See the chart here for an example of a 15 min chart and how the targets for the short were reached in quick succession.
This update is published on a 60 min chart but some of the levels referred to are applicable the the Day chart as well.
Our previous analysis of the LT Swing Short has proven to be valid as price has been aggressively sold down to the first Intraday Long on the time-frame of the chart which coincided with a target for the Intraday Short identified. A bounce up to the next VAIS has resulted in the first taget being reached(not shown on chart) and a subsequent bounce still within the range of the original AIL is underway(Note the reaction on the 15 min chart). In the context of the 60 min chart, we expect a reaction at the next Very Aggressive Intraday Short(happening as we type) and a subsequent bounce at the next long.
Take note that there are three different shorts being sold that are represented on the chart; the LT Swing Short, the ST Short and the Intraday Short. Each of these are being sold by traders with different targets and time horizons. The intraday short has reached its first target, but not the second. If the second is not reached, there will be a retest of the ST Short and possibly the LT Swing Short. Keep in mind that the targets are price targets, not time targets.
At this point in time there are three sets of short sellers very actively selling AAPL and that is why the LT Swing Short has not been broken. As we stated in the origina analysis, AAPL is still not out of the woods yet.
Does that alter our original analysis regarding the LT for AAPL . Not at all.
If you look at the Day or Week chart for APPL you will see a progression of highs and at every one some called a high and were certain that it could not go higher. The same is happening at this price level. The possible pattern that is trying to form is an obvious encouragement to all technical traders who are shorting AAPL and is certainly causing consternation to buyers. Even if the pattern works out, and that is by no means certain at this point, it will not in and of itself constitute a change in the trend for AAPL .
Our clients were advised weeks ago of the possibility of an pattern forming because a classic pattern forms only at a new high, therefore the name. Do some research and you will see at every meaningful high on the AAPL chart an attempt to form the pattern on most of them. It is as common as a cold and most never reach their target.
The LT Swing Short was originally sold aggressively for $120 to the next long and has resulted in a new high, still within the range of the LT Swing Short. An even larger sell-off can occur without anything really changing to affect the LT analysis for AAPL .
As a heads-up, our analysis points to an intermediate target of 860 for AAPL before EOY, providing it can break the LT Swing Short within a week or so. If this target is not reached, AAPL could be in for some extended wide-range trading until a fundamental catalyst breaks it out of the range.
If we have the available time we will publish an update to the 15 min chart.