Apple earnings on 5/4/23

Apple earnings are on 5/4/23 at 4:30pm. Apple (AAPL) Q2 March 2023 consensus earnings estimate is 1.44 per share on revenue of 92.94 billion. The same quarter a year ago AAPL made 1.54 per share on revenue of 97.28 billion.

Q2 March 2023 Consensus:
PE = 28.8
EPS = 1.44
Revenue = 92.94 B

Apple (AAPL) reported Q1 December 2022 earnings of 1.88 per share on revenue of 117.2 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was 1.93 per share on revenue of 122.1 billion. Revenue fell 5.5% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Q1 December 2022 Results:
PE = 25.8
EPS = 1.88
Revenue = 117.2 B
Cash = 30.22 B
Debt = 99.63 B
Assets = 128.78 B
Liabilities = 137.29

I'm posting this as a short with a 10% share hedge idea going into earnings. By using a collar strategy to hold 90% of shares and 10% of shares hedged. A collar is often used for downside insurance. Implied volatility often results in IV crush after earnings if the share price does not exceed the options premium. For example: with 1000 shares held, 1 options contract equals 10% or 100 shares.

With a wide range collar strategy sell 7/21 expiry 150 call simultaneously buy 7/21 expiry 190 put. The upside / downside, risk : reward = 10% : 20% for this options wide range collar strategy. So essentially, by using the collateral value of 10% shares, it equals 20% downside risk insurance for all 1000 shares for 3 months. If AAPL share price exceeds 170 after earnings, it only takes a +11% upside move to 189 / share of 900 shares to have the same share value as 1000 shares had at 170 / share.

*options use 100x leverage you could lose everything*

There are many types of options trading strategies and positions, simple to sophisticated & hybrids. I group them into theta, delta or mix strategies and bull, bear or neutral positions. There's a buy side and sell side to every trade. If you check the open interest (OI), you can see how liquid it is. Check how wide the bid vs ask spread is.

Theta:
iron condor
iron fly
covered call
cash secured put
calendar spread
collar

Delta:
call
put
straddle
strangle
debit spread
credit spread

Bull:
call
put credit spread
call debit spread
cash secured put

Bear:
put
call credit spread
put debit spread
covered call

Neutral:
straddle
strangle
iron condor
iron fly
collar (often used for downside insurance)
calendar spread (short or long time)

Options important variables:
Strike = share price
itm, atm, otm = strike position
Expiry = Date of expiration
Value = H, L & Mark
Liquidity = bid vs ask spread
Direction = put or call
OI = open interest
V = volume
IV = implied volatility
Delta = price
Theta = time
Vega = volatility
Gamma = momentum

Comment:

AAPL options data:

5/5 expiry
Put Volume Total 44,024
Call Volume Total 96,946
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.45
Put Open Interest Total 139,519
Call Open Interest Total 173,449
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.80
Highest Volume call strike 175 / 24,940
Highest Volume put strike 167.5 / 12,183

5/19 expiry
Put Volume Total 32,222
Call Volume Total 25,727
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.25
Put Open Interest Total 524,043
Call Open Interest Total 373,525
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.40

6/16 expiry
Put Volume Total 11,498
Call Volume Total 8,760
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.31
Put Open Interest Total 815,092
Call Open Interest Total 640,445
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.27

7/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 2,462
Call Volume Total 4,440
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.55
Put Open Interest Total 215,553
Call Open Interest Total 195,729
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.10

Comment:

AAPL technicals: 1 day chart (16hr ext) with pi RSI, Triangular Trend Channel ATR, Fibonacci MAI & VolumeFlow indicators.

AAPL moving averages:
SMA200 = 150.88
SMA50 = 157.12

VWMA20 TTCATR levels:
breakout = 180.99
R3 = 177.01
R2 = 173.03
R1 = 169.05
pivot = 165.08
S1 = 161.10
S2 = 157.12
S3 = 153.13
breakdown = 149.17

Comment:

AAPL technicals update before earnings today 5/4 at 4:30pm:
1 day chart (16hr ext), 2 year view, with pi RSI, Triangular Trend Channel ATR, Fibonacci MAI & VolumeFlow indicators.

AAPL moving averages:
SMA200 = 151.07
SMA50 = 158.62

VWMA20 TTCATR levels:
breakout = 181.31
R3 = 177.33
R2 = 173.31
R1 = 169.29
pivot = 165.27
S1 = 161.25
S2 = 157.23
S3 = 153.21
breakdown = 149.19

Comment:

AAPL options data update before earnings today 5/4 at 4:30pm:

5/5 expiry
Put Volume Total 93,855
Call Volume Total 94,566
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.99
Put Open Interest Total 184,730
Call Open Interest Total 238,357
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.78
Highest Volume call strike 170 / 20,015
Highest Volume put strike 157.5 / 16,189

5/19 expiry
Put Volume Total 25,335
Call Volume Total 35,982
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.70
Put Open Interest Total 546,982
Call Open Interest Total 458,832
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.19

6/16 expiry
Put Volume Total 16,210
Call Volume Total 10,110
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.60
Put Open Interest Total 839,251
Call Open Interest Total 642,468
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.31

7/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 9,128
Call Volume Total 6,490
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.41
Put Open Interest Total 228,217
Call Open Interest Total 214,522
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.06

Comment:

CUPERTINO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2023 second quarter ended April 1, 2023. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $94.8 billion, down 3 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.52, unchanged year over year.

Q2 March 2023 =
Consensus:
EPS = 1.44
Revenue = 92.94 B
Results:
EPS = 1.52
Revenue = 94.8 B

Comment:

AAPL options data update post earnings today 5/5 at 3:30pm:

5/19 expiry
Put Volume Total 142,492
Call Volume Total 104,733
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.36
Put Open Interest Total 570,677
Call Open Interest Total 466,846
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.22
Highest Volume call strike 175 / 22,883
Highest Volume put strike 155 / 34,893

6/16 expiry
Put Volume Total 98,945
Call Volume Total 75,348
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.31
Put Open Interest Total 848,438
Call Open Interest Total 651,699
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.30

7/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 42,883
Call Volume Total 36,324
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.18
Put Open Interest Total 231,315
Call Open Interest Total 217,746
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.06

Comment:

6/1/23 AAPL update:
Will AAPL get to 182.86 to become the world's only 3 trillion dollar market cap company? Or is 180 a fantastic short entry? I'd say both are true, but it all depends on the timing.