Today we will speak about ALCOA: In March, we posted the expected movement of the current trend (Link to related ideas). After 2 months, the price has already reached a major Resistance zone that has been working since 2010
Now we are asking the question. What's next?
To answer this, we will use the previous price information we have to develop possible paths for the price to take.
SCENARIO 1 (Bearish): The price is not able to make a clean break out of the resistance zone, and we have a Correction or the beginning of a new bear market. In this situation, we should expect a -20% movement between 100 and 150 days. IF the price cannot keep falling, we should be open to the idea that the correction was a break before the breakout of the resistance zone. Like the scenario, we saw between 2018 and 2018.
However, if the price keeps falling below the previous parameters, we may think that a new bearish trend will start with the first target at 22.20
SCENARIO 2 (Bullish): The price makes a clean breakout of the resistance zone reaching at least 45USD a share. IF that scenario happens, we will be waiting for a "Throwback," which is a retest of a broken level or structure, and the target for that movement will go from 57 to 61.
How to use this information): The main idea about creating possible paths is to start thinking about how you would trade certain assets IF the price reaches all your parameters. That allows you to do it calmly and professionally without being moved by your emotions. Patience is a great wealth creator.
Aluminum though closing yesterday barely above critical support 2430 (correction) is now trading beneath, if the close is below that will mean wave Y, an upward correction, completed at 2549.75. AA & CENX both gap down yesterday. If the 2430 level isn't regained then these stocks have seen their highs and are heading much lower.
pechi123
⋅
Seems like aluminum is about to confirm a major top if it closes decisively under 3430.