REPUBLISHING - So far - Sort of "on target" - I suppose the issue from here is to decide what to do before earnings which are on the 20th with expectations of $1.30 (as of Saturday, 10/11/2014). I'd suggest having no positions as of Friday - 10/17/2014. Tim
"""" Apple has been trending very well the entire way up in this rally. Lately, however, the market is waiting for sales from the new iPhone6, which goes on sale today 9/19/2014.
Because the market is holding here, waiting for news, the chart is also telling us that buyers are laying in wait down at the 14-day time zone at 95+ which I have labeled "BUYERS".
On the sell side, sellers are laying in wait at the 103-104 where I have labeled "SELLERS". AAPL should have returned back to the high.
I think the way this chart resolves itself is to move back and forth between the two levels a couple of times.
Tim 9/19/2014 10:07AM EST 101.69.
SS 101.69 - target 96. BUY @ 96 - target 102. SS @ 102 - target 96.
If all three are winners without more than $2 in pain from any trade entry, then what will be my prize?? '''''''''''''''''''''
Comments
timwest
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$96 - covered - thank you -
IvanLabrie
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Spot on, missed this one.
A-shot
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Hm, Apple performed well in this flood of red days. Anything special holds you from holding through? or just general market feeling and the ER risk is too high? So far iphone 6 seems to have not bad reviews.
timwest
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Yes, people are hiding in AAPL. Earnings aren't far away either. People are also hiding in AAPL because Icahn is pushing for them to do buybacks - and they responded last time and did what he suggested. But I don't think they will this time since their capital is a bit more precious now compared to before when they had far more cash and fewer liabilities. You don't just start a dividend and then not increase it, and Apple still has a lot of competition. Did you see Barron's this weekend on how cheap Samsung is (relative to Apple?). I think a large group of investors will be looking at swapping their Apple shares for Samsung. Samsung is at a fraction sales (PSR<1) while Apple trades at multiples of sales (PSR >3) = which puts AAPL at 6 times the price. Essentially, Apple is more expensive because Apple is far more profitable. So, lots of crosscurrents for sure. I do watch the relative action in the stock versus the market. That is always a good place to start your analysis.
A-shot
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Samsung is indeed a safe bet, and it even shakes Micron Technologys' position. Tsla getting hit, FB is overbought comparing to the markets (is it me, or you stopped posting FB chants? i thought you were bit more prejudiced on it last time, but it has been a while :) ). I do feel that with a continued market sell-off, apple will give in. Just like Saudi Arabia - it had no reason to dive 6% on Sunday, only because other indices did. Im currently trying to see if there is a market out there that is outperforming this whole slump - it still feels bad as every country is enjoying the dive now.
timwest
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I have been quiet on FB - waiting for the chart to set up again. At least my disdain for PCLN has panned out. Extremely overvalued and rolled over. Thanks for remembering that I've panned FB at least a few times.
A-shot
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I have no offense, and meant no offense :) i thought you had good points myself and sold it too soon on my own decision that coincided with yours. But after i've scanned the charts and studied them, i noticed an extremely great ability to predict tesla and that FB is going the other ways. But, with all due respect to ...fb, i feel that it cannot evade your views - one day it will get pummeled. As Lewis Black says "its air, it has nothing under neath to sell if it fails in future"
A-shot
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plus...the whatsapp deal...don't get me started....
timwest
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No offense taken on FB. I've lost money shorting FB so far this year. And yes, it is a greater-fool game. Stock shares are voting instruments in the short term, and weighing instruments in the long run.