Price target was raised on AAPL right as RSI is topped out and price trend is ending. Price trend is currently over 45-degree angle (unsustainable). Previous price trend shows same pattern, followed by 29 day and 79 day downtrend. All red boxes are unfilled gaps in price which should get filled. I believe we may retest the 200SMA. Buying puts 30-60 days out is best in my opinion. Everything is pointing to profit taking before end of year.
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY and short AAPL.
I agree with your analysis and suggestion. The risks are setting up to the downside and I'm watching for the right opportunities. Unsure how low given AAPL's share buyback programs but I don't think the lower gaps get touched this year.
-And your disclosures aren't very optimistic lol. Keep posting
MoneyPatterns
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@trvsmrgn, Thanks for commenting. Seriously appreciate it.
Risk to downside is understatement. Same revenues as 2015. Only EPS growth is from buybacks.
I agree that lower gaps probably not filled unless big correction, then payday $$$$
Buybacks are unsustainable. If (when) the economy goes into a recession, I am betting that $1000 iPhones will fall out of favor quick.
If you have a suggestion for a better disclosure, let me know.
I have been charting for over 10 years, investing longer, and come from CFP family members.
I have multiple degrees, but I don't want to give anyone false optimism.
I put lines in the chaos, and put my money where my mouth is, but I am not a "financial advisor".
Was going for my SIE and Series 7 but considering starting side business instead.
I try to disclose if I am in the position, or just letting public see the idea.
I appreciate the constructive criticism. :)
mappycarol
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Hi Jbird 7839, I saw someone posted unusual aapl option activities on Twitter. If an institution purchased 11-29-2019 puts at $265 and Feb-2020 calls at $275, both are 1 million $ premium. What are they betting on? Is this a calendar spread?
MoneyPatterns
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@mappycarol, I look at this for Unusual Option Activity. The Vol/OI column with highest number on top is the unusual activity. barchart.com/options/unusual-activity/stocks On the BarCharts page, I also see the Feb 21, 2020 Calls (like 4000 of them).
This is not a Calendar Spread. Calendar Spread is 1 Call in Front Month and 1 Call in Back Month. 1 Sept Call and 1 Oct Call.
In my opinion, they are buying $265 Puts for 11/29 because that is a weekly cheap timeframe.
Then they are also writing (selling) Calls farther out to collect the premium, not buying them.
When AAPL drops, they will collect on the Puts and the Calls. This is smart.
My pocket book not big enough to orchestrate this, so I would not think of this.
I could be wrong...but WOW. Chart looks like AAPL going down and this could be confirmation.
MoneyPatterns
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@mappycarol, I am sooo happy you said that. The more I look at the order book on BarCharts, the more it confirms for me.
For AAPL options purchased 11/18:
All the Call strike prices are above the stock price. Like selling Calls - push price down.
All the Put strike prices are at stock price - Like buying Puts - push price down.
No one is buying a APPL Call $280 Strike price for next week. LOL. That is a someone selling a Call to collect premium.
Very happy you said to check this! Thank you!
mappycarol
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@jbird7839, Thank you for explaining this to me! If the options writer sells long term calls in huge volume, who are the buyers? Individual traders are not likely to purchase so many calls in a day.
MoneyPatterns
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@mappycarol, Selling the Call is the same as selling a Put when you expect the stock to go up.
When you sell the Put, before you buy it, you collect the premium. You need to have some equity for the purchase, but its less than buying a call.
If the stock goes up, the Puts expire worthless. But since you sold them, you keep the premium and pay nothing back.
Same goes with this AAPL Call writer selling the Calls (maybe with a Call Spread to limit the risk, buying another Call different strike price).
You know AAPL will go down. AAPL is $264 and topped out. So you sell a Call that will expire worthless in a week at $280 Strike.
In a week, AAPL may have hit $280 but it won't be there anymore.
Collect most, maybe all, the option that would expire.
Banks can do this because they have more cash on hand to cover the Call (if its uncovered).
I could be wrong but the strike prices in unusual activity, with the current price/RSI combo, tell me AAPL goes down soon.
By Xmas for sure we are lower.
mappycarol
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@jbird7839, I understand the option writer thing. I was just wondering who would buy so many $360 calls that expire on 09/18/20 when AAPL is trading at $267 today. Isn't that odd?
MoneyPatterns
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@mappycarol, Yes. That is odd. I used to think that too. But it makes sense given the price, RSI, etc, that someone would sell them because they expire worthless. Meaning AAPL is expected to go down by someone with big money.
I guess its only odd if you don't consider they are selling, not buying those calls. Crazy right! lol Shady banks.
ogdabber
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Great job! I’m waiting to get a more solid sell signal before opening a short position... while it could still surge up to $270+, I’m watching for fall below $250 and more technical indication too.
-And your disclosures aren't very optimistic lol. Keep posting