Look for AAPL to leave the channel after failing 568.50. If it makes it into that huge gap around 480 and sets up correctly should be a good long there to test its all time high after it makes it back thru the 568.50
Comments
vitto733
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this chart has so much fantastic info on it. amazing how the path you plotted was respected on the support. As you say Price has memory.
Kazonomics
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As noted the 568.50 level rejected AAPL and sent it to the bottom of the rising channel. Market also showing some selling in many big names. Time to watch if it snaps out of the channel and heads to the target area of 480-485.
**Was asked on twitter why I would call a pull back for the new year in light of China News....as I will always state news is for junkies....I didn't get that memo first so I do not care and it had no consideration in my TA. Technical Analysis is for trading / Funnymentals is for value investors who don't mind not having price perfection in their entries and wait for the market to realize their model's value. -I do not do that- That isn't trading.
"Funnymentals" can hurt you when trying to be an objective trader by fostering biases. The big story is on this chart already. Trading is all about supply and demand. Keep it simple... Keep your eyes on the channel support......If you are a trader then just trade what you see. Be willing to do whatever the chart tells you that you need to do. If APPLE holds the channel and the market turns up be just as ready to buy it as you would if price action falters.
If it helps I do read the news but its not part of my trading decisions. This is the only thing that crossed my mind about Apple in December about "FUNNYMENTALS": -
What I do know is price has run in a single leg straight from 389-568 -- That's a 46% increase to the market cap of one of the biggest tech blue chip tech companies on Earth in just 6 months....Something tells me the person who did get the memo about the China deal got it a hell of lot earlier than any of the common folk! Valuation would probably reflect this if July or June 2013 was when the knowledge of the deal was known to inside market, but I'm just speculating on that. Market penetration and expected growth rates are still very much unknown along with what will change now that the subsidy game is under attack. These things along with many other factors for valuation will become more clear only after launch. Forward valuations are subject to multiple revisions. Can AAPL break its all time high when the value of China added is fully realized in time? Answer is probably yes but at this moment I do not know and could not possibly dream of using that information or lack there of to trade this stock for the next 2-5 days.
P.S. Do not try to time the market with news you will lose a small fortune.....or a large one if your already loaded!
Kazonomics
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Perfect rejection on the gap resistance level of 568.50 and breakdown of the channel. Apple closing in on 480-485 area. If you haven't already take some profits and reduce your position by at least 50%. Hope everybody got paid!!
**I hope this drives home the point about news....China Mobile or whatever was out at the time never mattered. Unless you got the memo 1st disregard it or it will create a bias that will hurt objective TA. We are not value investors so the news stream never played a roll in this call. Trade the price, price is the only thing that will pay you**