Back in January 29th, 2014, I offered a moderate-probability forecast, namely: "TG-1 = 474 - 24 JAN 2014". As the weeks went on, a cautionary overhead was offered as 565.79/565.84, and in the last technical commentary, I added a high-probability target defined as "TG-1 = 566.16 - 27 MAR 2014", which in fact was hit past its forecast mark.
What remains of the chart at this point is simply a very price action that fell short of breaking above and closing above its historical high-mark @ 575.14. Question, really, is: Is it ever going to?
So soon from the recent explosive price action, I like to wait and see, as consolidation typically ensue at such a close level from a structural level. If I were to opine without any technical data, I would simply feed you garbage, and offer myself a chance to stray away from my usual stick-to-the-data premise.
However, fundamentals are worth taking into consideration here. With significant aggregate market data softening, I would venture to say that bears are likely to weigh on price at these levels, whereas bulls would have to play against the company's internal fundamental data being already discounted, against a broader market fundamental data that is turning increasingly for markets across the globe - Here for instance, I described a critical attainment level in price seen in the $NAS100, worth heeding:
With this short note, I will leave you to consider the fundamental news coming out of China, as well as monetary decision made by the Fed in terms of rate, and most importantly, the rising yields in benchmark treasuries (10-year in particular, relative to 30-year terms for instance, or even shorter terms relative to the 10-year), as these can quite precisely define the directional character of an uneasy market sentiment, much like the light at the end of a long, dark tunnel can instead announce an oncoming devastating freight train. So, yes, my directional bias has remained based on broad fundamental basis, as well as the initial predictive analysis offered in the prior three AAPL charts. Plus, there is that lingering uneasy question, whether such an artificial cash-fed market nourished by ultra-rich foods can really sustained such a fall upwards, because quite frankly, this remains a market of reversed physical properties.
I will provide a smarter and more objective analysis once the current consolidation moves outside of the cautionary values I had given in the past.
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