From a technical perspective, investors are taking profits and the trend is down from the highest close in November and the recent rebound brought AAPL shares back up to the high end of the standard deviation around the current down-trend. I view $100-$96 as "key support" from the past two reporting time-windows. I would cover all shorts before the next report as I don't wish to have that risk.
Tim 11:06AM EST 111.10 last AAPL Jan 9, 2015
You are taking a buyout view of AAPL with a market cap of $653B but that is overstated by some $126B. You should be using the enterprise value (Market Cap plus debt of $28.9B minus cash and investments of $155.2B, you have to include the $130.1B in international cash classified as LT Investments on the Balance Sheet). That would provide you with a proper buyout estimate of $526.7B.
This number should be divided by FCF to see owners yield. You show a Free Cash Flow of $39B while other sites like Charts and WSJ show trailing twelve months FCF of $49-50B. Using your $39b would provide a yield of 7.4%, while $50B is 9.4%. These are well beyond risk free rate returns and the market in general!
Finally, you are basing your analysis of value on historic performance. In a few days we will see the latest quarter performance which many are predicting is likely to be a blockbuster report that will likely boost the FCF and cash positions.
Like it or not, Apple is extremely undervalued especially compared to many of it's peers!
I think only a few "Real Investors" such as Warren Buffett and his grandmaster Benjamin have the "uncanny" ability to decipher and thoroughly understand how to read annual report and detect flaws
my actual poor dad also analysis annual report and evaluate whether the stock he "invested" in has business continuity or not.. but unsuccessful as a result he always buy at the top and sell at the bottom, i got dragged into it in 2011 losing my 50K. from Jan 2013 onwards i decided that annual report is a piece of #$%@#, and i go for TA which my poor dad think it doesnt work :-)
though i respect him alot as my father but in this matter, i ask him only one question and he was shut
Dad, "no matter how good and sound fundamentally a company is... when the grizzly BEAR launches an attack, solid companies too get sold down" right... he is convinced :-)
Of course know i can explain better than him. PE and other ratios just gotten to high and the amount of year to recover our investment is not worth anymore if i am right
As for the upcoming quarterly results, I believe I did say to step aside and wait for those numbers to be reported.
As for "liking it or not" - I like Apple products, but I'm not married to them. I view AAPL as the old Microsoft who has now been overtaken by GOOG because MSFT was slow to change their ways. There is an AAPL competitor out there that will surprise us all with their swiftness, keenness and ability to add value to the consumer.
Perhaps another way to look at AAPL is to sell calls at the money for as long as possible to earn a juicy return assuming AAPL can just hold onto its current valuation.