To continue the analogy that AAPL was mimicking the 1987 Stock Market Peak: I have drawn out how AAPL shares are right in the middle between key support down at 440-420 and key resistance up at 520-530.
If you take the time to go back and look at the 1987 stock market rally and crash, then you will see that the current drop into the low is the equivalent to the October bottom in AAPL shares. The next important low came on Dec 4, 1987 and was a lower low, which I have labeled here for AAPL.
The general euphoria that accompanied the peak in AAPL shares is so similar to me to the 1987 peak in stocks and the subsequent price action from that time is also tracing out similar movements. I hope we can profit from history and the patterns of human behavior that cause patterns to repeat themselves.
Good fortune to you. Risk 20 points when taking short positions. And risk 20 points when taking long positions. Donate 10% of your gross profits to your favorite charity.
Cheers.
Tim 12:39AM EST Tuesday, Feb 12, 2013
Comments
timwest
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If I just shift the black forecasted price action down to the current price you will see the swings and magnitudes match up, but I clearly had foresaw a bit more price strength.
It looks like the action to right now is presenting us with a low-risk buy entry here with 60-80 points of upside versus only about 20-30 points of downside risk.
Agree?? Disagree??
littleriver
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I agree but would feel better about taking a position post earnings after seeing IBM fall today. AAPL due to report on the 4-23 after market. Not looking very optimistic going into earnings.
timwest
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This long-side-trade is working very well from the 430-432 entry with news supporting the advance and with relative strength to the major averages. Technicians are picking up on the break of the trendline, so the rally is likely to stall a bit while it builds for a move up to the "SELL SHORT ZONE". 12:17PM Monday, March 18, 2013
timwest
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Some news released on AAPL 38 minutes ago that I see on Bloomberg about AAPL may outline what they will do with their cash hoard by next month. AAPL made a big jump after I posted to buy it, so I found this news as it may explain the unusual rally.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Forgot about this chart suggestion... nice call here
timwest
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I think this is a good bottom in AAPL shares here. This is a logical bottom that is flushing out weak holders. The last 10% rally is wiped out and hopes for a rebound appear to be gone. The tone and pace of stories around the blogs are more in a give-up stage, which is indicative of a bottom. I'd like to see AAPL announce that they will buy Tesla for a billion dollar premium over the last $3 billion price to get everyone excited about an iCar!!! I could see AAPL making major innovative strides in how we all interact and communicate with our cars. There is so much untapped potential in the automobile. What's $3 billion or $4 billion to Apple? A drop in the pan. Forget Apple TV. Apple-CARS!!!
QuantitativeExhaustion
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You should be in M&A
timwest
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For what Apple has done with the Sony Walkman and the PC, imagine what they could do with the electric car or just a plain old diesel or gas automobile. Thanks for the comment :-)
meos
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:) Nice.
timwest
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It is a good spot to buy - right in the "box" now.
It looks like the action to right now is presenting us with a low-risk buy entry here with 60-80 points of upside versus only about 20-30 points of downside risk.
Agree?? Disagree??