with the associated lag they bring. Ideally, it is convenient to have the resulting probability distribution oscillate between the values of -1 and 1, with the zero line serving as a median. With this objective in mind, it is possible to borrow a common technique from the field of Machine Learning that uses a sigmoid-like activation function to transform our data set of interest. One such function is the hyperbolic tangent function (tanh), which is often used as an activation function in the hidden layers of neural networks due to its unique property of ensuring the values stay between -1 and 1. By taking the first-order derivative of our input series and normalizing it using the quadratic mean, the tanh function performs a high-quality redistribution of the input signal into the desired range of -1 to 1. Finally, using a dual-pole filter such as the Butterworth Filter popularized by John Ehlers, excessive market noise can be filtered out, leaving behind a crisp moving average with minimal lag. Furthermore, WT3D expands upon the original functionality of WT by providing: First-class support for multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis Kernel-based regression for trend reversal confirmation Various options for signal smoothing and transformation A unique mode for visualizing an input series as a symmetrical, three-dimensional waveform useful for pattern identification and cycle-related analysis █  SETTINGS This is a summary of the settings used in the script listed in roughly the order in which they appear. By default, all default colors are from Google's TensorFlow framework and are considered to be colorblind safe. Source: The input series. Usually, it is the close or average price, but it can be any series. Use Mirror: Whether to display a mirror image of the source series; for visualizing the series as a 3D waveform similar to a soundwave. Use EMA: Whether to use an exponential moving average of the input series. EMA Length: The length of the exponential moving average. Use COG: Whether to use the center of gravity of the input series. COG Length: The length of the center of gravity. Speed to Emphasize: The target speed to emphasize. Width: The width of the emphasized line. Display Kernel Moving Average: Whether to display the kernel moving average of the signal. Like PCA, an unsupervised Machine Learning technique whereby neighboring vectors are projected onto the Principal Component. Display Kernel Signal: Whether to display the kernel estimator for the emphasized line. Like the Kernel MA, it can show underlying shifts in bias within a more significant trend by the colors reflected on the ribbon itself. Show Oscillator Lines: Whether to show the oscillator lines. Offset: The offset of the emphasized oscillator plots. Fast Length: The length scale factor for the fast oscillator. Fast Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the fast oscillator. Normal Length: The length scale factor for the normal oscillator. Normal Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the normal frequency. Slow Length: The length scale factor for the slow oscillator. Slow Smoothing: The smoothing scale factor for the slow frequency. Divergence Threshold: The number of bars for the divergence to be considered significant. Trigger Wave Percent Size: How big the current wave should be relative to the previous wave. Background Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background area. Foreground Area Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground area. Background Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the background line. Foreground Line Transparency Factor: Transparency factor for the foreground line. Custom Transparency: Transparency of the custom colors. Total Gradient Steps: The maximum amount of steps supported for a gradient calculation is 256. Fast Bullish Color: The color of the fast bullish line. Normal Bullish Color: The color of the normal bullish line. Slow Bullish Color: The color of the slow bullish line. Fast Bearish Color: The color of the fast bearish line. Normal Bearish Color: The color of the normal bearish line. Slow Bearish Color: The color of the slow bearish line. Bullish Divergence Signals: The color of the bullish divergence signals. Bearish Divergence Signals: The color of the bearish divergence signals. █  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS @LazyBear - For authoring the original WaveTrend port on TradingView @PineCoders - For the beautiful color gradient framework used in this indicator @veryfid - For the inspiration of using mirrored signals for cycle analysis and using multiple lookback windows as proxies for other timeframes
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
54
Time & volume point of control (TPOC & VPOC)What are TPOC & VPOC? TPOC (time point of control) and VPOC (volume point of control) are points in price where highest amount of time/volume was traded. This is considered key information in a market profile, as it shows where market participant interest was highest. Unlike full fledged market profile that shows total time/volume distribution, this script shows the points of control for each candle, plotted with a line (time) and a dot (volume). The script hides your candles/bars by default and forms a line in the middle representing candle range. In case of candles, borders will still be visible. This feature can be turned off in the settings. Volume and time data are fetched from a lower timeframe that is automatically adjusted to fit the timeframe you're using. By default, the following settings are applied: Charts <= 30 min: 1 minute timeframe Charts > 30 min & <= 3 hours : 5 minute timeframe Charts > 3 hours & <= 8 hours : 15 minute timeframe Charts > 8 hours & <= 1D: 1 hour timeframe Charts > 1D & <= 3D : 2 hour timeframe Charts > 3D: 4 hour timeframe Timeframe settings can be changed via input menu. The lower the timeframe, the more precision you get but with the cost of less historical data and slower loading time. Users can also choose which source to use for determining price for points of control, e.g. using close as source, the point of control is set to match the value of lower timeframe candle close. This could be replaced with OHLC4 for example, resulting in a point of control based on OHLC average. To identify more profound points of market participant interest, TPOC & VPOC as percentage of total time/volume thresholds can be set via input menu. When a point of control is equal to or greater than the set percentage threshold, visual elements will be highlighted in a different color, e.g. 50% VPOC threshold will activate a highlight whenever volume traded at VPOC is equal to or greater than 50% of total volume. All colors are customizable. VPOC is defined by fetching lower timeframe candle with the most amount of volume traded and using its close (by default) as a mark for point of control. For TPOC, each candle is divided into 10 lots which are used for calculating amount of closes taking place within the bracket values. The lot with highest amount of closes will be considered a point of control. This mark is displayed in the middle point of a lot: How to utilize TPOC & VPOC Example #1: Trapped market participants One or both points of control at one end of candle range (wick tail) and candle close at the other end serves as an indication of market participants trapped in an awkward position. When price runs away further from these trapped participants, they are eventually forced to cover and drive price even further to the opposite direction: Example #2: Trend initiation A large move that leaves TPOC behind while VPOC is supportive serves as an indication of a trend initiation. Essentially, this is one way to identify an event where price traded sideways most of the time and suddenly moved away with volume: Example #3: POC supported trend A trend is healthy when it's supported by a point of control. Ideally you want to see either time or volume supporting a trend:
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Pine Script™ indicator
23
Equity Bond Currency DashboardDepicts demand-flow between Equities, Bonds and Currencies of 6 countries. Useful in tracking the flow of smart money and checking the dynamics of inter-connected markets. Principle: DXY lies at the heart of the diagram with usd-currency pairs of 5 countries connected to it. When demand for a currency increases it strengthens against Dollar. This is depicted by a line from DXY to the currency indicating demand flow from Dollar to the currency (DXY is only an indicative symbol for Dollar, the currency may not be part of the dollar index). Similarly when Dollar strengthens against the currency, demand flow is depicted by a line from the currency to DXY. Currency blocks are connected to Equity and Bond Yields of the respective countries. Equities and Bonds, when bought, takes the demand from the respective currencies and vice versa. Overall, the demand flows in the direction of arrows. The flow is incomplete without commodities, import/export, interest/inflation rates of countries, however, the diagram most of the times explains why an asset class is performing the way it is. Left side bar of each block is very similar to OHLC candles except for the following - Instead of wicks, top and bottom of the bar represents high and low for the selected time-frame Open and close are normalised for high and low Bar border is red if close < prev.close, green if close >= prev.close Other notes: The diagram requires at least 200 bars in the chart to render. Please select the symbol and time-frame that contain at least 200 bars. The diagram requires a live market to render the flow. To check flows on historical bars, set the option from settings. Desired indices could be selected for countries of choice. Default settings point to futures wherever possible to have the markets live simultaneously across the countries.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
10
Minervini QualifierThe Minervini Qualifier indicator calculates the qualifying conditions from Mark Minervini’s book “Trade like a Stock Market Wizard”. The condition matching is been shown as fill color inside an SMA 20day envelope curve. If the envelope color is red, current close price is below the SMA20 and when blue, current close price is above the SMA20. The fill color can be transparent (not matching qualifying conditions), yellow (matching all conditions except close is still below SMA50), green (all conditions match, SMA200 trending for at least one month up) or blue (all conditions match, SMA200 trending up for at least 5 months) As I wanted also to see which of the qualifying conditions match over time, I’ve added add. lines, each representing one conditions. If it matches, line color is blue, or red if not. Use the data windows (right side), so you know what line represents which condition. Can be turned on/off (default:on) In addition, a relative strength is been calculated, to compare the stock to a reference index. It is just one possible way to calculate it, might be different to what Mark Minervini is using. If the shown value (top right) is above 100, stock performs better compared to reference index (can be set in settings), when below 100, stock performs worse compared to reference index. Can be turned on/off (default:on) How to use it: For more details, read Mark’s book and watch his videos. Limitations: It gives only useful information on daily timeframe (No financial advise, for testing purposes only)
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
16
Bitcoin Miner Sell PressureBitcoin miners are in pain and now (November 2022) selling more than they have in almost 5 years! Introducing: Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure. A free, open-source indicator which tracks on-chain data to highlight when Bitcoin miners are selling more of their reserves than usual. The indicator tracks the ratio of on-chain miner Bitcoin outflows to miner Bitcoin reserves. - Higher = more selling than usual - Lower = less selling than usual - Red = extraordinary sell pressure Today , it's red. What can we see now ? Miners are not great at treasury management. They tend to sell most when they are losing money (like today). But there have been times when they sold well into high profit, such as into the 2017 $20K top and in early 2021 when Bitcoin breached $40K. Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure identifies industry stress, excess and miner capitulation. Unsurprisingly, there is a high correlation with Bitcoin Production Cost; giving strong confluence to both. In some instances, BMSP spots capitulation before Hash Ribbons. Such as today!
Pine Script™ indicator
6

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Relation between Win Ratio and Risk RewardHello Everyone, In this video, I have tried explaining the relationship between win ratio and risk reward. 🎲 Two sides of the coin People often asked me if a strategy win rate is less than 50% then why do we need to follow it? And also we can see in social media - lots of people claiming 90%+ win ratio for their strategy. There is also another set of people who are more infatuated with how much percent profit they can get out of strategy. In social media, we can see people bragging about 1000% + profit trades. The question here is, is it really possible to achieve this consistently or is the expectation to achieve such success reliable? Simple answer for this is yes, it is possible to achieve both 99% win rate and 1000%+ profitability. But, it is almost impossible to achieve both together. Thing we need to understand is, We can have 99% win rate and still lose money!! We can have 1000% profitable trades and still lose money!! How?? That's because people claiming both these things do not talk about other side of the coin. Example 1 : Option Selling for premium Selling options is very popular trading strategy which can often have very high win rates. But, the risk reward for this is very low. You may get premium of $1 where you will be risking $100 on every trade. With that, you will lose money even if you have 99% win rate. 99 X $1 = 99 profit 1 X $100 = 100 loss ---------------------- $1 Loss ---------------------- Example 2 : High Leverage Trades When you are trading with high leverage, profits and losses are magnified. This may lead to lots of losses and also some trades with huge profit. Lets say you are targeting 1000% win per trade with 100X leverage. This means, your position is liquidated upon 1% price drop or less. So, your threshold for withstanding drawdown in a trade is less. To make 1000% profit, you the price need to go up by 10% Risk = $1 Leverage = 100X Buy price = 100 Your position will liquidate if price hits 99. So, by just 1% drop. To achieve 1000% profit, price need to go up by 10% This means, your expectations of profit per trade is very high. This also mean, you are most likely to have more failed trades than wins. So, lets say you will end up with Win ratio of 5% with this expectation. The equation can look something like this. 5 X $10 = 50 profit 95 X $1 = 95 loss ----------------------- $45 loss ----------------------- 🎲 The balance What we learn from above examples is that there is no meaning of considering only Win Ratio or only Risk Reward while trying to build your strategy. What you need to consider is the combination of both together. Here is a formula to understand how much win ratio do you need to breakeven with given risk reward. Win Ratio = 1/(Risk Reward+1) Similarly here is a formula to understand how much Risk Reward you should target to breakeven with given win ratio. Risk Reward = 1/(Win Ratio -1) Here is google sheet containing the formula applied on various values. docs.google.com You can use this formula to understand overall profitability while building or evaluating strategies. Hope this is helpful. Thanks very much.
Education
6
Game Of LiquidityHello traders -Today we will talk about liquidity and its role. What is liquidity? -We will try to explain you as simple as possible what liquidity is and what you should be looking for when you want to spot it. -There is a theory on the FX markets that the Big institutions (Smart money) are always trying to trap us and take our Stop losses. -Retail education as we all know is based on patterns (double top,double bottom, trendlines, supp res zones etc... -As new traders come fresh on the markets they can be easily manipulated and taken away from their money because they are 'easy pray for big boys. -If you want to understand liquidity as simple as possible - when there is a trend line, double top pattern, there are retail stop losses and there is liquidity to be taken. Example: 1) In this example, we see that the price is moving in a downtrend 2) Then the price slows down with momentum and starts to make a lot of liquidity. 3) We can see liquidity in the form of a trendline, double tops, etc. 4) A lot of retail traders lose their money here, while we patiently wait for our opportunity. 5) Our entry is at the strong supply zone, and the price reaches it when it picks up all SL of retail traders. 6) At the end, we see a liquidity sweep that mostly happens in one move, and here we open our position. -Remember: This is the cat and mouse game. In order for one person to win someone else needs to take the loss. So our question is Are you a cat or a mouse? -If this post helped you better understand the concept of liquidity, leave a like. If you have any questions, write below in the comments.
Education
🟨 Cup and Handle Pattern - cheat sheetWhat is the Cup and Handle Pattern? One of the most important chart patterns in the stock market is the Cup and Handle Pattern, invented by William O’Neill. Sometimes you might see it abbreviated as CWH. It also holds the crowd proclaimed title as one of the most profitable and reliable breakout patterns. The Cup and Handle Pattern forms as a bullish continuation pattern that can be found during strong trend. –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Is Cup and Handle Pattern Bullish? William O'Neil cup and handle patterns represent bullish continuation patterns that mark consolidation periods which are followed by breakouts. This pattern includes two components: cup and handle . After advancing, this cup is formed in a bowl shape or with a rounded bottom. Handle forms in the upper third of the cup. –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Stages of a Cup and Handle Pattern Formation Stage 1 Setup: The pattern starts when a price raises from a former base, making the prior trend a bullish trend. At some the profit taking starts taking place and the stock begins the decline, forming the high of the cup. The high of the cup is also called the ‘Left Cup’ Stage 2: Decline: The stock starts to form a new base. It is normal to see above average volume at the beginning of the decline. The volume element is important since it ensures that later buyers to the party are out of the stock and do not provide an overhead supply. By the end of Stage 2 the volume would have fallen below average. This low trading volume is combined with price consolidation around the low of the cup. Stage 3 Recovery: The stock starts to recover and the volume on up days starts to pick up. This indicates that institutions are taking interest in the stock. Pro tip: look for low volume on down days. Now we still have a few more types of players into the stock: the bottom fishers who bought in at the low of the cup and the bag holders who have bought at the high of the cup and have been sitting on a loss. As the stock price moves up, these would partially close their positions making the recovery process a stair stepping process rather than a V shaped recovery. As the price reaches close to the High of the cup, the last bag-holders will cut their losses and will create a large volume sell-off. At this point the “Pivot” is formed or the “High of the Handle”. Stage 4 Consolidation: After the High of the handle, the price is likely to continue its handle formation. The handle pattern occurs as there are still weak hands in the ticker. A shakeout preferably on higher volume is considered a bullish continuation in the cup and handle pattern formation . This indicates that all overhead supply is depleted. The point when the price starts to climb again and reaches the high of the handle is the breakout point. We will look for a to price breaks on higher volume to indicate that institutions have taken control of the stock and that the sky is clear to move upwards. A rule of thumb is to look for a price target with the same value as the prior advance from previous base as the one subsequent to Stage 1. –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Hope this helps! Example of Cup and Handle on AAPL from 2003
Education
1
The Iceberg Illusion: The hidden logic of success We often get mesmerized by someone’s above the surface success and don’t factor in all the below the surface opportunity-costs they paid to achieve that success. This is the ‘iceberg illusion’. It’s been a fav analogy of mine for years. And yet, this just might be a better visual for sport than the ‘iceberg illusion’. You see… the hyper focus on outcomes is one of the biggest failings (or façades) that comes from social media. It creates a false impression of what leads to success. We see the success, but not the work that went into it… The unseen hours, necessary failures, setbacks, crises of confidence, the not-now’s (to the countless asks), the loneliness, the late nights and early mornings; and, all the wobbling that comes before the walking—much less running. There are no shortcuts. There are no overnight successes. The iceberg doesn’t move quickly. It’s not sped up. It just moves consistently; at often a barely discernible speed. What do you want to learn in the next post?
Education
1
A prudent and profitable approach to investing in NSE stocksHi Traders in NSE stocks. I am sharing a method to investing in NSE stocks that I personally use to identify opportunities and limit myself to trading only in highly liquid stocks. I hope that the shared information helps you take a new look at trading and also help you in trading profitably in the most liquid NSE stocks. I am always interested to discuss the markets and approaches to trading. So feel free to engage. All the best.
Education
🟢STOP AND LIMIT ORDERS EXPLAINED🟢 ✴️Types of orders in trading There are two main types of order: entry orders and closing orders. An entry order is an instruction to open a trade when the underlying market hits a specific level, while a closing order is an instruction to close a trade when the market hits a specific level. ✴️Stops vs limits A stop order is an instruction to trade when the price of a market hits a specific level that is less favourable than the current price. On the other hand, a limit order is an instruction to trade if the market price reaches a specified level more favourable than the current price. ✴️Stop orders explained You can use stop orders to close positions and to open them, by using either a stop-loss order or a stop-entry order. ✴️Stop-loss orders A stop-loss order is the common term for a stop closing order – an instruction to close your position when the market value becomes less favourable than the current price. ✴️Stop-entry orders A stop-entry order enables you to open a position when the market reaches a value that is less favourable than the current price. If you were opening a long position, you’d place your stop-entry order above the current market price. And if you were opening a short position, you’d place your stop-entry order below the current price. Although it may seem strange to open a trade at a worse price, stop-entry orders can enable you to enter a trade once a trend has been confirmed. This helps you take advantage of market momentum. ✴️Limit orders explained Like stop orders, limit orders can be used to open and close trades. ✴️Limit-entry orders A limit-entry order enables you to enter a trade when the market hits a more favourable price than the current price. For long positions, this would be below the current price level and for short positions this would be above. ✴️Limit-close orders A limit-close order enables you to close a trade at a more favourable price – which would be at a higher level for a long position and a lower level for a short position. The major drawback of a limit order is that there is the possibility it will not be filled if the market never reaches your order level – in this case the order would expire. If you had placed a limit-entry order, it is possible that your trade would never be executed. And if you had placed a limit-close order, your trade would not be closed automatically. 😊Thank you for reading, guys😊 ✅Like and Subscribe for more education✅ Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
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Education
28
WHY MONEY MANAGEMENT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE OF TRADING!Hey Traders here us a quick video that explains why money mangement is essential to trading success. Regardless of what level of trading education and experience you are this can benefit your trading. Without proper risk management it is very difficult if not impossible to protect your investment capital. Trading is a game of probabilities and in order to come out ahead I think it's important to know when to risk more or when to risk less. Especially when you are on a role in a winning streak vs waiting for the tides to turn during a losing streak. Enjoy! Trade Well Clifford
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ADAUSDT $36c Likely on PhoenixAscendingHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Here's a short term overview on what we can expect for the price of Cardano for the immediate term. Technical indicator Phoenix Ascending together with Bollinger Bands point towards a potential $0.36c, as we see the RSI and EMA moving up with bullish buying momentum in the short term. IF the green EMA can cross over the 50 line, we can expect movement towards the basis of the bollinger bands, even if it is just a wick. The basis is the 20d moving average currently at $0.36. However, currently with all the bankruptcy happening in the crypto environment, the markets do not look favorable for a new bull cycle, so I expect a resistance zone here. The next immanent support zone is around 0.22c, where there is a high demand zone and this is where I expect a bottom for ADAUSDT to be found. Curious about what Decembers hold for Bitcoin historically? Check out this idea: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
24
Trends could allow some further upward movementI'm really mixed going into today. I'm going to be a bit bullish, only because I think there is a lot of upward trend movement. However, we are maxed out on trends yet again here, so I am not sure we make it much higher, and I think this rally may be coming to a close, at least briefly. The trends for today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 4005 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 4041 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 4082 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 4093 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Overall, as I say in the video, I'd like to see us shoot up to that 4hr uptrending line, and I would short the market again, especially as it meets a downtrending line of all price action for the year. If we go lower from here, I'll have to decide where I want to enter at if things show significant weakness. Economic Data - We have Unemployment here shortly and payroll numbers. Both should cause some market shock, so sit back and enjoy the ride. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Slightly Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral
Editors' picks
9
ADA: Potential for 33 Cents Maybe Proximity of 35 to 36 CentsHi Everyone! Yes, I agree with CryptoCheck- Here is her publication for Cardano. She's worth following. So, check her out. Yes, we have increased odds for expansion UP in the short term group of time frames; as I mentioned in the video. The question is, will this expansion up event in the Short Term Group push us through the White Lower B-Band at $0.33 cents in the 4-Day time frame? The White Lower B-Band in the 4-Day has been acting as our Ceiling of Resistance in this current 4-Day candle. Will we over extend above the white lower b-band in the 4-Day? I'm not prepared to say for a fact that we will over extend above it. It's certainly possible though. Do expect a lot of resistance at the $0.33 cent level of course. If we can break out above $0.33, then yes, the odds of running up to within proximity of $0.35 to $0.36 cents is certainly there. I also pointed out the Orange Diagonal Trend Line in my Wyckoff Schematic is around the $0.35 to $0.36 cent area. So, it's possible to go there. However, we need to continue going higher than that afterward if this is to be considered early stages of Accumulation. We'll see... We get a new 12-hour, 24-hour, 2-Day, 3-Day, 4-Day and 6-Day candle in approximately 5.5 hours. We will have more information then. At which point, I'll plan on providing another update. But maybe not until another 2 to 6 hours after those new candles begin. Hope this was helpful. Happy Trading and Stay Awesome! David Short Term Group: Near Term Group:
9
Relation between Win Ratio and Risk RewardHello Everyone, In this video, I have tried explaining the relationship between win ratio and risk reward. 🎲 Two sides of the coin People often asked me if a strategy win rate is less than 50% then why do we need to follow it? And also we can see in social media - lots of people claiming 90%+ win ratio for their strategy. There is also another set of people who are more infatuated with how much percent profit they can get out of strategy. In social media, we can see people bragging about 1000% + profit trades. The question here is, is it really possible to achieve this consistently or is the expectation to achieve such success reliable? Simple answer for this is yes, it is possible to achieve both 99% win rate and 1000%+ profitability. But, it is almost impossible to achieve both together. Thing we need to understand is, We can have 99% win rate and still lose money!! We can have 1000% profitable trades and still lose money!! How?? That's because people claiming both these things do not talk about other side of the coin. Example 1 : Option Selling for premium Selling options is very popular trading strategy which can often have very high win rates. But, the risk reward for this is very low. You may get premium of $1 where you will be risking $100 on every trade. With that, you will lose money even if you have 99% win rate. 99 X $1 = 99 profit 1 X $100 = 100 loss ---------------------- $1 Loss ---------------------- Example 2 : High Leverage Trades When you are trading with high leverage, profits and losses are magnified. This may lead to lots of losses and also some trades with huge profit. Lets say you are targeting 1000% win per trade with 100X leverage. This means, your position is liquidated upon 1% price drop or less. So, your threshold for withstanding drawdown in a trade is less. To make 1000% profit, you the price need to go up by 10% Risk = $1 Leverage = 100X Buy price = 100 Your position will liquidate if price hits 99. So, by just 1% drop. To achieve 1000% profit, price need to go up by 10% This means, your expectations of profit per trade is very high. This also mean, you are most likely to have more failed trades than wins. So, lets say you will end up with Win ratio of 5% with this expectation. The equation can look something like this. 5 X $10 = 50 profit 95 X $1 = 95 loss ----------------------- $45 loss ----------------------- 🎲 The balance What we learn from above examples is that there is no meaning of considering only Win Ratio or only Risk Reward while trying to build your strategy. What you need to consider is the combination of both together. Here is a formula to understand how much win ratio do you need to breakeven with given risk reward. Win Ratio = 1/(Risk Reward+1) Similarly here is a formula to understand how much Risk Reward you should target to breakeven with given win ratio. Risk Reward = 1/(Win Ratio -1) Here is google sheet containing the formula applied on various values. docs.google.com You can use this formula to understand overall profitability while building or evaluating strategies. Hope this is helpful. Thanks very much.
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