NASDAQ:AAPL is starting to look like a really great short opportunity. As you can see from the chart, the bullish trend that started in 2020, broke down in 2022 and hasn't been able to confirm support above it.
We confirmed resistance on that trend line in August and now looks like we're going back to test it one more time. I'd imagine this time, it won't break through and we should see a strong downward reaction afterwards.
I think we'll see price fall after that December pivot and then bottom sometime before 2025 at the lower support level.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming year.
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Bought: AAPL 03/15/2024 150.00 P AAPL 03/15/2024 185.00 P
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Added to the $150 position
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At the top resistance level now, adding more at open.
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Puts are up 185% and 47% so far. Price bounced right off the trendline and flipped down on the pivot. Going to keep holding the puts with anticipation of $150 being the next level to get hit and then hopefully $126.
If $126 gets hit, that's when I'd like to close out these puts.
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Bought some $155 5/10P at open
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Bought 40 contracts 170P for 6/21
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Potential for big H&S top here if we see a rejection and followthrough beneath the April low.
Buying puts the day before ER wasn’t a good idea. I wouldn’t bet against the worlds biggest company
benjihyam
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@PhilipGF, All good, you win some you lose some. That's trading.
arich1282
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factor in the supply chain issues that are going to plague them going forward as they are forced to decouple from china as well as having their products shunned by the chinese in general - also been eyeing this backtest of that massive trend line. here here!
@tylerosborn003, Still think that $150 level will get tagged. We have a low timeframe head and shoulders on the 20 minute chart, and you can see the larger H&S on this chart. Could get down there or go lower.
kartik190970
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What’s your take on the this recovery today it was downgraded and still recovery to 186, retracement from here???
benjihyam
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@kartik190970, I sold out of my puts bc I was 200% in profit. Going to add them back above $190, still think the trade is valid and will continue down. Likely not until another 1-2 weeks though. Will also extend duration a bit to April instead of March and potentially add some that expire in October.
Just trading around the core idea, but there isn't anything wrong with holding imo.