Both large daily bars to recent high (52.86) have been violated. The upward correction failed at Fibonacci 23.6% in Aluminum (tad above 50% in AA against 57.57) that followed an exhaustion gap up on 10/15 the middle of month (3 day period) where high (10/18), and lows are often seen (also the first 3 trading days of the month). Meaning that wave 1 down is still in progress, not being able to surpass 23.6% in Ai, to much lower levels. A significant top has been seen off the 2020 lows, along with Zinc, are the 2 base metals first to put in significant multi-year, if not decades tops. Eventually wave 1 down of 5 will bottom (larger upward correction), a selling opportunity will be offered but from lower levels. In the meantime, the past 2 trading sessions have seen 2 gap downs (bearish), when 45.60 (low before gap up) in AA gives way, there should be a thrust down due to the multitude of stop orders.
pechi123
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AA tracks the physical commodity, bottomed in March 2020 when most commodities (and equities bottomed), and recently topped together on 10/18. Aluminum was in a large 3 wave rally against the 2007 high making this a countertrend move that already had 9 waves, a variation of a 5 wave structure, the fall from the high is significant enough to conclude the Aluminum has topped for many years to come, only a move above the 61.8% of the decline @ 2932.78 (basis the continuation contract) will repair the damage done to the price structure, that is far away from current price. Since nothing goes straight down (though recently it has), eventually it comes to a place where a countertrend rally is due, this has transpired over the past few days along with AA, I view the rally in AA as a countertrend rally, it may or may not make new highs, or is currently topping under the 10/18 high , since the stock indices are in a 5th wave of 5 off the 2020 lows, a significant top is forthcoming. AA found support at a previous 4th wave, it also gapped up on 11/11, it may make a slight new high under the 2018 high 62.35, but likely will collapse thereafter. Notice that the 4/19/18 high, an island top, a bearish formation. Any reversal that closes the gap from 11/11-11/10/21 will be evidence a very important top is at hand. The rally off the low in Aluminum has tagged only the .236 Fibonacci level of the decline and may come up to the .382 level before it falls to new lows.