I continue to say that the bull run in Apple will soon be finished. The divergence between the rising stock and the down trend in RSI is visible. The problem is that in Nasdaq and Dow Jones you can see the same thing. The economical cycle is almost finished. You can look at the indicators. They are all slowing:
United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - July: 58.1 - Estimate 59.5 United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI - July: 55.7 - Estimate 58.6 United States Building Permits -July: 1.311 - Estimate 1.4 United States Consumer Sentiment - August: 95.3 - Estimate 98 United States New Home Sales -July: 627 - Estimate: 645 United States Existing Home Sales -July: 5.34 - Estimate 5.4 United States Durable Goods Orders - July: -1.7% - Estimate -0.5%
My view is that september will be a very big stress test for the US Market. The graphic of the Dow Jones index is very similar to the one in 1929...even the market sentiment is the same China - US trade war, Trump's impeachment, inflation rising, FED's rising rates, North Korea etc --- anything can go wrong...and from that point, the market will start fearing and puking
I would agree with you guys this stock has corrected 52% of the time in September going back to 1983!
The other 25% of the time this has Corrected in July, Aug, October
28 out of 34 years this has done so between those months.
Thats correct 77% of the time being that the smallest one was 7% and of course the bigger ones 25 - 50%!
I think this will be a bigger one.
cyberluck
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How do you feel about Elliott Wave and if you believe in it obviously you're charting it, have you ever considered that all the things you've listed are there anyways? regardless of the trend and charts? And if they are baked into the pattern why would we even discuss them? And if they are baked into the pattern (I'll repeat), does it not make you wonder how these political matters happen at the right time in the pattern which means NOTHING IS ACCIDENTAL, ORGANIC AND BASED ON CURRENT EVENTS but the other way, the feds keep strings and got a backdoor on the pattern to foresee it ahead and schedule these events at the right time. So could this predict the impeachment as a sure thing because we are ready for Wave 4 correction that is pretty steep in the larger pattern then mega wave 5 up and drop in 2020 that will hurt all of us? My goal is to get out before we hit the current correction as that's 2 years of wasted efforts and banks using my money with no return. But that's my approach. Notice how quietly we are dropping a natural correction in the Asia markets, this is what's awaiting us in US. Brace yourself peeps and if you bought anything in the past 2 years, you might want to use reason over greed, get out and get back in when we finish correcting wave 4, ride it to wave 5, drop it again and then sit and unfortunately wait until we bottom out. As much as most will wait until Nov elections, I have a feeling they will shake things up earlier. The only thing I wonder about is holiday season, naturally busy with top sales so will go back into the history before ever larger crash to see if it even mattered...after all algorithm that's baked years ago doesn't care.
Getitdoneson
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when in Sept will we see this correction you think?
marctek
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@Getitdoneson, I cannot tell exactly when in September, but what we saw in Dow and s&p from the beginning of the year is a sign of distribution. And this is a bear flag. Watch for September and October....
The other 25% of the time this has Corrected in July, Aug, October
28 out of 34 years this has done so between those months.
Thats correct 77% of the time being that the smallest one was 7% and of course the bigger ones 25 - 50%!
I think this will be a bigger one.