Some time ago we have talked about EUR COT reports. Swing traders should focus on taking sell signals. Commercials are short this market, while retailers are heavily buying. We saw almost the same in 2018 before a big decline in EUR. I believe the story repeats. However, we don’t have a good entry yet. I have a feeling price will make false breakup before the trend starts. But the market doesn’t have to follow my feelings )) Besides, the evaluation index shows EUR is overvalued. Short-term traders can continue to trade in the range with tight stop loss. But our main focus is on taking sell signals, like swing failure, etc. Many data will be released the coming week, including retail sales, Empire State, Philadelphia Fed, and June University of Michigan consumer sentiment reports scheduled along with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. Possibly it will be driving power to break out of the range. We have to monitor COVID cases in the USA and government response to it. At the moment it is one of the most important fundamental factors for the American dollar and it will have an impact on EUR.


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