Everything is Just Beginning: Why the War-Driven Rally is a Trap
Hey everyone,
The war in the Middle East, which I have been warning about throughout 2025, has begun. But to the surprise of many, the markets did not collapse. On the contrary, we saw a rally in cryptocurrency and gold, while indices only corrected slightly.
Just 5 min read it I warned you long

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Gold (XAU/USD): Safehaven flows favour Dollar โ will $5k hold?Gold took a serious hit yesterday, falling sharply despite the massive geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Why? Because the resulting energy shock is inherently inflationary, and safe-haven flows are currently pouring into the US Dollar instead.
However, XAU/USD has found a critical floor a
Is Apple Rolling Over?Apple has done little for a long time, and some traders may think the tech giant is rolling over.
The first pattern on todayโs chart is the weekly close of $278.78 on December 5. AAPL tried to cross above that level the following week but failed. It was revisited early last month without breaking.
Microsoft - One of the best swingtrades ever!๐ตMicrosoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) is setting up for something big:
๐Analysis summary:
For over six months, Microsoft has clearly been creating a healthy correction. But looking at higher timeframe structure, Microsoft is also currently retesting a major support area. If we see bullish confirmation s
BITCOIN at $50k would follow exactly the 2022 script.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to replicate the 2022 Bear Cycle, in fact it's been repeating the price action even before it as the build up sequence since 2021 is identical to the one of late 2024 - 2025.
BTC is right now at the 2nd Stage of consolidation right above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Oil Gaps Into Multi-Year ResistanceWith conflict erupting in the Middle East over the weekend, the gap higher in oil prices is hardly surprising. But while sudden price moves tend to attract traders like moths to a flame, moments like this are exactly when context becomes most important.
Geopolitics jolts energy markets
Energy
Gold โ Volatility Risks Increase Due to Iran ConflictIt could be argued that geopolitics werenโt considered a primary driver of Gold through much of February. The focus for traders was more on positioning, shifting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and the jolt of uncertainty that followed the US Supreme Courtโs decision to strike down Presid
S&P and a very timely correction for the U.S. presidentWith the start of the boxing match between the U.S. and the regime in Iran in the Middle East ring, and with rising threats around the Strait of Hormuz, around 20โ30% of global oil and gas supply could be disruptedโat least in the coming week (hopefully not for long).
Usually, these kinds of tensio
Bitcoin - War in Dubai, Bitcoin crash soon! (pump after that)The current war between Iran and the UAE (Dubai) will probably send the price of Bitcoin (and all altcoins) down! Dubai has been one of the most secure places in the world, but with the current attacks, people may lose trust, and the housing market could collapse in this country. Dubai is known as a
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Swing Profile [BigBeluga]๐ต OVERVIEW
Swing Profile is a dynamic swing-based volume profiling tool that builds a complete volume profile for each completed market swing.
Instead of using fixed sessions or time ranges, the indicator anchors its profile strictly between confirmed swing highs and swing lows, allowing tra
[MAD] Gann o MaticusGannomat โ Full Automated Gann Grids & Astro Cycles
Automatic Gann quadrant boxes with geometric arc projections. Cycle boundaries from standard timeframes or real planetary astronomy.
Thanks BarefootJoey, master of Astrolib
What Does This Indicator Do?
Gannomat draws a Gann quadrant box
Breakout Volume Delta | Flux ChartsGENERAL OVERVIEW:
Breakout Volume Delta is an indicator that measures breakout strength using lower-timeframe volume delta. It estimates buyer vs. seller participation within the breakout candle by summing bullish and bearish sub-candle volumes, then visualizes that dominance by splitting the candl
HTF Floating Candles w/ Volume Footprint [theUltimator5]This indicator is designed to pull higher-timeframe candles outside of the chart, and add the footprint volume data to give a complete snapshot of the Higher Timeframe (HTF) trading range and volume data without cluttering your view.
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Earnings Snapshot [Trendoscope]๐ฒ Overview
The Earnings Snapshot is a custom indicator designed to provide traders and investors with a quick, visual overview of a stock's earnings performance and its impact on price action. This tool automates the analysis of earnings reports by fetching historical and future earnings data,
Market Structure Dashboard | Flux ChartsGENERAL OVERVIEW
Market Structure Dashboard is a multi-timeframe market structure analysis indicator. It combines EMA trend detection, swing high/low tracking, market structure labels, Order Block detection, Fair Value Gap detection, liquidity sweep detection, volume analysis, volatility analysis,
Smart NR2-NR20 and Inside Bar (Zeiierman)โ Overview
Smart NR2โNR20 + Inside Bar (Zeiierman) is a compression + breakout scanner that searches for the tightest Narrow Range (NR) condition across NR2โฆNR20, plus optional Inside Bar detection. When a valid compression forms, it draws a box around the setup, projects the high/low levels for
TASC 2026.03 One Percent A Weekโ OVERVIEW
This script implements "A High-Probability Weekly Trading Strategy For TQQQ" as dictated in the March 2026 edition of the TASC Traders' Tips , "Trading Snapbacks In A Leveraged ETFโ. In this article the author creates a mean reversion strategy intended for systematic and discretionary
Smart Trader, Concentric Candles & Aristotelian Cycloids
Smart Trader, Episode 05
Concentric Candles & Aristotelian Cycloids
by Ata Sabanci
The Spark โ How a 2,000-Year-Old Paradox Found the Charts
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
It started with a film about Aristotle's Wheel
Paradox โ a problem that puzzled mathematicians
for two mille
MovingAveragesLibrary "MovingAverages"
A collection of O(1) numerically stable moving averages that support anchors and fractional lengths up to 100k bars.
Pine Script has a robust set of moving averages suitable for a majority of cases, making these alternatives useful only if you need anchoring, fractional
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Community trends
๏ปฟPalantir at a Critical Turning PointThe chart is on the daily timeframe and shows a classic trendline breakdown followed by a pullback.
Key observations:
โข The long-term uptrend line has been broken
โข Price dropped sharply after the break
โข The current move is a pullback to the broken trendline
โข The moving average (orange line)
Updated Paths(Not financial advice)
Let me know what you think in the comments below.
A few paths and scenarios to consider.
My estimations of likelihood are:
Green = 6%
Yellow = 47%
Red = 47%
2026 Ai spending commitments = $700,000,000,000/year
Generous 2027 revenue estimates = $330,000,000,000/year, assumin
BW: mid- and long-term bullish trend structure NYSE:BW is evolving within a very bullish macro trend structure, supported by a meaningful business catalyst.
In a broader trend context, as long as price continues to hold above the 50-DMA, I expect bullish momentum to persist, with scope for a move into the next mid-term resistance zone at 15โ25
Petroleo Brasileiro has been in BULL markets for MANY years now!Some HIGH dividend paying oil plays like Petroleo Brasileiro have been in BULL markets for MANY years now.
It also JUST broke out of IMPORTANT consolidation patterns 2 months ago, before any WAR.
This looks more like the CONTINUATION, than the END of the trend.
MSFT - OUTLOOKPrice is pumping from the demand zone after strong reaction. Buyers stepped in aggressively at this level. If momentum continues, further upside move is likely.
BIAS:
Bullish while price holds above the demand zone.
SUMMARY:
โข Strong reaction from demand zone.
โข Momentum favors continuation toward
NVO - Value OpportunitNYSE:NVO at $38.50: A Generational Value Opportunity**
Novo Nordisk ( NYSE:NVO $) has entered a classic 'Big Crash' territory, currently trading at a Forward P/E of 10.7x. Despite the price drop, the fundamentals remain legendary: Gross Margins at 84.6%, Revenue Growth sustained at 31%, and a massi
APPLE The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the APPLE next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 257.54
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Targ
Trading the First Pullback in PEP: Play When Itโs in PlayIn this post, I will break down the First Pullback Pattern and use a real example in PEP to show exactly how the trade is structured.
First, we identify the context (the First Pullback).
Then we apply a structured execution method (WRB Fade).
The key idea is simple:
Only trade when the mark
Some people think $HIMS $NVO are dead companies. I donโt agee.Some people here think NYSE:HIMS and NYSE:NVO are dead companies. I donโt agree โ hereโs why๐
NYSE:HIMS is partnering with NYSE:NVO to distribute obesity treatments through its telehealth platform, including drugs like Wegovy. The goal is to make GLP-1 treatments easier to access online, wi
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Community trends
๏ปฟBTC Weekly Structure Shows Potential Reaction at Major SupportThe chart highlights a rising structural zone marked as MAJOR SUPPORT, where price has reacted multiple times in the past. The green circles show several historical reactions where the market touched this rising support area and moved upward, confirming the importance of this level in the long-term
BTC/USD โ Key Support & Target ZonesThe chart highlights critical support and resistance levels for BTC/USD. The blue upward channel trendline indicates strong dynamic support, while the 80,000 line marks the potential major resistance/target zone. Price is expected to bounce from the current support zone, with potential upward moveme
SUI has a very bright roadmap (3D)It appears that SUI is currently forming Wave D of a larger structure, and based on the current market structure we expect the price to react from the green support zone and potentially move toward the marked targets on the chart.
The green zone can be considered a key accumulation area. Instead of
BTCUSD Continuing Its Downward MoveThe chart shows a clear bearish structure with price trading under strong resistance and forming lower highs and lower lows. Selling pressure remains dominant as the market continues to move downward after rejecting higher levels. This movement suggests that sellers are in control and the momentum f
BTC Bullish Channel Rebound โ Potential Rally Toward $74K1๏ธโฃ Market Structure
The blue zig-zag pattern indicates a corrective move after a strong impulse up.
Price dropped from the recent high near $74K and is now forming a potential higher low inside the channel.
The lower teal trendline is acting as dynamic support.
โก๏ธ This suggests the overall stru
BTCUSDT: Structure Suggests Possible Recovery Toward 68.8KHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSDT previously moved inside a clearly defined downward channel, where sellers remained in control and price consistently formed lower highs and lower lows. This bearish structure reflected steady selling pressu
BTCUSDT Analysis: Rejection at 71,400 Signals Possible PullbackHello traders! Hereโs my technical outlook based on the current BTCUSDT (3H) chart structure. Bitcoin previously moved under a broad descending resistance line, where sellers maintained control and the market consistently produced lower highs after each recovery attempt. This structure reflected sus
BTCUSDT Forming Bullish MomentumBTCUSDT is forming a clear bullish momentum pattern, a classic bullish reversal signal that often indicates an upcoming breakout. The price has been consolidating within a narrowing range, suggesting that selling pressure is weakening while buyers are beginning to regain control. With consistent vol
BTC Wedge Structure. $150K PotentialBTC โ we are literally at a key point of the entire uptrend from 16k. A bullish reversal pattern, a falling wedge, is forming. There are two breakout levels: 70k and 90k. The key support level that will determine whether a prolonged crypto winter begins is 65k, with the last line of defense for the
Major Support Test After Downtrend | Key Levels to WatchThe market is currently testing a major historical support zone around 1800โ1900 after forming a clear lower-high bearish structure over the past months.
Looking at the higher timeframe, price has been respecting several key levels where strong reactions previously occurred. This makes the current
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XAU/USD (Gold) - Safe Haven Demand + Weak NFP Data (07.03.2026)Description : Setup Overview OANDA:XAUUSD
โ
XAUUSD is currently reacting from a major support and cloud demand zone, where price recently formed a higher low near point D. The market structure suggests that sellers are losing momentum after the previous downtrend line break.
โ
The descending tre
Gold Weekly Levels: Sweep 5250 liquidity Pullback 5000 key level๐ฑ GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT โ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
๐ข Gold closed the week strong at 5170 USD, maintaining upside momentum, but a pullback is overdue according to the correction timer, which indicates a 100+ USD decline is expected soon.
๐ Expect more range-bound price action early this week, but be prepar
XAUUSD Holding Trend Support - Bullish Continuation PossibleHello traders! Hereโs my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (2H) chart structure. Price previously developed a steady bullish move after rebounding from a lower support region, gradually forming higher highs and higher lows while respecting a well-defined ascending trend line. This upward
XAUUSD โ This Zone Decides Everything XAUUSD โ This Zone Decides Everything
Gold is currently trading around 5170 as the market continues to consolidate after the recent rejection from higher levels.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven demand, the stronger US dollar environment is still creating pressure on gol
GOLD (XAU/USD) โ Golden Reversal 61.8% Zone Holding |Safe Haven ๐ XAU/USD โ Golden Reversal Zone Holding (Bullish Setup)
๐ฅGold is currently reacting strongly from a major confluence support zone, combining the ascending channel support, key demand area, and the Fibonacci 61.8% Golden Reversal Level.
๐ฅThis zone historically attracts institutional buying, and t
XAUUSD Bearish Trendline Rejection with Downside Target
Gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe is trading under a strong descending trendline, indicating continued bearish pressure. After a **Change of Character (CHOCH)**, price moved into a consolidation **range** below resistance near **5190**. The Ichimoku cloud is also positioned above price, acting
Gold Key Levels & Potential Reversal Zones โ March 2026Analysis of critical gold levels highlighting strong support at 4,994, potential bullish breakout at 5,202, minor resistance at 5,296, major resistance at 5,394, and top target zone near 5,504. Watch these zones for price stabilization, reversals, or breakout opportunities.
Gold Fell Despite War Risk โIs Inflation Now Driving the Market?This week delivered one of the clearest contradictions in the market.
Geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East, oil surged above $92, and recession fears returned after a shockingly weak U.S. jobs report. Payrolls reportedly fell by 92K and unemployment rose to 4.4%.
Yet despite these ri
XAUUSD (Gold) Market AnalysisHello Traders hope everyone one good
So we're here with another XAUUSD Idea what do you think about this? let us know about your idea in comment section
XAUUSD (Gold) Market Analysis
After a strong bearish movement earlier, the market shifted into a consolidation phase where liquidity was gradua
Goldโs Larger ABCDE Structure Points to a Potential Upside BreakGoldโs Larger ABCDE Structure Points to a Potential Upside Break
This is another perspective on how I see gold developing.
The price may be in wave E of a larger ABCDE pattern.
After an aggressive correction in wave D, it looks like Gold may soon start an impulsive wave.
I am not the only one s
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EURJPY Bearish Alert | Middle East Tensions Boost JPY!Hey Traders,
In tomorrow's trading session, we are monitoring EURJPY for a potential selling opportunity around the 184.900 zone.
EURJPY is currently trading in a downtrend and is undergoing a corrective phase, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 184.900 supportโresistance area. This le
EURUSD Long: Rebounds From 1.1570 Demand - Recovery To 1.1670Hello traders! Hereโs my technical outlook based on the current EURUSD (3H) chart structure. Price previously moved inside a clearly defined descending channel, where sellers maintained control and the market consistently formed lower highs and lower lows. This structure reflected steady bearish pre
EURUSD: Descending Structure Favors Further Decline To 1.1530Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
EURUSD previously traded inside a clearly defined downward channel, where sellers maintained control and price consistently formed lower highs and lower lows. This structure reflected sustained bearish pressure as t
USDJPY: Buying After Breakout ๐บ๐ธ๐ฏ๐ต
USDJPY closed, testing a significant daily horizontal resistance.
Its breakout and a daily candle close above that will provide a strong bullish signal.
A bullish movement will be expected at least to 159.0 level then.
โค๏ธPlease, support my work with like, thank you!โค๏ธ
I am part of Trade Nat
GBPNZD Double Bottom Breakout โ Bulls Targeting 2.2900 โ 2.3100GBPNZD Double Bottom Breakout โ Bulls Targeting 2.2900 โ 2.3100
GBPNZD is showing a strong bullish reversal after forming a clear double bottom pattern on the H4 timeframe.
The two equal lows around the 2.24 area created a solid demand base, indicating that sellers were unable to push price lowe
EURUSD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1618
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 1.1632
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish
EURJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 183.326.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recom
EURJPY H4 | Potential Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has bounced off our buy entry level at 182.20, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our stop loss is set at 181.11, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 184.61, which is an overlap
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