From a purely technical perspective, this is just above a psychological (4 hour chart). It is still lacking enough price structure to justify a swing trade short at these prices. If over the next week, if it presents sound selling structure on the 30min to 1 Hr time frame, an attractive selling opportunity can emerge. Risk can be measured by the recent swing high at this point in time (possibly 455 area). momentum will be further confirmed on the breach of 435 which is also the first target for this short idea. The second target is 415. This scenario especially seems plausible since the S&P has been makng all time highs while this is nowhere near its all time high. I interpret this as a sign of relative weakness. At the moment the bigger picture momentum is still and validation is needed before this scenario in play.