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holeyprofit
Mar 19, 2024 1:45 PM

Good setup for a drop of over 10% in AAPL  Short

Apple Inc.NASDAQ

Description

AAPL trades on a pending bullish butterfly. Although this is by default a bullish pattern the failure of a bullish butterfly almost always leads to capitulation to the following fibs.

The local action we have on AAPL is not typically what we see in the low of a bullish reversal which makes me inclined to speculate on a sharp drop on the failure of the bull pattern.

Trade active

Long 150 - 160 puts.

Comment

So close to making the support break now.

Let's see how it goes.

Comment

I think this is the break being made in AAPL.
Comments
Aluminiumati
Wait till he disclosed his next earnings and shows he’s sold more than 10%.
Aluminiumati
Agreed. Looks weak. Buffer just relentless selling more than 10%. Every rally been a selling opportunity.
seanimize
@Aluminiumati, Buffet's position was a "trim" he reduced his position by a 1% in Dec, because Apple had bought 2.3% of its shares back, increasing everyone's exposure to Apple by giving them a larger share of the remaining pie. Buffett trimmed the position to bring it back to 50% of his portfolio. You read that right... Apple is 50% of Buffet's public portfolio.
sreenageshu
Are we still bearish on apple with the closing it gave today "176.08" ?????? Please help me understand
holeyprofit
@sreenageshu, Yeah still short. We need a bit of tolerance for range/bull traps. Will probably post an update on this when we see how we open.
amaloyz
i just sold my call scalp, apple is weak, i felt that too. sold at peak today, watching if 173 breaks for puts
actionsetter
What puts did you buy?
holeyprofit
@actionsetter, 150 - 160 strike scattered over a couple weeks to 6 weeks. I think it's possible the move will happen quickly but timing is always tricky since the market can put in a bunch of candles sideways doing nothing.

If and when the break comes, it should be strong. So I have some short dated ones for high RR and I have longer dated one so I get paid if I am right but imperfect.
actionsetter
@holeyprofit oh ok. Thank you for explaining.
mindfulnessmeditation777
what level does it need to break to negate the bullish butterfly?
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