It's looking for a trough in weeks/months for a big bounce up. One final leg down on "Weekly" to wrap things up.! Time + Structure is key here. Seasonality is bullish till May, but structurally looks like another low.! Or this analysis is basically wrong.!
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Monthly perspective vs weekly up.!
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Zoom in, 2 false break downs.!
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This needs to hold up for BABA to go up.!
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We have already broken : (Not good for NIO + BABA) 1/ Triangle. 2/ Channel 3/ Trend lines
Good news, is that we are in oversold territory.! ( Good for NIO & BABA)
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Technically a dream land for the Bulls, fundamentally something else.!
- Ever probable, applicable & else absolute.!
1/ Textbook 5 waves down + Seasonality Vs Fundamentals + Geopolitical issues 2/ Weekly RSI Diver .! SSEC vs SPX.!
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W1 is (-14%) VS 9-14%) W5
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- Ever probable, applicable & else absolute.!
1/ Unless WW 3 starts, we start 1929 recession, geopolitical issues arise and we totally stop rhythming with the past + 40 Years or so since 1992-2023 we are having a major trough a "Generational" one.
2/ With a risk down of (-3%)-(-7%) from this week till April of 2024 .!
3/ I am using SPX/SSEC'S MACD highest reading, represented here with Blue lines.!
4/ 8 signals out there since 1992 .!
5/ The move is between +39% up to +300% with in 15 weeks or 129 Days.!
Vortex Indicator's MACD is suggesting that we are in the final stages of this move, with a (-4%)(-5%) (-9%) risk down.! We are in the process of "Trough Making".!
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Vortex Indicator's MACD "V-" is suggesting that we are in the final stages of this move, with a (-4%)- (-13%) risk down.! We are in the process of "Trough Making".!
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- Regular MACD'S Divergence with price has an outstanding bullish moves, ranging between +15% up to 485% if and only if we hold this divergence.!
- August 2013 is quite strong fractal.!
- If ever probable, applicable & all else absolute.!
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Monthly RSI @ 38 if and only if applicable, probable and all else absolute has a "Trough Making " in progress structure. With down risk in RED and Bullish moves are in Green.
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Closest fractal is this on Monthly which was followed by a +36% Bullish move then major lower low .! 2002-2003 .!
- If and only if applicable, probable and all else absolute
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Could not fit both in one idea.! "Present"
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2002-2003
2023
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Is it a "Trough making " in progress ?
Or this time it's different and we crash big time.!
Technical analysis vs Geopolitical + fundamentals
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For BABA and NIO holders...
As time passes #4 & # 2 : 1/ Similar RSI. 2/ Similar wave structs 3 troughs(Thus far). 3/ -24 & -41% are also one of the differences.! 4/ SM Averages are the in total different positions .!
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RSI OF RSI is still hanging on it's diver, will it be invalidated or no yet to be "Observed"
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*** If and only if applicable, probable and all else absolute ***
The RSI on Monthly is entering a historic buying area a "Generational one". The next (-10%) -(-25%) in Q1 +Q2 of 2024 is the max risk if we rhythm or this TA is basically wrong & Geopolitics runs the show .!
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Up dating a previous idea... Entering risk box soon or not ?
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SPX/SSEC
Up dating our MACD'S High readings study:
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*** If and only if applicable, probable and all else absolute *** January- March of 2024 is a major trough land for the SSEC, or not and this MACD'S analysis is wrong.!
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Same idea on a weekly chart...
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Updating 230 Monthly SMA...
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Will we gap down or not in February ? To make one big "Bear tap" .!
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RSI'S Readings VS Percentage decline from last major top .!
- Or its a different move this time around.! - Ever probable, applicable and all else absolute.!
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Updating...
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Some observations, food for thought .! Divers between EEM and SSEC .!
- BABA and NIO holders ....
- Big moves were missed big time.! - Not clear to me how to use these so called related instruments together.!
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Correlation between EEM/SSEC and BABA.!
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Updating with RSI + MACD
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EEM'S ETF is printing the lowest RSI reading with the highest trough out there .!
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RED Circles:
- 2015 BABA leads by 6 Months - 2019 BABA leads by 15 Months - 2023 BABA leads by 15 Months ( Or we get a bull's trap.!) "False signal .!
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Updating.. One signal is out of service .! These divers, in the past, resulted in +24% Bullish move.!
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1st major support area has been achieved.!
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Updating... We have exceeded one of our bearish targets already.!
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Updating... Our risk model for BABA + NIO holders is 2ed to July of 1994, with 20% bearish steam in it within 60-90 Days if ever applicable, probable and all else absolute.!
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Updating the Monthly's RSI... Past...
Present with risk down off (-8%) in 60 Days. - If ever applicable, probable and all else absolute.!
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The big difference here for BABA and NIO holders is we are printing this at a higher price .!
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EEM is printing a rare signal as such on the chart.!
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This is the complete opposite of the previous idea.!