jangseohee
Short

Human emotion diagnosis

NASDAQ:AAPL   APPLE INC
158 3 3
I ask myself this question, Do i really need iPhone 6? I need it because i want to be accepted by my peers, afraid of losing out or to fill my internal void of instant gratification?
Be it the latest model in Samsung galaxy/iphone, lots of people sacrifice their sleep to queue up overnight just to make business richer.
iPhone surely will have another record sales in their next earning.. but ironically the monthly charts shows a MACD bearish divergence which serve as a serious warning.
As can be seen from my rainbow of EMAs, whenever the EMAs diverge far apart and peak out in Euphoria, major correction follows. The opposite applies to price sink in Despair, price rebounds sharply.
So, do not be too attached to Apple             because it is a good stock .
A leap year Jan 2017 put option will be my investment :-)
pdiddy.pablo
2 years ago
I think you are making the mistake of seeing what you want to see, which is easy to do with charting. It rode the upper moving average (red area on your chart) all the way from 2003 to 2009, and again from 2010 to 2013. Thats a long term bull move of 3-6 years each time. We are only about a year into this bull run (by your definition of major euphoria, apple stayed in "major euphoria" for up to 6 years on prior bull runs). The big pull backs only lasted about a year each since 2003. Also I think looking at the macd divergence is misleading. For one it is just recently turning positive on the long term chart. I also think a logarithmic chart makes more sense (ie look at prior to 2007, the macd means nothing because of the narrow range).

You sound like an android fanboy using emotion instead of logic for your other reasoning. Who cares why people buy apple. They are buying it at record rates and 25% of the recent record sales were android users switching to apple. I agree with the recent article stating apple is in a super cycle (bull run started by release of first ipod, first iphone, and first ipad).

Other bullish arguements. They have record sales, record income, buying back shares at every drop, great dividend, rumor of a large ipad "pro", partner with intel for business apps, upgraded music service probably in the works with beats partnership, potential for iwatch to sell well (despite your probably android based opinion the iwatch will sell like crazy).

I think historically shorting apple has been very risky. This bull run could last at a min one more year and as much as 5 more. You sure you are entering your puts at the right time? miss timing options can be very detrimental =)

The only negative right now is the overall market is overbought. A pull back in the market would mean a pull back for apple.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
gotta use smaller TF to see what happen near the top
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jangseohee
2 years ago
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