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Long

Contrarian Long AAL Because Bull Wedge

NASDAQ:AAL   AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC
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1
That's the extent of my analysis here.

Price target picked by a volume weighted average, time target picked based on some historical bull wedge patterns on other stocks.
Trade active: Nasty day today; watching for a good test of the bottom of the wedge between 37.00 and 36.75.
Comment: We've seen a lot more volume on big down moves than we have for up moves the past two months. However, the magnitude of that down volume is getting weak. Today we're on pace for about the same volume for this down move as we had last time (2018-06-22), but not much more than that.

I think that decrease in volume with falling prices is a key part of a bull wedge, and can be interpreted as the "bears" losing steam or confidence. Naturally there's someone on the other side of every trade, so that interpretation isn't perfect.
Comment: Earnings this Thursday! I'm holding my long through earnings, haven't liquidated anything yet. I'm still optimistic about the trade.
Comment: Pop!
Comment: I'm putting in partial sells of my calls here and there at highish limit prices. Got hit a little bit already, will keep being greedy and eventually liquidate this way.
Trade closed: target reached: I'm out! Got 9.4% ROI. I was greedy, managed to sell a third at the top but waited for better without a great reason to expect it. Sold the rest much lower, today.

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