speculator
Long

AAPL - Symmetrical Triangle...poised to breakout to upside

NASDAQ:AAPL   Apple Inc.
226 3 3
-6/3 2nd Update
APPL             reaches target
Exit Position
---buy to close diagonal calls 635 expiring August
---sell to close long calls 500 expiring January 2015

Rationale: exit entire position and lock in profits and removing risk off the table and move on for next opportunity



-5/7 1st Update
APPL             breaks out of symmetrical triangle to upside and touches ~605 as a possible resistance giving an opportunity to adjust position
Adjustment
---buy to close naked puts(lock in profit on that leg) and hold remaining long calls open
---sell to open diagonal calls 635 expiring August
---set alert to 575 as a notification to take either:
1)exit entire position and preserve profits or
2)opportunity to adjust position

Adjusted position - Diagonal Bull Call Spread (635 Calls Aug '14 & 500 Call Jan '15)

Adjustment Rationale - bring in additional income selling to open calls while locking in profits on naked puts. Setting alert under AAPL             as a trigger point to either exit and preserve profits or look to adjust and continue to ride AAPL             anticipating a turn back up.
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-3/17 Original Post
Opening Synthetic Long 500 Call/Puts with January 2015 time frame...
Target 620
Stop 505

Anticipating a tightening and squeeze in the near term and then a strong quick breakout to the upside.

Time structure allows for plenty of time for trade to develop.

Execution Plan:
505 - exit for loss and move on
575 & higher - wait to bump into resistance and immediately adjust position:
Adjustment #1---buy to close short puts(for profit) and hold remaining long calls open
Monitoring AAPL             behavior at 575 support(formerly resistance):
Adjustment #2---Pullback below 575 and exiting around 560 to preserve profit and move on
or
Adjustment #2---AAPL continues up and wait for AAPL             to bump into next level of resistance and spread position

As 620 target gets closer looking to raise and tighten stop alerts to exit position as a technique to preserve profits

Note...when position become profitable - setting stop alerts and continue raising along the way to give winners a chance to run

Implied volatility near historic lows. Past 3 times AAPL's IV was this low, every time it went up ~10% in under 10 days. A big move is coming. Up or down is the big question.
Reply
Thanks for the feedback. I appreciate the comment.
Reply
Since 2-18, I've been waiting for a this triangle to b/o.... I agree, upside seems more probable but in theory, it's best to let the triangle play out.
+1 Reply
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