As you can see by the chart, I have labeled every time AAPL has deviated from its current trend and what follows right after.
This has been a consistent pattern over the last decade and I believe today is no different.
Powell reaffirmed his fight for Price Stability yesterday and will continue to do so until the mission is accomplished.
50 Year High Inflation, War, FED hiking into a slowing economy, QT, Supply Chain shocks, Sanctions/Embargoes, Energy soaring, Gas at $4 in every state in America for the first time in history.
This is not Price Stability.
It is a funny thing really,
One of the most famous quotes in Investing is, "Don't fight the FED",
But everyone only seems to listen when this suggests higher prices.
Markets work in both ways.
I called something similar back on January 20th, you can see it here:
I think we potentially are finally seeing it play out.
I feel apple may be one of the riskier plays right now. I bought some@The lowered my position as I did not feel comfortable with the risk exposure here. Apple went up on stimulus and work from home. Now that thats gone, what is holding this sucker up. Retail?
RayCharles
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Great presentation ; maybe you should point out to the absurdity of raising rates against foreign energy shock . A 10% Fed rate will NOT make gasoline cheaper , it will just crush demand . So the FED monetary tool alone does not produce an efficient effect . The only possibility to counter the energy shock is to make MUCH MORE DOMESTIC OIL AVAILABLE .Fracking more is necessary . To raise OIL OFFER is the real tool , not to crush demand with interest rate hammer .
NoOneWhoIsSomeone
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@RayCharles, Well you make some good points here, but its important to know why they are raising rates. It is not that they aren't aware of the consequences and its lack of fundamental effects on actually regaining price stability. The ultimate goal here, which is their ONLY tool, is to force the economy into a recession. Don't ignore the number of layoffs you're seeing by big companies. These are the beginning stages. And yet still, Mainstream still considers "Recession not guaranteed" or "Recession still might be a ways out". This is the perfect recipe. They don't expect it even when its right in their face. It's the only thing with a proven track record of killing inflation and even then, this is a long game. Think about it, for almost 2 years now Inflation has been steadily increasing YTY MTM, and even when it peaks it won't just come collapsing down. It will continue to drain the American people as if they weren't already broke, to begin with.
RayCharles
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@NoOneWhoIsSomeone, well here the Financial Tools like raising interest rates despite having no effect on lowering external inflation shock is a matter of Social engineering . Ounce the Powerful crush the lower and median income classes they just remind them to obey . The Bonds vigilantes ( aka as the super-powerful ) are here to guide the FED into preserving their superior capital . The Bond Vigilantes have enough clout to endure a 2-3 year slowdown-recession , not the lower-median income . The gordian knot is when the politicians needs the voters support ( nov.2023 ) they have to instruct the FED to stop hiking and go into reverse easing . I guess that until Q.1 2023 rate will rise to 4% then reverse quickly to save their seats .