AAPL Earning: Analysis using Citigroup's study

BATS:AAPL   Apple Inc
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Expectation of AAPL's earning based on Citigroup's study...
The study is out of (i.e. this is modeled on) Citigroup's Quantitative Research Group, which showed that one of the best predictors of an earnings beat is a stock's one-month performance going into the ER. I used the 4 weeks performance prior to the ER for analysis. This was compared to 3 or 4 weeks stock price after the ER (based on the monthly OpEx).
I thought to test out this thesis on above model.
The top is the ER data with Street's estimates and 1 week gain (week of the ER)
The middle of the weekly chart. The purple box is the 4 week gain before the ER; followed by green box, the 3-4 week stock movement following the ER (until the monthly OpEx).

At the bottom, 2 arrows with each ER. First arrow is the direction of movement 4 weeks leading to ER, the 2nd arrow is the direction of stock movement following the ER.

- Based on last 7 earning cycles, there is good correlation (exception is 2013 Q2 ER).
- Movement after the ER tends to be greater in magnitude comparing to month leading to ER (exception is 2013 Q2 ER)
- This would suggest that Monthly option play might be more profitable and less risky than the weeklies. The direction of stock 1 month leading to ER does seem be predictive.
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