Summer is over, childrens are forced back to school, and policy makers and money movers are back.
Going to try going to the point here. And just going to look at the west (NA & Central + North + West europe) and south east asia. Africa is pointless, and then I do not want to look at every country russia north africa australia etc there is too much to look at there's probably some interesting places and companies (or will be spread a little every where). South America is probably rip also.
There are alot of things so I'll use bullet points. I will try listing most of the major facts.
> Long Term + IQs in the west have dropped around 15 points since the 19th century. Which is huge. An average person today would be mentally retarded back in 1870. In particular the drop has accelerated since 1975. The smartest people on the planet now are in SEA, by a small lead, not enough to go all in invest there. + Huge waves of migrants in the west never seen in history. + Aging population in the West and Japan. + Biggest debt ever (and lowest rates, even negative), everywhere almost. + Due to low IQs and tech advances, people have a harder time adapting. People are getting dumber while jobs are requiring more intellect... + End of the communication Kondriatev Cycle. + Crowded planet, Polluted planet, Ressource Exhausted planet. + Possible end of an ERA started in the west with first renaissance (including finance) in north italy, then conquest of the world/new world, tech advances, industrial revolutions, and in this 3rd millenia first few years it went absolutely parabolic, adoption curves are vertical, and everyone thinks it won't ever end (LOL!). Looking VERY similar to Rome. Actually the exact same. Same inflation, same migrant waves, etc. + Very low Testosterone levels in the west also. No babies. Priorities changed. Paradigm shift. Check the new field called biohistory. + Central banks have gotten too much power, and their monetary policies make no sense. + World trying to "cheat" and fast forward the economy, and over consumption of every thing. Just an idiotic mentality.
> Medium Term + Debt not planned on getting better. Here is the ridiculous CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook: cbo.gov/system/files/2019-06/55331-LTBO-2.pdf + As suprising as something that unbelievably dumb is, "people" (disgraceful sub-humans) praise governments that were running during great economic times, and blame those that were around during recessions or depressions. It's so stupid it hurts, it even hurts to have to lower myself to acknowledge this, but things are as they are and what unbelievably stupid sub humans think (if we can call it thinking) has consequences. And the consequence is governments want to postpone recessions and pump the economy up... Plunge protection team is really ridiculous (USA Europe China all have theirs)... + The 90% are getting poorer, the income and wealth gaps are as big or bigger than in 1929. + Of course socialism and facism are getting cool again. Especially socialism. Inequality + much stupider simian beasts... + Price to Earnings at 1929 levels, highest they ever got (apart from 2000 but those were all growth stocks) + Price to GDP (buffet indicator) at highest level... + Bond rates are so dumb. + Social justice insanity, it doesn't even make sense most of the time. + Magic Internet Money ponzi schemes symptom of the problem(s) and absolutely ridiculous.
> Short term + Hong Kong exploded. + Sweden (swedistan they say) going kaboom. + LA.... is full of drug addicts, crime everywhere (criminals get super light sentences), homeless everywhere, ultra high inequality, they have medieval diseases that even india does not have, it's a complete dump full of typhus carrying rats, and trash, I could go on. Complete dump. Ridiculous. + Political divide in the US is so high now... 1/3 of casual citizens and 2/3 experts think a civil war is imminent. + etc... + And this: Q4 is the best period for trading, I will make a separate idea for this, during this week. And September-October is usually the period when the stock market falls.
Here are a few examples:
Black Monday 1987 ==> Oct. 19, 1987 "Black" days before the 20th century ==> Sep/Oct also... I think I made an idea on this a while ago... Not going to look for it. Big crashes and bad things happen in this period very often take my word for it. (This should be known).
> Prediction for the next 5 years * Q1 2018 to mid 2019 was a period of uncertainty (well not if you have been following me, I have been very certain of what was going on). September or October will mark the start of the great depression of the 2020s. Do not expect CNBC to talk about this, or maybe they'll have some guests they consider excentric that claim this, but the "pros" will only be aware the depression started somewhere in 2020 or even 2021, and the mainstream even later than that. In 50 years of course we will trace back the beginning to the next days...
* The indices are just numbers. The master manipulators probably do their best to "keep numbers up" but it will all go down any way. For example if the indices numbers are up DOUBLE but inflation is 500%, they are not really up. They probably just try their hardest to keep numbers up for the sake of having numbers up. But everything collapses regardless. I would not go short with so much really stupid manipulation. Indices fall, Trump gives a call to the central bank and banks "to talk about something else pinky swear" and then numbers go up the next day... Can go down regardless. If the clowns running the show force the numbers to go up they will just keep making things much worse. I am talking about destroying the United States of America in a record short time. But still... I don't see a short... Numbers can be artificially proped up while real things get worse. I only do short term anyway (1 day to 5 weeks). So it's out of my field of expertise anyway... Just too much manipulation and random factors for me. I think in longer terms only buy and hold or get out and wait for a turn is the way to go, speculating in particular short is better shorter term not that interesting long term. Just my opinion.
* Currencies I expect to become much more volatile soon. Yay! Dollar probably won't be a safe haven this time. It is already overpriced since Europe and China have been devaluing their currencies to the limit.
* Cryptocurrencies will be a big hedge against the depression. Nah I'm just kidding they are going to zero of course. Not going to go into details check my crypto ideas + common sense.
* I am not sure about commodities. Gold and Silver go up, Oil down maybe? Agri will be more volatile. Copper down, less is being done, less demand...
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Bonus: Even the Sun is not on our side.
An excerpt: "NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it"
Global Warming and Low Sun activity are maybe going to cancel each other? Right? Right?
There has just been one buyer of stocks since the financial crisis: - Institutions (big pensions, hedge funds...) have been selling 5 to 10% cumulatively of the whole market cap. - Households & the rest of the world are around zero. - Companies buybacks have been buying 20% of the mcap...And pushing prices up...
Profitable company? Psychopath CEO uses the profit this way: - Increases his salary (board of directors is in his pocket) - Throws cash at directors - Does stupid buybacks just to pump the price and make shareholders richer - Spits in workers faces. CEO wages went up 1000%, workers up 10%, inflation up more than 10%.
Wow I wonder where the problem is? Must be patriarchy and white men. No the problem is capitalism. No no no the problem is probably Trump. Has to. Flying saucers maybe? Jews? Again?
Gee what a tought cookie to crack what could it be?
I sound stupid? Well 99.9% of America including politicians are struggling to figure this out. Planet of the apes...
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To be confirmed:
St. Louis Fed Pres. Jim Bullard just admitted on CNBC that since the Fed will be powerless during the next recession, the Fed should do everything it can now to delay that recession for as long as possible.
(Also note that the longer it gets delayed, the worse the recession will be)
DOW to 5k by Feb 2021 .... there are vast resources and sharing will be large global practice. Buy seeds. Don't rely on the resources of government of the metropolises.... move from those heavily armed and hyngry peopled areas. Find a space for chickens, a root garden and a vegetable gaden.. work will be for shelter and food.. the way it was meant to be. I'm anticipating the better part of a decade long depression at the very least, with the later half being the most woeful. The global population will plunge over the next few decades.. I feel a mini ice age.. rather than increasing heat. Jobs will be based around AI engineering, robotics, and humanities.. all else will be taken over including doctors.. surgeons .. tecnology is exponencial ... after DOW at 5k .. opoortunities should efinately be China, Inda.. Africa.. South America ... the western world.. North America .. Europe will take significantly longer to recover .. China and idia will lead the world out. ( It's not the most armed nation, it's the nations most technically advanced that will thrive ) Money will move to cryptography .. ultimately Bitcoin or and IMF basket of State Cryptos like the new Chinese Crypto set to launch November. The next 3 generations will not give up the value of the tangable metals.. gold / silver .. they are not being replaced by Bitcoin. Bitcoin will be gold.. Monero "SENSORSHIP RESISTANCE" will become the most valued asset. Humanity will have to integrate with machine if we are to survive AI and the age of algorithm, where mathematics run our food supply and environment.. I trust man is smart enough to mine the consciousness of the species in order to allow for those valuable, unquantatable things such as time, and love, and creativity, and not so much on seeing humans as milking machines to be advertised to to consume and make profits rise and blah blah ... yup.. we're in for different days .. out children exponentially so and so fourth. There is no fear for those who are awake and prepared.. Fortune favors the prepared... NEXT
@mboody1980, You're a young man. You haven't lived long enough, or read enough history. It doesn't matter which market you're in. If you're involved with any product that is based on the fractional reserve banking, you're reKt. All it's going to take is for the wrong Jenga block to be pulled, and credit will stop. Try living a month without your credit card. . the global supply chain will seize up for a LONG time. Best stock up on medications, because that will be the first to diminish. Most real estate will lose 40% of it's value.. Dow, S&P, Nasdaq will lose 80% of their value. Oil is dead .. Nat Gas is dead. Deutche Bank is dead. ETFs, Bonds.... dead dead dead ... The start of this crash window is now for another 18 months ... The world will lower interest rates to zero and NEGATIVE interest rates beyond ... All fiat will the enter a race to the bottom. (who can devalue their currency the fastest) The depression will last between 3 and 30 years with my best guess being around 7 years. The second half of this depression will be nasty, heartbreaking, and grueling .... Own physical metals and intermediate gold miner stocks from this point on. Forget the US dollar milkshake theory, unless you' really good with trading fiat. (might want to dabble with the Euro short term if you're aplayer) Maybe dabble with a bit of Bitcoin or Ethereum crypto. One of the saving graces of what's about to occur is that America and Europe have vast products.. there are chainsaws, glass, and generators everywhere. Get to a place where you can live off the the land for a spell.. have chickens... plant seeds.. and GET out of the cities.. my goodness man.. that's the last place anyone will want to be.... anyway ... blah blah ..
PaulDeep19131
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This premise is bang-on: I have been discussing this for the past 6 months. There is no question we are in a bubble and its impossible for unintelligent people whom are ignorant to geopolitical and monetary policy to acknowledge. Of course as you stated, good-luck looking to the media and noob "portfolio manager experts" for any real knowledge on this.
There is no question the market will begin to tank late 2019 or sometime in 2020 which will likely lead to Trump not being re-elected. The premonition that will settle next summer when Trump could/will lose will send the stock market even further down. Money will be printed galore and the DXY will tank to save the stock market and try to mitigate public fear. There's no question all the indices will lose at-least 50% from their ATH levels in the 2020-2022 period.
It will take a little bit of time for the markets to drop significantly however, as Trump will continue to prop up fake-news "trade talks" to get the algo bots to bounce off resistance levels and trap bulls. No one should be "long" in equities or stocks at this point. Swing trade for fast profit and long the hell out of Gold, Silver and Platinum.
I said this many times already: while the past decade will be known as the epic stock market bubble of soaring valuations and ridiculous cheap money, the next decade from 2020 will be the epic return in a parabolic way for precious metals, particularly, Gold, Silver and Platinum.
- zSplit
ryder_ryder
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very thorough - i think LA is the best representation of how divided the US society has become. Waiting patiently for everything to fall...but not yet, not yet
nsprph
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@avayingyuliu, Gladiator quote?
BMLemon
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Welcome back! I expect a good recession, SPX to 1800 (ish) but a few decades of positive movement from there. It'll be okay, I've drank some rum and feel much better now. I recommend it.
M5AV
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Very thorough and well done. Much appreciated.
chikoritathelegend
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You nailed the 2020 market crash, but unfortunately the market is now making a V. If this prediction were true, we will be living in the longest dead cat bounce.
"What if you wanted to go to bearish zone, but investors said: bearish zone is closed"