Well, the market is all doom and gloom these days, and tariff talks don't seem to be helping matters much. Looking at AAPL here, but it's worth mentioning that this current movement is market-wide and not something we can blame on Tim Cook and his gang. A good ER could help, but I don't think AAPL can start heading back up until there is a change in the bigger picture. So here is what I'm seeing:
- Starting with the daily chart (not shown), I see the trend just starting to head South, into a bearish movement. - Looking at Linear Regression on the monthly chart shows that we have reached the peak of the channel we've been following for the last 5-6 years. - Based on similar peaks in the channel, the correction has been roughly a $45 move over an 11 month period - Based on the angle of the correction line, the average number of bars, the average price movement and the bottom of the regression channel, that puts our price target at $134 by January 2019
IMPORTANT NOTES - First, I'm a long term believer in AAPL and their products. I certainly don't think this is the top for them, and that they will eventually turn around and go much higher - The $134 PT is just a target. I don't truly believe we will hit that mark. What I do think is that we will follow this path until something changes, and I will plan my trades accordingly - I don't think it will take a straight path down. I believe there will be scalp and swing opportunities along the way. - I will play some long positions on smaller timeframes, but with very tight stops, while most of my plans will be for short positions. - This is suppression from outside forces and AAPL is still very strong as a company. When that suppression is relieved, I believe MMs will get back in very quickly, so always have some dry powder on hand
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With more tariff news, this mornings drop puts us back into long term bearish territory. As I have said previously, most of my quick plays will be short positions, but I'll scalp call options when opportunities present. If we stay below $166 for a few days, I'll consider longer term short positions.
Tracks
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Well, it seems the South Korea tariff deal over the weekend has bolstered confidence in the overall market. Notice that most down stocks shot up this morning. Due to this, I obviously didn't enter any short positions. So this is where we are at:
- Back above $166 for now, so I'm viewing this as a retracement before further upward movement at this point.
- I'll watch daily and hourly charts for indications of direction for longer plays
- Taking scalp opportunities intraday (5 and 15min charts) as they present. Grabbed a couple of nice CALL scalps at open already.
OptionsPlayers
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Nice work Tracks!
Tracks
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Meant to add one more thing:
- $166 was the range I have been watching for the break. The last few months, the price has been hammering that range trying to break below. If we get back above that, I'll consider the current movement just a retracement.