$AA Rising Wedge, chance for put then call profit

NYSE:AA   Alcoa Corporation
AA forming a rising wedge which is usually bearish . I set an alert to let me know if it breaks down out of the rising wedge . If it breaks down, it'll first "hook" down and up quickly to confirm resistance and try to rise again. If it fails, it will "go" quickly downward to the next support level at ~25$ for a 33% gain on a short, more for a put option. Once it finds support and begins to reverse upward, there's a chance for a 64% gain on it's way to $37 (more for a call option).
Comment: Profit on the put, or downswing, was a little off if you actually buy it when it confirms the downtrend at around $33. The profit would actually be around 28%.
Comment: AA tried breaking up out of the rising wedge but failed. It then gapped down and had a high volume red candle. Today is verifying the movement but since I'm a little cautious in this current market, I may wait one more day for verification of a downtrend.