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Time called on Bitcoins post US election rally?Bitcoin trades lower at $97,400 (-3.76%) as more signs emerge that investors have called time on its one-month post-US election rally. As noted yesterday, the modest gains that followed Trump's appointments of the pro-crypto Paul Atkins as SEC head and David Sacks as his "AI and Crypto Czar" were warning signs the rally was faltering. As was the volatility viewed on Friday morning when Bitcoin hit an air pocket falling from over $100k to a low of $92,092. All of this reinforces the idea that BTC is likely entering a consolidation phase in the days/weeks ahead.

China headlines help AUD/USD hold critical support. The AUDUSD finished higher o/n at .6440 (+0.80%) boosted by reports that China will increase support for its economy. We suspect yesterdays China headlines help the AUD/USD remain above critical multi month support at .6370/50 for now, despite the likelihood of a dovish pivot this afternoon from the RBA as outlined in the article ⬇️ The AUD/USD would need to rebound above resistance at .6550 to suggest that a stronger recovery can occur. www.ig.com

Bitcoin possible retest of support ~$90k before uptrend resumes Bitcoin trades at $95,654 (-1.68%), continuing to work off overbought readings and consolidating the gains that followed its post-election rally to the $99,800 high. Once the current period of consolidation is complete, which may include another leg lower towards $90,000 (Wave c of iv as viewed on the chart below), we expect the uptrend to resume, leading to a break of $100k.

USDJPY breakdown deepens ahead of Dec BoJ meeting USDJPY finished lower overnight at 149.56 (-0.11%) its lowest daily close in over six weeks. The rebound in the JPY is being supported by increased expectations of a 25bp rate hike at the BoJ’s Dec meeting following a strong rise last week in the Tokyo core rate of inflation (2.2% in November, up from 1.8% in October) and after BoJ Governor Ueda said over the weekend “we are closer to the next hike”. Providing USD/JPY remains below the 151/152 resistance zone, the risks are for a deeper decline towards 145.00, which may prove too conservative if the BOJ hikes rates and the Fed cut rates on December 19th.

ASX200 tries its hand at the upside again The ASX200 finished 23 points (0.28%) higher yesterday at 8417 giving back a good chunk of gains as the 3pm seller that we saw last Tuesday returned. Nonetheless, yesterdays close above multi-week trend channel resistance, currently at 8400ish was a positive development. Provided the ASX200 can sustain the move above 8400 over the next 48 hours, it will be considered a genuine break higher, opening up a move towards 8600. Aware that a close back below 8400 warns we have seen yet another false break higher.

Bitcoin takes a well earned breather Bitcoin is trading at $94,060 (-3.92%), with the retreat from the $99,800 high viewed as a much needed pullback to work off overbought readings, rather than the start of a reversal lower or anything sinister. It also provides a reminder that markets, even crypto markets don’t move in straight lines indefinitely. Looking ahead, the upside acceleration in Bitcoin post the US election is clearly impulsive, much more akin to a Wave III than a blow off type Wave V high we had been expecting. This suggests that after this pullback is complete BTC will push above $100k.

Crude oil signs of basing emerge WTI Crude Oil closed higher overnight at $69.17 (3.21%) on news that production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield had been halted due to a power outage. An escalation in European Geopolitical tensions also supported the rally after the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia. A bullish engulfing candle has formed overnight from just ahead of key support $66.00/$65.00 area, which suggests further upside towards $71.50/72.50 is likely in the sessions ahead.

Get ready get set for Nvidia's earnings In the lead-up to its earnings report on Thursday morning AEDT, Nvidia's stock pulled back 1.29% to $140.15 overnight. Expectations are high, and the market will go into the announcement positioned long, looking for a fifth consecutive quarterly earnings beat. If Nvidia's results beat expectations, its shares could climb above $150 in the sessions ahead. Conversely, disappointment could prompt a swift downturn toward the critical support level at $130.00. CEO Jensen Huang's commentary on the call will be particularly important regarding expectations around the Blackwell launch, supply, and Hopper shipments. Given Nvidia's significant impact, its performance will undoubtedly drive sentiment in the tech sector and the broader market into year-end. For the record, there is a range of expectations out there. - Eikon has an EPS of $0.72 and Revenues of $32.1 billion expected which seems on the low side. - A large US broker is forecasting EPS of $0.79c and Revenues of $38.8 billion. - Earnings Whisper has EPS of $0.78c and Revenues of $32.81 billion.

AUDUSD tries to claw back ahead of Jobs release 25 minutes until AU jobs data drops: The market is looking for +25k jobs and for the U/R to remain at 4.1%. #AUDUSD is trading at .6492/94, trying to claw its way higher after closing at an almost seven-month low. The risks there appear to be a test of multi-week support in the .6360/50 area. The AU rates market is pricing in just a 10% chance of a rate cut for December and has pushed back expectations of a first full 25bp RBA rate cut until August 2025.

USDJPY completes an effortless glide above 155.00 overnight USDJPY closed higher o/n at 155.47 (0.55%), marking its highest daily close in 19 weeks as the rally in US yields extended overnight following the confirmation of a Republican Sweep. After its effortless glide above 155.00 overnight, there will be some concerns expressions on the faces of Japan’s top currency officials as they enter the office this morning, with 160 now likely firming on the markets radar.

Gold under pressure from higher yields and stronger USD Gold finished lower overnight at $2619 (-2.42%) undercut by higher #yields and a stronger #USD. If gold were to now see a break below interim support at $2600, we would expect to see further unwind of long gold positioning taking it back towards $2550.

Bitcoin hits another fresh record high Bitcoin trades higher at $86,976 (+7.88%) after hitting another fresh record high of $88,480 earlier this morning. Looking at what comes next - after BTC struck a high just below $74,000 in mid-March, it then spent the next seven months winding up as tight as a spring. The election of the “pro crypto” Donald Trump last week was the trigger for the spring to uncoil and with the force of momentum behind it - a move into the low $90’s appears likely. We would also expect to see some rotation into coins like ETH which is trading about 17% below its YTD high.

Gold break of uptrend support leaves it vulnerable Gold is trading lower at $2660 (-3.04%) as the Republican election victory bolstered the USD and US yields and sparked a sharp sell-off in metals. The sell-off accelerated after gold broke below trend line support at $2690ish, leaving the yellow metal vulnerable to a deeper decline towards $2600 in the sessions ahead.

Bitcoin breaks thru into Blue Sky territory Bitcoin trades higher at $75,976 (+9.47%), surging after the election of the pro crypto Donald Trump. As a reminder, Trump has promised to launch a national crypto stockpile, fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler and look to ensure all future Bitcoin is mined in the US. Bitcoins ability to hold above key support $67/65k ahead of the US Election and its break and likely daily close above $74,000 today confirms that the uptrend has resumed, opening the way for it to hit $80,000 in the sessions ahead.

Will the cracks in the Nasdaq widen post election?NASDAQ100 - cracks have appeared. Will they widen after the US Election. After failing to break above its mid-July 20,690 record high early last week, the first cracks for the Nasdaq 100 appeared on Thursday after it closed below horizontal and uptrend support at 20,000. Should the Nasdaq 100 see a break of critical support at 19,600/500, it would indicate that a deeper decline is underway towards initial support at 18,833, coming from the 200-day moving average. Below that, we have the September 18,400 low and then uptrend support at 18,100 coming from the December 2022 10671 low. Aware that while the Nasdaq 100 remains above the 19,600/500 support area, another test of the 20,690-record high remains possible. You can view our latest full Wall Street update ⬇️ www.ig.com

Bitcoin the bellwether to watch as US election results roll in Bitcoin trades lower this morning at $67,807 (-1.60%). In the early part of this week, the focus has been on the final set of US election polls, revealing that pro-crypto presidential candidate Trump's election lead has evaporated. BTC appears to have picked up on that shift in sentiment in the middle of last week, as it heads for a sixth consecutive session of losses. This makes it a good bellwether to watch tomorrow as the vote counting commences. Technically, Bitcoin needs to see a sustained break above resistance at $74,000 to confirm the uptrend has resumed towards $80,000. Aware that a sustained retreat below support at $65,000 signals that last week's break higher has failed and that Bitcoin has returned to the safety of its seven-month trend channel, viewed on the chart below.

Bitcoin on track for best monthly gain since March Bitcoin trades at $72,362 (-0.50%), on track for a stunning 14.3 % gain in October, its largest monthly gain since March 2024. Bitcoin's rally this month has been driven by a supportive risk backdrop, geopolitical uncertainties, and the market's continued pricing in a Donald Trump election victory next week. Bitcoin needs to see a sustained break above resistance at $74,000 (ideally after next week's US election) to confirm the uptrend has resumed towards $80,000.

ASX200 on track for a fall in October.The ASX200 snapped a three-day winning streak yesterday after the mixed Q3 2024 inflation data against the backdrop of a still firm labour market dashed hopes of an #RBA rate cut before year-end. Ahead of its final trading session in October, the ASX200 is down 1.08% for the month and continues to spin its wheels below multi-month trend channel resistance, which currently resides in the 8350/60 area and above important support at 8110/00. A sustained break of either of these levels is needed to indicate in which direction the ASX200’s next significant move will come.

Crude oil falls as geopolitical fears move to the back burner Crude Oil closed lower overnight at $67.38 (-6.17%), erasing all and more of the previous week's rally following Israel's restrained weekend response to Iran's October 1st attack. With geopolitical concerns on the back burner for now, this week's data-rich US calendar will provide more insights into the demand outlook for crude oil ahead of next week's US election and China's NPC standing committee expected to reveal the details of the country's fiscal stimulus package. Technically, providing crude oil remains below the $71.50/72.50 resistance area, the risks remain to the downside, including a retest and break of the September $65.27 low.

JPY on track for its worst monthly performance in 8 years. USD/JPY closed higher at 153.29 (+0.65%), up 6.70% in October, putting the JPY on track for its worst monthly performance in 8 years (since November 2016). The slide in the JPY accelerated yesterday after the LDP/ Komeito ruling coalition lost its lower house majority for the first time since 2009. There are signs that Ishiba will be able to cobble together an LDP-led minority government, which would be the first occurrence of this since WW2. This month's sell-off in the JPY increases the chances that the BOJ may push back against recent JPY weakness at its meeting on Thursday. While USD/JPY holds above an important band of support at 152.00/150.00 further gains appear likely.

AUDUSD at six week lows as sell off extends AUDUSD is trading this morning at .6658 (-0.72%), an almost six-week low, as its bounce to yesterdays .6723 proved short-lived, which coincidentally was the title of the Ozzie article ⬇️ yesterday. The fall in the AUD/USD came as US yields and the USD extended their gains overnight, continuing to price in a higher chance of a Donald Trump election victory and less Fed rate cuts into year-end. If the AUD/USD were to see a sustained break of support at .6650/25, which includes the 200-day moving average, it would open the way for the sell-off to extend towards the next downside support at .6575/60. www.ig.com

ASX200 resume its battle with multi week resistance The ASX200 this week has resumed its battle with multi-week trend channel resistance, which currently resides in the 8325/30 area. A sustained break and close above here would set the ASX200 up for a run towards 8450 into year-end. Conversely, a failure to see a sustained close above 8320/25 combined with a fall through support at 8110/00 would warn that a medium-term high has been struck and that a deeper pullback is underway. ASX futures closed 68 points (-0.81%) lower at 8308, which points towards the ASX200 opening this morning at ~8276.

Nasdaq set to play catch up?US stocks mostly closed higher overnight, buoyed by a mix of economic data (retail sales and jobless claims) that would melt the heart of even the most hardened economic critique, sending the Dow Jones to a new record high. Drilling down, the Nasdaq100 remains the laggard of the key three key indices. However, provided it remains above short-term support at 20,000 and a more important layer of support at 19,600/500, we look for a test and break of the mid-July 20,690 high before a push towards 21,500. Looking ahead, tech titan Tesla is set to report earnings next week along with Lockheed Martin, Coca-Cola, Boeing and American Airlines. You can read our preview of American Airlines www.ig.com The rates market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25bp Fed rate cut for November and has a cumulative 42bp or rate cuts priced for year-end.

USDJPY firm ahead of JP inflation data. USDJPY is trading higher at 150.21 (0.38%), extending its gain ahead of today's Japanese inflation data due in just under an hour. Headline inflation in September is expected to rise by 2.6% YoY a step down from 3% prior, with core CPI expected to rise by 2.4% YoY falling from 2.8% prior. We prefer fading rallies in USD/JPY towards the 151/152 resistance area.