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TradersForecast
Sep 23, 2020 5:20 PM

AAPL pitchfork pattern analysis Long

Apple Inc.NASDAQ

Description

AAPL will likely go up towards the point where 3 pitchfork lines almost intersect (see the blue arrow).

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DISCLAIMER: Security trading involves substantial risk of loss. My analysis is not trading advice. Do your own research first and/or consult a financial advisor. I'm not responsible for any losses you may incur following my analysis.

Comment

There is a good chance that AAPL (and the market as well) will fall on Monday before resuming the upward move. Here's why I think so. I wrote an algo/strategy that gives excellent results for TECL (a leveraged 3x bull tech sector ETF). The version optimized for TECL gives 677,000% profit since 2012 in backtesting. The version optimized for SPY (and used unchanged on TECL) has about 50,000% profit (tradingview.com/chart/TECL/QOYZiqCw-TECL-ToW-Srategy-Bullish-Signal/) and this year over 90% profitable trades. Because it's so accurate it's a good gauge for the market. On Thursday at close the algo gave a bearish signal. Rather often fall follows the bearish signal one day late. For example, in forward testing the algo predicted the current fall on Sep. 1 but Sep. 2 the market went up and only on Sep. 3 the big fall happened (you can see that in the link here). Similarly, one version of the algo also gives a bearish signal on Sep. 21 and Sep. 22 the market was up and only on Sep. 23 it fell (and there is a long signal for close of Sep. 23). So the bearish signal from Thursday may very well mean that Friday the market would go up (which it did indeed; the algo also gave an intra-day bullish signal in the morning which disappeared later after the price went up) and would fall on Monday. However I expect this fall to be temporary (one day only) and I don't expect the price to fall lower than the lower pitchfork line and I expect a bullish signal from the algo at close on Monday.

Comment

AAPL and the market stayed about flat (it did fall from the opening but then it went back up and closed flat). This means either the pattern I noticed and mentioned above (bearish signals from TECL algo being 1 day early) didn't hold this time (and, indeed I saw cases when it didn't hold which is why I stated it in terms of chances: "there are good chances") and the price will continue up or it might be that the bearish signal was 2 day early and the fall will happen today. At this point I'm not sure and either I'll keep my existing VXX call or close it and buy a QQQ calendar spread (puts expiring Friday and calls expiring next month). Even if the market falls today, I expect the recovery to continue over next days/weeks.

Comment

My bullish analysis for QQQ (which applies to APPL as well) that I published this morning:

Comment

The updated QQQ analysis (which applies to AAPL as well as it's the main holding in QQQ):

Comment

(I posted this in my channel--see below or signature--but I'm posting this here as well as it's an update to this idea.) AAPL looks more bullish (as opposed to QQQ, see comments in my latest QQQ idea). It reached the bottom/support line of a pitchfork and it often bounces when it gets there. Then the red line reached a previous high but that one is rather low and the blue line is relatively close to the support line I drew. On the other hand, if AAPL stays too long at that pitchfork line (so far it crossed it on 3 consecutive days) it may break on the downside. But since AAPL is now at the intersection of 2 lines (a blue support line and a red, middle of the channel, line), it is probably less likely to break through both lines on the down side but bounce back up instead.

Comment

see updates on AAPL (bullish):
Comments
PolarHusk
Good idea. Thanks
TradersForecast
@PolarHusk, very welcome, hope it helps!
Philip-cotler
Good work
TradersForecast
LairineMedico
Good ideas..
TradersForecast
@LairineMedico, thanks, hope they help! :)
Myantman101
love the analysis, check out my publication, I have a similar trend line and fundamentals to back it up. might be worth the read!
TradersForecast
@Myantman101, thanks! I liked your analysis. I don't do much fundamental analysis but I can see that may be worthwhile.
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