AAPL short term oversold, long term trend turned down

1155 5 14
For the bold and brave, go long here 120.07 last, 118 stop, for a rally to 124-126 where long term sellers are bailing out.

If we re-test 124-126, we want to get short and look for a retest of the lows at 120-113.

Earnings are due in 11 days and you can see that AAPL             tends to move a lot on earnings reporting days.

The long term trend is when the proprietary indicator of trend I call "Range-Movement or RgMov" hits a 2-month high or low. The indicator doesn't flip often and usually leads price. The bottom in early 2013 took a couple of attempts to get it going, so the same may happen here. The pattern of many indicators that give you big winning trades is that you often are right only about 25% of the time. 25% doesn't sound like a great batting average, but if the winners are big enough, then it is good enough.

Decide for yourself. I feel it is interesting to note how AAPL             peaked right at the 132 level where it reported earnings last quarter and it retested that level before the sellers came back out again.

I imagine many will be looking at the trendline in AAPL             and getting nervous, so in the short term I want to look for a rally back up to resistance to stop out any momentum traders and trendline traders who are short this stock here.


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timwest vinitpatil2007
I have entered my full short position here and if I don't see a break under a previous day's low in the next 2 days, I may have to just bank my loss.
+2 Reply
What is SL for this trade?
how did you know that it was going to turn downward?? It couldnt it just have shot back up like it did in the others??
Almost to the 124 target in one day. Exiting longs here and going short. Will start with half right here near 124, and will save 1/4 for 125 and 1/4 for 126 in the coming days.
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