Getting back into swing of things and looking to post consistently again.
To me, Apple looks can potentially break up or down being in this consolidation. I personally am going to wait and see how it opens on Monday. Per an Elliott Wave count of mine, above $122 I'll look for a break above $126, which would indicate for me we could be in a Wave 5 (white circle count). If price goes below $107, then I'll look for the $103.55 price area to hold. If it doesn't hold, my count target to the downside would bring price down to around $95.50 which would align with the previous (smaller degree count) green wave 4.
I'll try to keep things short:
- If can break $122, I'll look for longs;
- If price breaks down below $107, will look for shorts;
- Price target to upside = test of $131; if can break above $138, then can see price potential run to $150 ($150 would be the 1x extension for white wave 5)
- Price target to downside = test of $100; downside to $90. $90.51 is the 1x extension of red A/B (red circle count down); this also aligns great with prior degree green wave 4 and would be around the 50% retracement of White Circle Wave 3 (little much for my liking but there's plenty of buying demand down there).
Things to Note:
- The 20, 50 and 100 SMAs have consolidated towards the 200 SMA. Can very likely bounce off the 200 and support the upside bull count.
- The yearly VWAP is down around $90; aligns with a white wave 4 retrace fib levels and to a great demand buying level while also filling the gap ups.
- Volatility is low, supporting buying of options versus selling. I tend to buy near the money options a few weeks out.
My potential Plays:
- If price continues to hold above 200 SMA, will look to enter calls a month out, potentially the $120 strike with targets of 122, 130, 138, and 150
- If price begins to fall below 200 SMA or with other shorter SMAs falling under it, will look to enter puts a month out, potentially the $110 strike with targets of 107, 103, 95, and 90
To me, Apple looks can potentially break up or down being in this consolidation. I personally am going to wait and see how it opens on Monday. Per an Elliott Wave count of mine, above $122 I'll look for a break above $126, which would indicate for me we could be in a Wave 5 (white circle count). If price goes below $107, then I'll look for the $103.55 price area to hold. If it doesn't hold, my count target to the downside would bring price down to around $95.50 which would align with the previous (smaller degree count) green wave 4.
I'll try to keep things short:
- If can break $122, I'll look for longs;
- If price breaks down below $107, will look for shorts;
- Price target to upside = test of $131; if can break above $138, then can see price potential run to $150 ($150 would be the 1x extension for white wave 5)
- Price target to downside = test of $100; downside to $90. $90.51 is the 1x extension of red A/B (red circle count down); this also aligns great with prior degree green wave 4 and would be around the 50% retracement of White Circle Wave 3 (little much for my liking but there's plenty of buying demand down there).
Things to Note:
- The 20, 50 and 100 SMAs have consolidated towards the 200 SMA. Can very likely bounce off the 200 and support the upside bull count.
- The yearly VWAP is down around $90; aligns with a white wave 4 retrace fib levels and to a great demand buying level while also filling the gap ups.
- Volatility is low, supporting buying of options versus selling. I tend to buy near the money options a few weeks out.
My potential Plays:
- If price continues to hold above 200 SMA, will look to enter calls a month out, potentially the $120 strike with targets of 122, 130, 138, and 150
- If price begins to fall below 200 SMA or with other shorter SMAs falling under it, will look to enter puts a month out, potentially the $110 strike with targets of 107, 103, 95, and 90
Trade active:
In a small position: call debit spread -- bought Jan. 15 130 call / sold 140 call for cost of $1.75 ($175).
Things I'm watching:
- chart hasn't changed; currently above the Triangle Wave C invalidation line (bullish / entry area). Above this line, I'll maintain my positions.
- If price falls below $121.99 (TriW C dashed line) will either
A) exit and look for re-entry if the previous downtrend line is held as support (white down trend line that makes the top of the Triangle pattern); OR
B) will hold the position and look to potentially hedge; will take off bullish call debit spread if price falls back under the downtrend white line that makes the top of the triangle (roughly around $118 stock price)
If price can get above $125.39 (TriW A Invalidation pink dash line), I'll view this as even more bullish and begin to look for profit taking. If we can get above this price, targets up for me will be $131, then $138, then $149
Things I'm watching:
- chart hasn't changed; currently above the Triangle Wave C invalidation line (bullish / entry area). Above this line, I'll maintain my positions.
- If price falls below $121.99 (TriW C dashed line) will either
A) exit and look for re-entry if the previous downtrend line is held as support (white down trend line that makes the top of the Triangle pattern); OR
B) will hold the position and look to potentially hedge; will take off bullish call debit spread if price falls back under the downtrend white line that makes the top of the triangle (roughly around $118 stock price)
If price can get above $125.39 (TriW A Invalidation pink dash line), I'll view this as even more bullish and begin to look for profit taking. If we can get above this price, targets up for me will be $131, then $138, then $149